Human resources needs for universal access to antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a time and motion study

<p>Background - Although access to life-saving treatment for patients infected with HIV in South Africa has improved substantially since 2004, treating all eligible patients (universal access) remains elusive. As the prices of antiretroviral drugs have dropped over the past years, availability of human resources may now be the most important barrier to achieving universal access to HIV treatment in Africa. We quantify the number of HIV health workers (HHWs) required to be added to the current HIV workforce to achieve universal access to HIV treatment in South Africa, under different eligibility criteria.</p> <p>Methods - We performed a time and motion study in three HIV clinics in a rural, primary care-based HIV treatment program in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, to estimate the average time per patient visit for doctors, nurses, and counselors. We estimated the additional number of HHWs needed to achieve universal access to HIV treatment within one year.</p> <p>Results - For universal access to HIV treatment for all patients with a CD4 cell count of ≤350 cells/μl, an additional 2,200 nurses, 3,800 counselors, and 300 doctors would be required, at additional annual salary cost of 929 million South African rand (ZAR), equivalent to US$141 million. For universal treatment (‘treatment as prevention’), an additional 6,000 nurses, 11,000 counselors, and 800 doctors would be required, at an additional annual salary cost of ZAR 2.6 billion (US$ 400 million).</p> <p>Conclusions - Universal access to HIV treatment for patients with a CD4 cell count of ≤350 cells/μl in South Africa may be affordable, but the number of HHWs available for HIV treatment will need to be substantially increased. Treatment as prevention strategies will require considerable additional financial and human resources commitments.</p&gt

Interviewer-driven Variability in Social Network Reporting: Results from Health and Aging in Africa: a Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH community (HAALSI) in South Africa

Social network analysis depends on how social ties to others are elicited during interviews, a process easily affected by respondent and interviewer behaviors. We investigate how the number of self-reported important social contacts varied within a single data collection round. Our data come from Health and Aging in Africa: a Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH community (HAALSI), a comprehensive population-based survey of individuals aged 40 years and older conducted over 13 months at the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance site in rural South Africa. As part of HAALSI, interviewers elicited detailed egocentric network data. The average number of contacts reported by the 5,059 respondents both varied significantly across interviewers and fell over time as the data collection progressed, even after adjusting for respondent, interviewer, and respondent–interviewer dyad characteristics. Contact numbers rose substantially after a targeted interviewer intervention. We conclude that checking (and adjusting) for interviewer effects, even within one data collection round, is critical to valid and reliable social network analysis. Measurements of social networks depend on the number and type of social ties to others (Berkman et al. 2000; Smith and Christakis 2008). These ties are typically elicited through interviews, a process easily affected by respondent or interviewer characteristics and behaviors. Understanding social network structure and composition requires substantial amounts of information from respondents (“egos”) about the people (“alters”) they have relationships with (Marsden 1990). Notably, the survey burden associated with network data collection depends heavily on the number of alters elicited through “name generator” questions: Each alter named leads to the repetition of all follow-up questions characterizing the ego–alter relationship (“name interpreters”; Burt 1984). Interviewers have been identified as a key source of variation in survey responses, particularly for questions that are attitudinal, ambiguous, or have complex skip patterns (West and Blom 2016). Several studies have previously identified interviewer effects on network size (Brüderl et al. 2013; Josten and Trappmann 2016; Marsden 2003; Paik and Sanchagrin 2013; van Tilburg 1998). These interviewer effects may arise from differential understanding of survey questions, and therefore how questions are presented to respondents. Interviewers can also affect which alters are elicited due to their own characteristics (e.g., sex, race, age, or experience), or the nature of the interviewer–respondent dyad (e.g., gender, race, or age homophily), leading to different lines of enquiry, levels of probing, or expectations of social acceptability (Collins 1980; Hox 1994; Marsden 2003; Phung et al. 2015). Furthermore, if respondents or interviewers are aware that naming more alters substantially increases survey length, then either group may consciously or unconsciously seek to minimize the number of alters named (Eagle and Proeschold-Bell 2015; van der Zouwen and van Tilburg 2001). In cross-sectional surveys, the opportunities for respondents to learn are limited, but those for interviewers will increase as the survey period progresses. Interviewers may try to reduce survey burden, either for themselves or for respondents, by favoring language or probes that decrease the number of alters elicited. Indeed, past studies in Europe have found evidence of interviewers intentionally filtering out questions by entering fewer responses that would trigger more questions. Such filtering behavior has been seen in Europe for interviewers who are being compensated by the interview rather than by the hour (Josten and Trappmann 2016; Kosyakova et al. 2014), for interviewers with prior experience using the relevant screening tool (Matschinger et al. 2005), and where interviewers are under substantial pressure to complete more interviews (Schnell and Kreuter 2000). We aim to extend this literature by assessing how the number of alters elicited systematically changed over the course of a cross-sectional social network survey of older adults in rural South Africa. We show a substantial drop in alter numbers over time, and a swift reversal following retraining, providing substantial evidence for interviewer effects

Addressing social issues in a universal HIV test and treat intervention trial (ANRS 12249 TasP) in South Africa: methods for appraisal

Background: The Universal HIV Test and Treat (UTT) strategy represents a challenge for science, but is also a challenge for individuals and societies. Are repeated offers of provider-initiated HIV testing and immediate antiretroviral therapy (ART) socially-acceptable and can these become normalized over time? Can UTT be implemented without potentially adding to individual and community stigma, or threatening individual rights? What are the social, cultural and economic implications of UTT for households and communities? And can UTT be implemented within capacity constraints and other threats to the overall provision of HIV services? The answers to these research questions will be critical for routine implementation of UTT strategies. Methods/design: A social science research programme is nested within the ANRS 12249 Treatment-as-Prevention (TasP) cluster-randomised trial in rural South Africa. The programme aims to inform understanding of the (i) social, economic and environmental factors affecting uptake of services at each step of the continuum of HIV prevention, treatment and care and (ii) the causal impacts of the TasP intervention package on social and economic factors at the individual, household, community and health system level. We describe a multidisciplinary, multi-level, mixed-method research protocol that includes individual, household, community and clinic surveys, and combines quantitative and qualitative methods. Discussion: The UTT strategy is changing the overall approach to HIV prevention, treatment and care, and substantial social consequences may be anticipated, such as changes in social representations of HIV transmission, prevention, HIV testing and ART use, as well as changes in individual perceptions and behaviours in terms of uptake and frequency of HIV testing and ART initiation at high CD4. Triangulation of social science studies within the ANRS 12249 TasP trial will provide comprehensive insights into the acceptability and feasibility of the TasP intervention package at individual, community, patient and health system level, to complement the trial's clinical and epidemiological outcomes. It will also increase understanding of the causal impacts of UTT on social and economic outcomes, which will be critical for the long-term sustainability and routine UTT implementation. Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01509508; South African Trial Register: DOH-27-0512-3974

Zambian Peer Educators for HIV Self-Testing (ZEST) study: rationale and design of a cluster randomised trial of HIV self-testing among female sex workers in Zambia

BACKGROUND: HIV testing and knowledge of status are starting points for HIV treatment and prevention interventions. Among female sex workers (FSWs), HIV testing and status knowledge remain far from universal. HIV self-testing (HIVST) is an alternative to existing testing services for FSWs, but little evidence exists how it can be effectively and safely implemented. Here, we describe the rationale and design of a cluster randomised trial designed to inform implementation and scale-up of HIVST programmes for FSWs in Zambia. METHODS: The Zambian Peer Educators for HIV Self-Testing (ZEST) study is a 3-arm cluster randomised trial taking place in 3 towns in Zambia. Participants (N=900) are eligible if they are women who have exchanged sex for money or goods in the previous 1 month, are HIV negative or status unknown, have not tested for HIV in the previous 3 months, and are at least 18 years old. Participants are recruited by peer educators working in their communities. Participants are randomised to 1 of 3 arms: (1) direct distribution (in which they receive an HIVST from the peer educator directly); (2) fixed distribution (in which they receive a coupon with which to collect the HIVST from a drug store or health post) or (3) standard of care (referral to existing HIV testing services only, without any offer of HIVST). Participants are followed at 1 and 4 months following distribution of the first HIVST. The primary end point is HIV testing in the past month measured at the 1-month and 4-month visits. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the Institutional Review Boards at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston, USA and ERES Converge in Lusaka, Zambia. The findings of this trial will be presented at local, regional and international meetings and submitted to peer-reviewed journals for publication. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Pre-results; NCT02827240

Reaching for the 'first 95': a cross-country analysis of HIV self-testing in nine countries in sub-Saharan Africa

OBJECTIVES: HIV self-testing (HIVST) offers a promising approach to increase HIV diagnosis and advance progress towards the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets. We aimed to understand patterns of HIVST awareness and utilization in nine sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, with the goal of identifying populations to target in disseminating this technology. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study. METHODS: We pooled individual-level population-based data from nine Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in SSA conducted 2015-2019 (Burundi, Cameroon, Guinea, Malawi, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe). Primary outcomes were HIVST awareness and utilization. We used logistic regression with survey fixed effects to explore the relationship between sociodemographic characteristics and these outcomes. Models were adjusted for sex, age, rural/urban residence, education, wealth, and marital status. We accounted for complex survey design. RESULTS: The study sample included 177 572 people (66.0% women, mean age 29 ± 10 years), of whom 86.6% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 86.4-86.7] were unaware of HIVST, 11.7% (95% CI 11.6-11.9) were aware of but never used HIVST, and 1.7% (95% CI 1.6-1.8) had used HIVST. In adjusted models, women were less likely to be aware of HIVST [odds ratio (OR) 0.75, 95% CI 0.71-0.79], but more likely to have used HIVST (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.03-1.32) compared with men. Rural residents, those who were least educated, and poorest were less likely to have heard of or used HIVST. CONCLUSION: HIVST awareness and uptake were low. Rural, less educated, and lower income populations were least likely to have heard of or used HIVST. Efforts to scale-up HIVST in these settings should aim to reach these less advantaged groups

A Continuous Quality Improvement Intervention to Improve Antenatal HIV Care Testing in Rural South Africa: Evaluation of Implementation in a Real-World Setting

BACKGROUND: We evaluated continuous quality improvement (CQI) targeting antenatal HIV care quality in rural South Africa using a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised controlled trial (Management and Optimisation of Nutrition, Antenatal, Reproductive, Child health, MONARCH) and an embedded process evaluation. Here, we present results of the process evaluation examining determinants of CQI practice and 'normalisation.' METHODS: A team of CQI mentors supported public-sector health workers in seven primary care clinics to (1) identify root causes of poor HIV viral load (VL) monitoring among pregnant women living with HIV and repeat HIV testing among pregnant women not living with HIV, and (2) design and iteratively test their own solutions. We used a mixed methods evaluation with field notes from CQI mentors ('dose' and 'reach' of CQI, causes of poor HIV care testing rates, implemented change ideas); patient medical records (HIV care testing by clinic and time step); and semi-structured interviews with available health workers. We analysed field notes andsemi-structured interviews for determinants of CQI implementation and 'normalisation' using Normalisation Process Theory (NPT) and Tailored Implementation of Chronic Diseases (TICD) frameworks. RESULTS: All interviewed health workers found the CQI mentors and methodology helpful for quality improvement. Total administered 'dose' was higher than planned but 'reach' was limited by resource constraints, particularly staffing shortages. Simple workable improvements to identified root causes were implemented, such as a patient tracking notebook and results filing system. VL monitoring improved over time, but not repeat HIV testing. Besides resource constraints, gaps in knowledge of guidelines, lack of leadership, poor clinical documentation, and data quality gaps reduced CQI implementation fidelity and normalisation. CONCLUSION: While CQI holds promise, we identified several health system challenges. Priorities for policy makers include improving staffing and strategies to improve clinical documentation. Additional support with implementing clinical guidelines and improving routine data quality are needed. Normalising CQI may be challenging without concurrent health system improvements

CD4+ T-cell count at antiretroviral therapy initiation in the "treat all" era in rural South Africa: an interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND: South Africa implemented universal test and treat (UTT) in September 2016 in an effort to encourage earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: We therefore conducted an interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to assess the impact of UTT on mean CD4 count at ART initiation among adults ≥16 years old attending 17 public sector primary care services in rural South Africa between July 2014 and March 2019. RESULTS: Among 20,599 individuals (69% women), CD4 counts were available for 74%. Mean CD4 at ART initiation increased from 317.1 cells/μL (95% confidence interval, CI, 308.6 to 325.6)-one to eight months prior to UTT-to 421.0 cells/μL (95% CI 413.0 to 429.0) one to twelve months after UTT, including an immediate increase of 124.2 cells/μL (95% CI 102.2 to 146.1). However, mean CD4 count subsequently fell to 389.5 cells/μL (95% CI 381.8 to 397.1) 13 to 30 months after UTT, but remained above pre-UTT levels. Men initiated ART at lower CD4 counts than women (-118.2 cells/μL, 95% CI -125.5 to -111.0) throughout the study. CONCLUSIONS: Although UTT led to an immediate increase in CD4 count at ART initiation in this rural community, the long-term effects were modest. More efforts are needed to increase initiation of ART early in HIV infection, particularly among men

Long term effect of primary health care training on HIV testing: A quasi-experimental evaluation of the Sexual Health in Practice (SHIP) intervention

BACKGROUND: To examine the effect of Sexual Health in Practice (SHIP) training for general practitioners (GPs) on HIV testing rates in Haringey, a deprived area of London, UK, with a population of over 250,000 and HIV prevalence of 0.7% (in 2014). SHIP is an educational intervention delivering peer-developed and peer-led face-to-face training to improve quality of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) care. METHODS: We carried out a quasi-experimental study of intervention effects across 52 GP practices (2008–2016). We used time variation in SHIP intervention exposure for effect estimation, controlling for practice and calendar month fixed effects in panel analysis. From 2008–2010, baseline data were collected, and in the subsequent six-year period, 78 GPs in Haringey (approximately 40% of all GPs) were SHIP trained. 46 Haringey practices (of 52) had at least one trained doctor. Outcome measures were monthly HIV tests and results by practice (obtained from the hospital laboratories). RESULTS: SHIP significantly increased HIV testing; for every GP trained, practice HIV testing rates increased by 16% (testing rate ratio (TRR) 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05–1.28, p value 0.004). This significant effect was demonstrated using an 8-year observation period, and was sustained over the post-intervention period. An average of 1.42% of HIV tests were positive. CONCLUSION: SHIP training produces a significant and sustained increase in HIV testing for each GP trained. Compared with general population screening, HIV tests used in routine clinical care have a high probability of detecting a positive person. Unlike an RCT, this evaluation is a ‘real life’ measure of the effect that commissioners of SHIP could expect in comparable areas of the UK. The effectiveness of the SHIP training may be related to the programme components not included in interventions that did not demonstrate an effect, such as peer-led teaching, and use of approaches to communication and rapid risk assessment tailored to the setting

Climate and the spread of COVID-19

Visual inspection of world maps shows that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is less prevalent in countries closer to the equator, where heat and humidity tend to be higher. Scientists disagree how to interpret this observation because the relationship between COVID-19 and climatic conditions may be confounded by many factors. We regress the logarithm of confirmed COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants in a country against the country's distance from the equator, controlling for key confounding factors: air travel, vehicle concentration, urbanization, COVID-19 testing intensity, cell phone usage, income, old-age dependency ratio, and health expenditure. A one-degree increase in absolute latitude is associated with a 4.3% increase in cases per million inhabitants as of January 9, 2021 (p value < 0.001). Our results imply that a country, which is located 1000 km closer to the equator, could expect 33% fewer cases per million inhabitants. Since the change in Earth's angle towards the sun between equinox and solstice is about 23.5°, one could expect a difference in cases per million inhabitants of 64% between two hypothetical countries whose climates differ to a similar extent as two adjacent seasons. According to our results, countries are expected to see a decline in new COVID-19 cases during summer and a resurgence during winter. However, our results do not imply that the disease will vanish during summer or will not affect countries close to the equator. Rather, the higher temperatures and more intense UV radiation in summer are likely to support public health measures to contain SARS-CoV-2

The Effect of Antiretroviral Treatment on Health Care Utilization in Rural South Africa: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background: The effect of the rapid scale-up of vertical antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs for HIV in sub-Saharan Africa on the overall health system is under intense debate. Some have argued that these programs have reduced access for people suffering from diseases unrelated to HIV because ART programs have drained human and physical resources from other parts of the health system; others have claimed that the investments through ART programs have strengthened the general health system and the population health impacts of ART have freed up health care capacity for the treatment of diseases that are not related to HIV. To establish the population-level impact of ART programs on health care utilization in the public-sector health system, we compared trends in health care utilization among HIV-infected people receiving and not receiving ART with HIV-uninfected people during a period of rapid ART scale-up. Methods and Findings: We used data from the Wellcome Trust Africa Centre for Population Health, which annually elicited information on health care utilization from all surveillance participants over the period 2009–2012 (N = 32,319). We determined trends in hospitalization, and public-sector and private-sector primary health care (PHC) clinic visits for HIV-infected and -uninfected people over a time period of rapid ART scale-up (2009–2012) in this community. We regressed health care utilization on HIV status and ART status in different calendar years, controlling for sex, age, and area of residence. The proportion of people who reported to have visited a public-sector primary health care (PHC) clinic in the last 6 months increased significantly over the period 2009–2012, for both HIV-infected people (from 59% to 67%; p<0.001), and HIV-uninfected people (from 41% to 47%; p<0.001). In contrast, the proportion of HIV-infected people visiting a private-sector PHC clinic declined from 22% to 12% (p<0.001) and hospitalization rates declined from 128 to 82 per 1000 PY (p<0.001). For HIV-uninfected people, the proportion visiting a private-sector PHC clinic declined from 16% to 9%, and hospitalization rates declined from 78 to 44 per 1000 PY (p<0.001). After controlling for potential confounding factors, all trends remained of similar magnitude and significance. Conclusions: Our results indicate that the ART scale-up in this high HIV prevalence community has shifted health care utilization from hospitals and private-sector primary care to public-sector primary care. Remarkably, this shift is observed for both HIV-infected and -uninfected populations, supporting and extending hypotheses of ‘therapeutic citizenship’ whereby HIV-infected patients receiving ART facilitate primary care access for family and community members. One explanation of our findings is that ART has improved the capacity or quality of primary care in this community and, as a consequence, increasingly met overall health care needs at the primary care level rather than at the secondary level. Future research needs to confirm this causal interpretation of our findings using qualitative work to understand causal mechanisms or quasi-experimental quantitative studies to increase the strength of causal inference