Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the 21st century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include: warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land-use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large scale water withdrawals, land use and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that Integrated Assessment Models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts

Drought-sensitivity of fine dust in the U.S. Southwest: Implications for air quality and public health under future climate change

We investigate the present-day sensitivity of fine dust levels in the U.S. Southwest to regional drought conditions and use the observed relationships to assess future changes in fine dust levels and associated health impacts under climate change. Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis reveals that the most dominant mode of fine dust interannual variability for each season consists of a pattern of large-scale co-variability across the Southwest. This mode is strongly correlated to the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) accumulated over 1-6 months in local and surrounding regions spanning the major North American deserts. Across the seasons, a unit decrease in 2-month SPEI averaged over the U.S. Southwest and northern Mexico is significantly associated with increases in Southwest fine dust of 0.22-0.43 μg m-3. We apply these sensitivities to statistically downscaled meteorological output from 22 climate models following two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and project future increases in seasonal mean fine dust of 0.04-0.10 μg m-3 (5-8%) under RCP2.6 and 0.15-0.55 μg m-3 (26-46%) under RCP8.5 relative to the present-day (2076-2095 vs. 1996-2015). Combined with the same projections of future population and baseline incidence rates, annual premature mortality attributable to fine dust exposure could increase by 140 (24%) deaths under RCP2.6 and 750 (130%) deaths under RCP8.5 for adults aged ≥30 years, and annual hospitalizations due to cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses could increase by 170 (59%) admissions under RCP2.6 and 860 (300%) admissions under RCP8.5 for adults aged ≥65 years in the Southwest relative to the present-day. Our results highlight a climate penalty that has important socioeconomic and policy implications for the U.S. Southwest but is not yet widely recognized

Development and evaluation of a physics-based windblown dust emission scheme implemented in the CMAQ modeling system

Abstract A new windblown dust emission treatment was incorporated in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system. This new model treatment has been built upon previously developed physics‐based parameterization schemes from the literature. A distinct and novel feature of this scheme, however, is the incorporation of a newly developed dynamic relation for the surface roughness length relevant to small‐scale dust generation processes. Through this implementation, the effect of nonerodible elements on the local flow acceleration, drag partitioning, and surface coverage protection is modeled in a physically based and consistent manner. Careful attention is paid in integrating the new windblown dust treatment in the CMAQ model to ensure that the required input parameters are correctly configured. To test the performance of the new dust module in CMAQ, the entire year 2011 is simulated for the continental United States, with particular emphasis on the southwestern United States (SWUS) where windblown dust concentrations are relatively large. Overall, the model shows good performance with the daily mean bias of soil concentrations fluctuating in the range of ±1 µg m−3 for the entire year. Springtime soil concentrations are in quite good agreement (normalized mean bias of 8.3%) with observations, while moderate to high underestimation of soil concentration is seen in the summertime. The latter is attributed to the issue of representing the convective dust storms in summertime. Evaluations against observations for seven elevated dust events in the SWUS indicate that the new windblown dust treatment is capable of capturing spatial and temporal characteristics of dust outbreaks