On the skill of raw and post-processed ensemble seasonal meteorological forecasts in Denmark

This study analyzes the quality of the raw and post-processed seasonal forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System 4. The focus is given to Denmark, located in a region where seasonal forecasting is of special difficulty. The extent to which there are improvements after post-processing is investigated. We make use of two techniques, namely linear scaling or delta change (LS) and quantile mapping (QM), to daily bias correct seasonal ensemble predictions of hydrologically relevant variables such as precipitation, temperature and reference evapotranspiration (ET0). Qualities of importance in this study are the reduction of bias and the improvement in accuracy and sharpness over ensemble climatology. Statistical consistency and its improvement is also examined. Raw forecasts exhibit biases in the mean that have a spatiotemporal variability more pronounced for precipitation and temperature. This variability is more stable for ET0 with a consistent positive bias. Accuracy is higher than ensemble climatology for some months at the first month lead time only and, in general, ECMWF System 4 forecasts tend to be sharper. ET0 also exhibits an underdispersion issue, i.e., forecasts are narrower than their true uncertainty level. After correction, reductions in the mean are seen. This, however, is not enough to ensure an overall higher level of skill in terms of accuracy, although modest improvements are seen for temperature and ET0, mainly at the first month lead time. QM is better suited to improve statistical consistency of forecasts that exhibit dispersion issues, i.e., when forecasts are consistently overconfident. Furthermore, it also enhances the accuracy of the monthly number of dry days to a higher extent than LS. Caution is advised when applying a multiplicative factor to bias correct variables such as precipitation. It may overestimate the ability that LS has in improving sharpness when a positive bias in the mean exists.</p

Uncertainty in hydrological signatures for gauged and ungauged catchments

Reliable information about hydrological behavior is needed for water‐resource management and scientific investigations. Hydrological signatures quantify catchment behavior as index values, and can be predicted for ungauged catchments using a regionalization procedure. The prediction reliability is affected by data uncertainties for the gauged catchments used in prediction and by uncertainties in the regionalization procedure. We quantified signature uncertainty stemming from discharge data uncertainty for 43 UK catchments and propagated these uncertainties in signature regionalization, while accounting for regionalization uncertainty with a weighted‐pooling‐group approach. Discharge uncertainty was estimated using Monte Carlo sampling of multiple feasible rating curves. For each sampled rating curve, a discharge time series was calculated and used in deriving the gauged signature uncertainty distribution. We found that the gauged uncertainty varied with signature type, local measurement conditions and catchment behavior, with the highest uncertainties (median relative uncertainty ±30–40% across all catchments) for signatures measuring high‐ and low‐flow magnitude and dynamics. Our regionalization method allowed assessing the role and relative magnitudes of the gauged and regionalized uncertainty sources in shaping the signature uncertainty distributions predicted for catchments treated as ungauged. We found that (1) if the gauged uncertainties were neglected there was a clear risk of overconditioning the regionalization inference, e.g., by attributing catchment differences resulting from gauged uncertainty to differences in catchment behavior, and (2) uncertainty in the regionalization results was lower for signatures measuring flow distribution (e.g., mean flow) than flow dynamics (e.g., autocorrelation), and for average flows (and then high flows) compared to low flows.Key Points:We quantify impact of data uncertainty on signatures and their regionalizationMedian signature uncertainty ±10–40%, and highly variable across catchmentsNeglecting gauging uncertainty causes overconditioning of regionalizationPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/137249/1/wrcr21917-sup-0001-2015WR017635-s01.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/137249/2/wrcr21917.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/137249/3/wrcr21917_am.pd

Structure Studies of 13Be^{13}\text{Be} from the 12^{12}Be(d,p) reaction in inverse kinematics on a solid deuteron target

The low-lying structure of $^{13}$Be has remained an enigma for decades. Despite numerous experimental and theoretical studies, large inconsistencies remain. Being both unbound, and one neutron away from $^{14}$Be, the heaviest bound beryllium nucleus, $^{13}$Be is difficult to study through simple reactions with weak radioactive ion beams or more complex reactions with stable-ion beams. Here, we present the results of a study using the $^{12}$Be(d,p)$^{13}$Be reaction in inverse kinematics using a 9.5~MeV per nucleon $^{12}$Be beam from the ISAC-II facility. The solid deuteron target of IRIS was used to achieve an increased areal thickness compared to conventional deuterated polyethylene targets. The Q-value spectrum below -4.4~MeV was analyzed using a Bayesian method with GEANT4 simulations. A three-point angular distribution with the same Q-value gate was fit with a mixture of $s$- and $p$-wave, $s$- and $d$-wave, or pure $p$-wave transfer. The Q-value spectrum was also compared with GEANT simulations obtained using the energies and widths of states reported in four previous works. It was found that our results are incompatible with works that revealed a wide $5/2^+$ resonance but shows better agreement with ones that reported a narrower width.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figure

TRPA1 Is a Polyunsaturated Fatty Acid Sensor in Mammals

Fatty acids can act as important signaling molecules regulating diverse physiological processes. Our understanding, however, of fatty acid signaling mechanisms and receptor targets remains incomplete. Here we show that Transient Receptor Potential Ankyrin 1 (TRPA1), a cation channel expressed in sensory neurons and gut tissues, functions as a sensor of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) in vitro and in vivo. PUFAs, containing at least 18 carbon atoms and three unsaturated bonds, activate TRPA1 to excite primary sensory neurons and enteroendocrine cells. Moreover, behavioral aversion to PUFAs is absent in TRPA1-null mice. Further, sustained or repeated agonism with PUFAs leads to TRPA1 desensitization. PUFAs activate TRPA1 non-covalently and independently of known ligand binding domains located in the N-terminus and 5th transmembrane region. PUFA sensitivity is restricted to mammalian (rodent and human) TRPA1 channels, as the drosophila and zebrafish TRPA1 orthologs do not respond to DHA. We propose that PUFA-sensing by mammalian TRPA1 may regulate pain and gastrointestinal functions

The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean

Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use are difficult, because of multiple interacting pressures, uncertain projections, and a lack of test cases for management. We argue that the Baltic Sea can serve as a time machine to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration and early implementation of cross-border environmental management to address these problems. The Baltic Sea also stands out in providing a strong scientific foundation and accessibility to long-term data series that provide a unique opportunity to assess the efficacy of management actions to address the breakdown of ecosystem functions. Trend reversals such as the return of top predators, recovering fish stocks, and reduced input of nutrient and harmful substances could be achieved only by implementing an international, cooperative governance structure transcending its complex multistate policy setting, with integrated management of watershed and sea. The Baltic Sea also demonstrates how rapidly progressing global pressures, particularly warming of Baltic waters and the surrounding catchment area, can offset the efficacy of current management approaches. This situation calls for management that is (i) conservative to provide a buffer against regionally unmanageable global perturbations, (ii) adaptive to react to new management challenges, and, ultimately, (iii) multisectorial and integrative to address conflicts associated with economic trade-offs

The INtegrated CAtchment model of phosphorus dynamics (INCA-P): description and demonstration of new model structure and equations

INCA-P is a dynamic, catchment-scale phosphorus model which has been widely applied during the last decade. Since its original release in 2002, the model structure and equations have been significantly altered during several development phases. Here, we provide the first full model description since 2002 and then test the latest version of the model (v1.4.4) in a small rural catchment in northeast Scotland. The particulate phosphorus simulation was much improved compared to previous model versions, whilst the latest sorption equations allowed us to explore the potential time lags between reductions in terrestrial inputs and improvements in surface water quality, an issue of key policy relevance. The model is particularly suitable for use as a research tool, but should only be used to inform policy and land management in data-rich areas, where parameters and processes can be well-constrained. More long-term data is needed to parameterise dynamic models and test their predictions