Factors affecting urban demand for live sheep: The case of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

As the share of small ruminant meat, especially sheep, in the demand and consumption of meat in general grows, information about consumer expenditure behaviour and demand parameters for live sheep will be valuable for several interest groups in the sheep industry. Using the Heckman two-stage approach, this study shows that sheep prices and household income, as well as socio-demographic factors, including household size and composition, significantly affect the likelihood of buying live sheep and expenditures on live sheep. Projections of live sheep demand and supply in Addis Ababa in 2010 and 2020 show that sheep producers in Addis Ababa alone will be able to meet up to only 27% of the demand

Impacts of HIV/AIDS on Labor Allocation and Crop Diversity : do Stages of the Disease Matter?

This paper deals with the impact of HIV/AIDS on labor allocation and crop diversity. The study is based on an in-depth analysis of 4 case studies in Ethiopia. A novel element in the study is the emphasis on the distinction of various stages in which the disease affects families. Results show that impact on labor allocation very much depends on the various stages of the disease and which family member (or members) is affected. Also land tenure plays an important role, because of the options of having sharecropping contracts or opportunities for off-farm labour. This has implications for the intervention strategies in the various phases of the disease, both for men and women

The impact of alternative delivery strategies for novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

BackgroundTuberculosis is a leading infectious cause of death worldwide. Novel vaccines will be required to reach global targets and reverse setbacks resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimated the impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) in several delivery scenarios.MethodsWe calibrated a tuberculosis model to 105 LMICs (accounting for 93% of global incidence). Vaccine scenarios were implemented as the base-case (routine vaccination of those aged 9 years and one-off vaccination for those aged 10 years and older, with country-specific introduction between 2028 and 2047, and 5-year scale-up to target coverage); accelerated scale-up similar to the base-case, but with all countries introducing vaccines in 2025, with instant scale-up; and routine-only (similar to the base-case, but including routine vaccination only). Vaccines were assumed to protect against disease for 10 years, with 50% efficacy.FindingsThe base-case scenario would prevent 44·0 million (95% uncertainty range 37·2–51·6) tuberculosis cases and 5·0 million (4·6–5·4) tuberculosis deaths before 2050, compared with equivalent estimates of cases and deaths that would be predicted to occur before 2050 with no new vaccine introduction (the baseline scenario). The accelerated scale-up scenario would prevent 65·5 million (55·6–76·0) cases and 7·9 million (7·3–8·5) deaths before 2050, relative to baseline. The routine-only scenario would prevent 8·8 million (95% uncertainty range 7·6–10·1) cases and 1·1 million (0·9–1·2) deaths before 2050, relative to baseline.InterpretationOur results suggest novel tuberculosis vaccines could have substantial impact, which will vary depending on delivery strategy. Including a one-off vaccination campaign will be crucial for rapid impact. Accelerated introduction—at a pace similar to that seen for COVID-19 vaccines—would increase the number of lives saved before 2050 by around 60%. Investment is required to support vaccine development, manufacturing, prompt introduction, and scale-up

Defining a migrant-inclusive tuberculosis research agenda to end TB.

BACKGROUND: Pillar 3 of the End TB Strategy calls for the promotion of research and innovation at the country level to facilitate improved implementation of existing and novel interventions to end tuberculosis (TB). In an era of increasing cross-border migration, there is a specific need to integrate migration-related issues into national TB research agendas. The objective of the present review is to provide a conceptual framework to guide countries in the development and operationalization of a migrant-inclusive TB research agenda. METHODS: We conducted a literature review, complemented by expert opinion and the previous articles in this State of the Art series, to identify important themes central to migration-related TB. We categorized these themes into a framework for a migration-inclusive global TB research agenda across a comprehensive spectrum of research. We developed this conceptual framework taking into account: 1) the biomedical, social and structural determinants of TB; 2) the epidemiologic impact of the migration pathway; and 3) the feasibility of various types of research based on a country's capacity. DISCUSSION: The conceptual framework presented here is based on the key principle that migrants are not inherently different from other populations in terms of susceptibility to known TB determinants, but that they often have exacerbated or additional risks related to their country of origin and the migration process, which must be accounted for in developing comprehensive TB prevention and care strategies. A migrant-inclusive research agenda should systematically consider this wider context to have the highest impact

Defining a migrant-inclusive tuberculosis research agenda to end TB.

BACKGROUND: Pillar 3 of the End TB Strategy calls for the promotion of research and innovation at the country level to facilitate improved implementation of existing and novel interventions to end tuberculosis (TB). In an era of increasing cross-border migration, there is a specific need to integrate migration-related issues into national TB research agendas. The objective of the present review is to provide a conceptual framework to guide countries in the development and operationalization of a migrant-inclusive TB research agenda. METHODS: We conducted a literature review, complemented by expert opinion and the previous articles in this State of the Art series, to identify important themes central to migration-related TB. We categorized these themes into a framework for a migration-inclusive global TB research agenda across a comprehensive spectrum of research. We developed this conceptual framework taking into account: 1) the biomedical, social and structural determinants of TB; 2) the epidemiologic impact of the migration pathway; and 3) the feasibility of various types of research based on a country's capacity. DISCUSSION: The conceptual framework presented here is based on the key principle that migrants are not inherently different from other populations in terms of susceptibility to known TB determinants, but that they often have exacerbated or additional risks related to their country of origin and the migration process, which must be accounted for in developing comprehensive TB prevention and care strategies. A migrant-inclusive research agenda should systematically consider this wider context to have the highest impact

The Potential of Medical Abortion to Reduce Maternal Mortality in Africa: What Benefits for Tanzania and Ethiopia?

BACKGROUND: Unsafe abortion is estimated to account for 13% of maternal mortality globally. Medical abortion is a safe alternative. METHODS: By estimating mortality risks for unsafe and medical abortion and childbirth for Tanzania and Ethiopia, we modelled changes in maternal mortality that are achievable if unsafe abortion were replaced by medical abortion. We selected Ethiopia and Tanzania because of their high maternal mortality ratios (MMRatios) and contrasting situations regarding health care provision and abortion legislation. We focused on misoprostol-only regimens due to the drug's low cost and accessibility. We included the impact of medical abortion on women who would otherwise choose unsafe abortion and on women with unwanted/mistimed pregnancies who would otherwise carry to term. RESULTS: Thousands of lives could be saved each year in each country by implementing medical abortion using misoprostol (2122 in Tanzania and 2551 in Ethiopia assuming coverage equals family planning services levels: 56% for Tanzania, 31% for Ethiopia). Changes in MMRatios would be less pronounced because the intervention would also affect national birth rates. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first analysis of impact of medical abortion provision which takes into account additional potential users other than those currently using unsafe abortion. Thousands of women's lives could be saved, but this may not be reflected in as substantial changes in MMRatios because of medical abortion's demographic impact. Therefore policy makers must be aware of the inability of some traditional measures of maternal mortality to detect the real benefits offered by such an intervention

Impact of dietary patterns, individual and workplace characteristics on blood pressure status among civil servants in Bida and Wushishi communities of Niger State, Nigeria

The global burden estimate of hypertension is alarming and results in several million deaths annually. A high incidence of sudden deaths from cardiovascular diseases in the civil workforce in Nigeria is often reported. However, the associations between Dietary Patterns (DPs), individual, and workplace characteristics of hypertension among this workforce have not been fully explored. This study aimed to identify DP in the Bida and Wushishi Communities of Niger State and establish its relationship with hypertension along with other individual and workplace characteristics. Factor analysis was used to establish DP, Chi-square test to identify their relationships with hypertension, and logistic regression to determine the predictor risk factors. The prevalence of hypertension was 43.7%; mean weight, height, and body fat were: 72.8±15 kg, 166±8.9 mm and 30.4%, respectively. Three DPs: “Efficient Diet,” “Local diet,” and “Energy Boost Diet” were identified. The factor loading scores for these factors were divided into quintiles Q1–Q5; none of them had a significant effect on hypertension status. Conversely, increase in age, the Ministry, Department, and Agency (MDA) of employment, frequency of eating in restaurants, and obesity were identified as significant risk factors. After adjusting for confounders (age, body mass index, MDA, and eating habits), a high score (Q5) in “efficient diet pattern” was significantly related to a lower likelihood of hypertension than a low score (Q1). The prevalence of hypertension among the participants was relatively very high. An increase in age and working in educational sector were risk factors associated with hypertension. Therefore, it is recommended that civil servants engage in frequent exercise and undergo regular medical checkups, especially as they get older. These findings highlight the need for large-scale assessment of the impact of variables considered in this study on hypertension, among the civil workforce across Niger state and Nigeria

The cost and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is preventable and curable but eliminating it has proven challenging. Safe and effective TB vaccines that can rapidly reduce disease burden are essential for achieving TB elimination. We assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel TB vaccines in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a system of epidemiological and economic models, calibrated to demographic, epidemiological, and health service data in 105 LMICs. For each country, we assessed the likely future course of TB-related outcomes under several vaccine introduction scenarios, compared to a "no-new-vaccine" counterfactual. Vaccine scenarios considered 2 vaccine product profiles (1 targeted at infants, 1 at adolescents/adults), both assumed to prevent progression to active TB. Key economic inputs were derived from the Global Health Cost Consortium, World Health Organization (WHO) patient cost surveys, and the published literature. We estimated the incremental impact of vaccine introduction for a range of health and economic outcomes. In the base-case, we assumed a vaccine price of $4.60 and used a 1× per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) cost-effectiveness threshold (both varied in sensitivity analyses). Vaccine introduction was estimated to require substantial near-term resources, offset by future cost-savings from averted TB burden. From a health system perspective, adolescent/adult vaccination was cost-effective in 64 of 105 LMICs. From a societal perspective (including productivity gains and averted patient costs), adolescent/adult vaccination was projected to be cost-effective in 73 of 105 LMICs and cost-saving in 58 of 105 LMICs, including 96$283 to 474 billion in economic benefits by 2050. Limited data availability required assumptions and extrapolations that may omit important country-level heterogeneity in epidemiology and costs. CONCLUSIONS: TB vaccination would be highly impactful and cost-effective in most LMICs. Further efforts are needed for future development, adoption, and implementation of novel TB vaccines