Econometrics

Since the last decade we live in a digitalized world where many actions in human and economic life are monitored. This produces a continuous stream of new, rich and high quality data in the form of panels, repeated cross-sections and long time series . These data resources are available to many researchers at a low cost. This new erais fascinating for econometricians who can adress many open economic questions. To do so, new models are developed that call for elaborate estimation techniques. Fast personal computers play an integral part in making it possible to deal with this increased complexity. --

A comparison of forecasting procedures for macroeconomic series: the contribution of structural break models

This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. These models differ in their treatment of the break process, the parameters defining the model which applies in each regime and the out-of-sample probability of a break occurring. In an extensive empirical evaluation involving many important macroeconomic time series, we demonstrate the presence of structural breaks and their importance for forecasting in the vast majority of cases. However, we find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of structural breaks. In many cases, the formal modeling of the break process is important in achieving good forecast performance. However, there are also many cases where simple, rolling OLS forecasts perform well.forecasting, change-points, Markov switching, Bayesian inference

Bayesian inference with an adaptive proposal density for GARCH models

We perform the Bayesian inference of a GARCH model by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with an adaptive proposal density. The adaptive proposal density is assumed to be the Student's t-distribution and the distribution parameters are evaluated by using the data sampled during the simulation. We apply the method for the QGARCH model which is one of asymmetric GARCH models and make empirical studies for for Nikkei 225, DAX and Hang indexes. We find that autocorrelation times from our method are very small, thus the method is very efficient for generating uncorrelated Monte Carlo data. The results from the QGARCH model show that all the three indexes show the leverage effect, i.e. the volatility is high after negative observations

Ignition of thermally sensitive explosives between a contact surface and a shock

The dynamics of ignition between a contact surface and a shock wave is investigated using a one-step reaction model with Arrhenius kinetics. Both large activation energy asymptotics and high-resolution finite activation energy numerical simulations are employed. Emphasis is on comparing and contrasting the solutions with those of the ignition process between a piston and a shock, considered previously. The large activation energy asymptotic solutions are found to be qualitatively different from the piston driven shock case, in that thermal runaway first occurs ahead of the contact surface, and both forward and backward moving reaction waves emerge. These waves take the form of quasi-steady weak detonations that may later transition into strong detonation waves. For the finite activation energies considered in the numerical simulations, the results are qualitatively different to the asymptotic predictions in that no backward weak detonation wave forms, and there is only a weak dependence of the evolutionary events on the acoustic impedance of the contact surface. The above conclusions are relevant to gas phase equation of state models. However, when a large polytropic index more representative of condensed phase explosives is used, the large activation energy asymptotic and finite activation energy numerical results are found to be in quantitative agreement

Genetic and demographic vulnerability of adder populations: Results of a genetic study in mainland Britain

Genetic factors are often overlooked in conservation planning, despite their importance in small isolated populations. We used mitochondrial and microsatellite markers to investigate population genetics of the adder (Vipera berus) in southern Britain, where numbers are declining. We found no evidence for loss of heterozygosity in any of the populations studied. Genetic diversity was comparable across sites, in line with published levels for mainland Europe. However, further analysis revealed a striking level of relatedness. Genetic networks constructed from inferred first degree relationships suggested a high proportion of individuals to be related at a level equivalent to that of half-siblings, with rare inferred full-sib dyads. These patterns of relatedness can be attributed to the high philopatry and low vagility of adders, which creates high local relatedness, in combination with the polyandrous breeding system in the adder, which may offset the risk of inbreeding in closed populations. We suggest that reliance on standard genetic indicators of inbreeding and diversity may underestimate demographic and genetic factors that make adder populations vulnerable to extirpation. We stress the importance of an integrated genetic and demographic approach in the conservation of adders, and other taxa of similar ecology

Fate of the predictions in Galle-Unawatuna mangroves, Sri Lanka: A validation after 10 years using satellite (IKONOS) and ground-truth data

Validation of earlier predictions is a challenging but significant contribution to ecological research. The present study tests the predications made 10 years ago by Dahdouh-Guebas et al. (2000) on the evolution of mangrove forest in Galle-Unawatuna, Sri Lanka. The ground inventory carried out in five Sectors covering the entire forest (Point Centred Quarter Method - PCQM) (Cintron and Schaeffer Novelli, 1984) revealed that the adult species composition is dominated by Rhizophora apiculata, Excoecaria agallocha, Bruguiera gymnorrhiza and B. sexangula, with their total density of 216-267 stems 0.1ha-1 and basal area 1.19-1.44m2 0.1ha-1. However, both young and juvenile vegetation in the most Sectors was dominated solely by B. gymnorrhiza (128-869 stems and 356-1482 propagules 0.1ha-1). According to Dahdouh-Guebas et al. (2000), the transition of an E. agallocha forest into a B. gymnorrhiza dominated one or at least their co-dominance in the Sectors 1 and 2 is possible, whereas Sector 3 being dominated by adult and juvenile R. apiculata will persist. Overall, the possible transition to a Bruguiera dominated forest in Galle-Unawatuna area was forecasted. The recent decadal changes between 1994 and 2004 through the integration of IKONOS satellite imagery of 2004 with ground-truth information confirmed many of the predictions and showed dynamic shifts in young/adult vegetation by B. gymnorrhiza. Both E. agallocha and R. apiculata continue to be dominant in Sectors 2 and 3, although the adult turnover by B. gymnorrhiza has not yet occurred, probably due to the small time interval between the two investigations. Confirming in part with the earlier prediction on R. apiculata in Sector 3, present study also revealed the abundance of B. gymnorrhiza as young and juvenile vegetation. Viewing the present dynamic shifts and sheer dominance as young vegetation by B. gymnorrhiza with a mean height of 5.8m in most Sectors, it is still possible to anticipate the mangroves being dominated by this species, and actually now validates the predictions made 10 years ago. Because of apparent changes in the mangrove vegetation structure, it could be concluded that the ‘moving mosaic’ pattern of mangrove species distribution reported earlier for Galle-Unawatuna still persists

Fussing About Fission: Defining Variety Among Mainstream and Exotic Apicomplexan Cell Division Modes

Cellular reproduction defines life, yet our textbook-level understanding of cell division is limited to a small number of model organisms centered around humans. The horizon on cell division variants is expanded here by advancing insights on the fascinating cell division modes found in the Apicomplexa, a key group of protozoan parasites. The Apicomplexa display remarkable variation in offspring number, whether karyokinesis follows each S/M-phase or not, and whether daughter cells bud in the cytoplasm or bud from the cortex. We find that the terminology used to describe the various manifestations of asexual apicomplexan cell division emphasizes either the number of offspring or site of budding, which are not directly comparable features and has led to confusion in the literature. Division modes have been primarily studied in two human pathogenic Apicomplexa, malaria-causing Plasmodium spp. and Toxoplasma gondii, a major cause of opportunistic infections. Plasmodium spp. divide asexually by schizogony, producing multiple daughters per division round through a cortical budding process, though at several life-cycle nuclear amplifications stages, are not followed by karyokinesis. T. gondii divides by endodyogeny producing two internally budding daughters per division round. Here we add to this diversity in replication mechanisms by considering the cattle parasite Babesia bigemina and the pig parasite Cystoisospora suis. B. bigemina produces two daughters per division round by a “binary fission” mechanism whereas C. suis produces daughters through both endodyogeny and multiple internal budding known as endopolygeny. In addition, we provide new data from the causative agent of equine protozoal myeloencephalitis (EPM), Sarcocystis neurona, which also undergoes endopolygeny but differs from C. suis by maintaining a single multiploid nucleus. Overall, we operationally define two principally different division modes: internal budding found in cyst-forming Coccidia (comprising endodyogeny and two forms of endopolygeny) and external budding found in the other parasites studied (comprising the two forms of schizogony, binary fission and multiple fission). Progressive insights into the principles defining the molecular and cellular requirements for internal vs. external budding, as well as variations encountered in sexual stages are discussed. The evolutionary pressures and mechanisms underlying apicomplexan cell division diversification carries relevance across Eukaryota

Yield conditions for deformation of amorphous polymer glasses

Shear yielding of glassy polymers is usually described in terms of the pressure-dependent Tresca or von Mises yield criteria. We test these criteria against molecular dynamics simulations of deformation in amorphous polymer glasses under triaxial loading conditions that are difficult to realize in experiments. Difficulties and ambiguities in extending several standard definitions of the yield point to triaxial loads are described. Two definitions, the maximum and offset octahedral stresses, are then used to evaluate the yield stress for a wide range of model parameters. In all cases, the onset of shear is consistent with the pressure-modified von Mises criterion, and the pressure coefficient is nearly independent of many parameters. Under triaxial tensile loading, the mode of failure changes to cavitation.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, revte