How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in Hydrological ensemble prediction

The skill of a forecast can be assessed by comparing the relative proximity of both the forecast and a benchmark to the observations. Example benchmarks include climatology or a naïve forecast. Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) are currently transforming the hydrological forecasting environment but in this new field there is little information to guide researchers and operational forecasters on how benchmarks can be best used to evaluate their probabilistic forecasts. In this study, it is identified that the forecast skill calculated can vary depending on the benchmark selected and that the selection of a benchmark for determining forecasting system skill is sensitive to a number of hydrological and system factors. A benchmark intercomparison experiment is then undertaken using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), a reference forecasting system and a suite of 23 different methods to derive benchmarks. The benchmarks are assessed within the operational set-up of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to determine those that are ‘toughest to beat’ and so give the most robust discrimination of forecast skill, particularly for the spatial average fields that EFAS relies upon. Evaluating against an observed discharge proxy the benchmark that has most utility for EFAS and avoids the most naïve skill across different hydrological situations is found to be meteorological persistency. This benchmark uses the latest meteorological observations of precipitation and temperature to drive the hydrological model. Hydrological long term average benchmarks, which are currently used in EFAS, are very easily beaten by the forecasting system and the use of these produces much naïve skill. When decomposed into seasons, the advanced meteorological benchmarks, which make use of meteorological observations from the past 20 years at the same calendar date, have the most skill discrimination. They are also good at discriminating skill in low flows and for all catchment sizes. Simpler meteorological benchmarks are particularly useful for high flows. Recommendations for EFAS are to move to routine use of meteorological persistency, an advanced meteorological benchmark and a simple meteorological benchmark in order to provide a robust evaluation of forecast skill. This work provides the first comprehensive evidence on how benchmarks can be used in evaluation of skill in probabilistic hydrological forecasts and which benchmarks are most useful for skill discrimination and avoidance of naïve skill in a large scale HEPS. It is recommended that all HEPS use the evidence and methodology provided here to evaluate which benchmarks to employ; so forecasters can have trust in their skill evaluation and will have confidence that their forecasts are indeed better

Changes in the variability and periodicity of precipitation in Scotland

This paper analyses the temporal and spatial changes in the amount and variability of rainfall in Scotland. The sequential Mann–Kendall test reveals that total annual precipitation has increased across Scotland since the 1970s with increasing trends in variability beginning between the mid-1960s and the mid-1970s. Whilst temporally consistent increasing trends in precipitation totals prevail in the West, many weather stations in the East have experienced subsequent trend turning points in the following two decades, explaining the larger magnitude of the trends in western Scotland in recent decades. Trend analyses on six measures of rainfall variability indicate an increase in rainfall variability during the period 1961–2000, as measured by the intra-annual variance, the winter to summer precipitation ratio and the annual cumulative sum range, with decreasing trends observed in the number of dry days. Periodicities associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation could explain the observed temporal variability of rainfall

Hyaluronan carried by tumor-derived microvesicles induces IL-10 production in classical CD14⁺⁺ CD16^- monocytes via PI3K/Akt/mTOR-dependent signalling pathway.

Tumor-derived microvesicles (TMV) can mimic effects of tumor cells leading to an increased anti-inflammatory cytokine production, such as interleukin 10 (IL-10), by tumor-infiltrating monocytes and macrophages. Yet, the mechanism of IL-10 induction by TMV in monocytes remains unclear. The co-incubation of TMV derived from the human pancreas carcinoma cell line (HPC-4) with human monocytes resulted in a nearly 30-fold increase in IL-10 protein production. This effect operates at the level of transcription since monocytes transduced with an adenovirus containing IL-10-promoter luciferase reporter gene showed a 5-fold induction of luciferase activity after treatment with TMV. Since tumor cells can express hyaluronan (HA), which participates in tumor invasion and metastases, we have tested its effect on IL-10 expression. We showed that HA at the concentration of 100μg/ml induces IL-10 protein expression and the IL-10 promoter activation in monocytes. Moreover, hyaluronidase treatment of TMV reduced IL-10 protein production by 50% and promoter activity by 40%. Inhibitors of the PI3K/Akt/mTOR pathway reduced both, TMV-induced IL-10 promoter activity and protein production, and the same was observed in monocytes when stimulated by HPC-4 cells or HA. Inhibition of PI3K activity down-regulated phosphorylation of the Akt and (to a lesser extent) mTOR proteins in monocytes following TMV or HA stimulation. When comparing monocyte subsets, TMV induced IL-10 protein and mRNA synthesis only in classical CD14(++)CD16(-) but not in CD16-positive monocytes. Our data show that TMV induce IL-10 synthesis in human classical monocytes via HA, which, in turn, activates the PI3K/Akt/mTOR pathway

Preparations of intravenous immunoglobulins diminish the number and proinflammatory response of CD14⁺CD16^++ monocytes in common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) patients.

We have studied the effect of intravenous immunoglobulins (IVIG) on monocyte subpopulations and cytokine production in patients with CVID. The absolute number of CD14(+)CD16(++) monocytes decreased on average 2.5-fold 4h after IVIG and after 20h returned to the baseline. The cytokine level in the supernatants of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) after ex vivo LPS stimulation demonstrated the >2-fold decrease in TNF production 4h after IVIG. The TNF expression, which is higher in the CD14(+)CD16(++) monocytes, was decreased in these cells by IVIG in 4/7 CVID cases. In vitro exposure of the healthy individuals' monocytes to the IVIG preparation resulted in reduced TNF production, which was overcome by blockade of the FcγRIIB in the CD14(+)CD16(++) CD32B(high) monocytes. Our data suggest that reduction in the number of CD14(+)CD16(++) monocytes and the blockade of their cytokine production via triggering CD32B can contribute to the anti-inflammatory action of IVIG