Interest rate pass-through in Turkey and impact of global financial crisis: asymmetric threshold cointegration analysis

Cataloged from PDF version of article.This paper aims to investigate the interest rate pass-through of monetary policy rate to banking retail rates in Turkey by employing the asymmetric threshold autoregressive (TAR) and momentum threshold autoegressive (MTAR) procedures introduced by Enders and Siklos (2001). Over the period December 2001 to April 2011, the empirical results of asymmetric threshold cointegration analysis suggest that there exist significant and complete pass-through between policy rate and loan rates. Positive and negative departures from the equilibrium converge to long run path almost at the same speed. Pace of convergence is about two to three months for all loan rates. Policy rate has significant short run impact on loan rates. Our analysis revealed that there is no significant relationship between policy rate and bank deposit rates due to sluggish adjustment of deposit rates. Lastly, the speed and behavior of interest rate pass-through between policy rate and loan rates did not change when we encounter the effect of 2008 financial crisis. Having a banking sector dominated financial system in Turkey, the results suggest that banks adjust loan rates faster than deposit rates. This indicates that Central Bank can affect the consumption behavior of people, in other words aggregate demand through loan rates

Productivity and growth in an unstable emerging market economy: The case of Turkey, 1960-2004

This paper explores sources of growth in the Turkish economy by performing growth accounting exercises over the 1960-2004 period and relevant subperiods. It also analyzes the role of a number of important policy-related factors, such as infrastructure investment, macroeconomic instability, and imports, on total factor productivity (TFP) by performing cointegration and impulse response analyses. The results suggest that both TFP and capital accumulation were crucial sources of growth during the sample period. Nevertheless, TFP growth displayed enormous variation from 1960 to 2004. The descriptive and empirical evidence suggests that TFP is positively affected by imports and public infrastructure investment and negatively affected by macroeconomic instability. Copyright © 2009 M.E. Sharpe, Inc. All rights reserved

Determinants of workers' remittances: The case of Turkey

Workers ' remittance flows to Turkey have dramatically increased since the 1960s, constituting a significant proportion of imports. The empirical evidence in this paper indicates that black market premium, interest rate differential, inflation rate, growth, home and host country income levels, and periods of military administration in Turkey have significantly affected these flows. Among them, the negatively significant effects of the black market premium, inflation, and a dummy for periods of military administration point at the importance of sound exchange rate policies and economic and political stability in attracting remittance flows. In addition, both investment and consumption-smoothing motives are observed, though the former of which appears more prevalent after the 1980s. © 2005 M.E. Sharpe, Inc. All rights reserved

Application of periodogram-based cointegration test for the analysis of the services and goods sector inflations

Cataloged from PDF version of article.The differing dynamics of the inflations of the services and goods sectors has been of major concern in Turkey. The persistence of the services sector inflation during disinflation periods hampered the efforts of the Central Bank of Turkey of hitting inflation targets in a country with long-lasting high inflation experience. In search of a possible long-run relationship between the services and goods sectors’ inflations, this paper employs a method based on periodograms of the series in addition to time series tools. A periodogram-based test has pros over conventional tests; this test is model-free, seasonally robust and mean invariant. Empirical findings obtained from the methods employed in this study, Engle-Granger’s and Johansen’s conventional long-run time series tools as well as periodogram based test, suggest that services and goods sector inflations in Turkey are not cointegrated

The role of macroeconomic instability in public and private capital accumulation and growth: the case of Turkey 1963-1999

This study investigates the empirical relationship(s) between macroeconomic instability, public and private capital accumulation and growth in Turkey over the period 1963-1999. Time series econometric techniques. such as cointegration and impulse response analysis, are used. The results of this paper suggest that the chronic and increasing macroeconomic instability of the Turkish economy has seriously affected her capital formation and growth. Furthermore, the Turkish experience indicates that chronic macroeconomic instability seems to be a serious impediment to public investment, especially to its infrastructural component, and shatters, or even reverses. the cornplementarity between public and private investment in the long run

Dynamics of macroeconomic adjustment in a globalized developing economy: Growth, accumulation and distribution, Turkey 1969-1999

Our purpose in this paper is to establish stylized facts of the Turkish macroeconomic adjustments using data from 1969 to 1999 We adopt a traditional a priori definition of business cycles as cyclical co-movements of economic variables such as public, private and construction investments, trade balance, labour productivity, wages and fiscal accounts with the cyclical component of real GDP. We also incorporate in our analysis an investigation of the cyclical components of exchange rates, interest rates, price inflation, and the monetary aggregates. Our quantitative findings reveal a robust and significant positive relationship between public and private investments and real GDP growth, suggesting the presence of "crowding in" effects of public investment. Trend growth of manufacturing wages and average labour productivity are loosely associated over the whole period, and the rapid gains in productivity in the post-1980 reform era are not observed to be materialized as gains in remunerations of wage labour We also find a significant negative correlation of manufacturing wages with merchandise exports and the exchange rate; and document further evidence of the strong negative correlation between variations in consumer prices and production

The impact of the liberalization program on the price-cost margin and investment of Turkey's manufacturing sector after 1980

In this paper we investigate the structural consequences of the post-1980 outward-orientation on the market concentration and accumulation patterns in the Turkish manufacturing industries. Using various panel data procedures over twenty-nine subsectors of Turkish manufacturing for the 1980-1996 period, we focus on three sets of issues: (1) the effect of openness on the extent of market concentration as measured in CR4 ratios; (2) the behavior of gross profit margins (markups) in relation to openness, concentration ratios, and real wage costs; and (3) the behavior of sectoral real investments (by destination) in relation to the profit margins, real wage costs, and the openness indicator

A novel one-pot, three-component reaction for the synthesis of isocoumarin-condensed pyrazoles

The one-pot, three-component reaction of substituted homophthalic anhydrides with hydrazine in DMF as solvent and reactant, at reflux temperature, afforded isochromeno[3,4-c]pyrazole-5(2H)-one derivatives in high yields. The mechanism and roles of the substrates were investigated and it was found that cyclic hydrazides were formed as intermediates