CO2 emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies

This paper explores a multi-model scenario ensemble to assess the impacts of idealized and non-idealized climate change stabilization policies on fossil fuel markets. Under idealized conditions climate policies significantly reduce coal use in the short- and long-term. Reductions in oil and gas use are much smaller, particularly until 2030, but revenues decrease much more because oil and gas prices are higher than coal prices. A first deviation from optimal transition pathways is delayed action that relaxes global emission targets until 2030 in accordance with the Copenhagen pledges. Fossil fuel markets revert back to the no-policy case: though coal use increases strongest, revenue gains are higher for oil and gas. To balance the carbon budget over the 21st century, the long-term reallocation of fossil fuels is significantly larger -- twice and more -- than the short-term distortion. This amplifying effect results from coal lock-in and inter-fuel substitution effects to balance the full-century carbon budget. The second deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes the global participation assumption. The result here is less clear-cut across models, as we find carbon leakage effects ranging from positive to negative because trade and substitution patterns of coal, oil, and gas differ across models. In summary, distortions of fossil fuel markets resulting from relaxed short-term global emission targets are more important and less uncertain than the issue of carbon leakage from early mover action

A Multi-model Analysis of Post-2020 Mitigation Efforts of Five Major Economies

This paper looks into the regional mitigation strategies of five major economies (China, EU, India, Japan and USA) in the context of the 2 degrees C target, using a multi-model comparison. In order to stay in line with the 2 degrees C target, a tripling or quadrupling of mitigation ambitions is required in all regions by 2050, employing vigorous decarbonization of the energy supply system and achieving negative emissions during the second half of the century. In all regions looked at, decarbonization of energy supply (and in particular power generation) is more important than reducing energy demand. Some differences in abatement strategies across the regions are projected: In India and the USA the emphasis is on prolonging fossil fuel use by coupling conventional technologies with carbon storage, whereas the other main strategy depicts a shift to carbon-neutral technologies with mostly renewables (China, EU) or nuclear power (Japan). Regions with access to large amounts of biomass, such as the USA, China and the EU, can make a trade-off between energy related emissions and land related emissions, as the use of bioenergy can lead to a net increase in land use emissions. After supply-side changes, the most important abatement strategy focuses on enduse efficiency improvements, leading to considerable emission reductions in both the industry and transport sectors across all regions. Abatement strategies for non-CO2 emissions and land use emissions are found to have a smaller potential. Inherent model, as well as collective, biases have been observed affecting the regional response strategy or the available reduction potential in specific (end-use) sectors

Effects of PI and PIII Snake Venom Haemorrhagic Metalloproteinases on the Microvasculature: A Confocal Microscopy Study on the Mouse Cremaster Muscle

The precise mechanisms by which Snake Venom Metalloproteinases (SVMPs) disrupt the microvasculature and cause haemorrhage have not been completely elucidated, and novel in vivo models are needed. In the present study, we compared the effects induced by BaP1, a PI SVMP isolated from Bothrops asper venom, and CsH1, a PIII SVMP from Crotalus simus venom, on cremaster muscle microvasculature by topical application of the toxins on isolated tissue (i.e., ex vivo model), and by intra-scrotal administration of the toxins (i.e., in vivo model). The whole tissue was fixed and immunostained to visualize the three components of blood vessels by confocal microscopy. In the ex vivo model, BaP1 was able to degrade type IV collagen and laminin from the BM of microvessels. Moreover, both SVMPs degraded type IV collagen from the BM in capillaries to a higher extent than in PCV and arterioles. CsH1 had a stronger effect on type IV collagen than BaP1. In the in vivo model, the effect of BaP1 on type IV collagen was widespread to the BM of arterioles and PCV. On the other hand, BaP1 was able to disrupt the endothelial barrier in PCV and to increase vascular permeability. Moreover, this toxin increased the size of gaps between pericytes in PCV and created new gaps between smooth muscle cells in arterioles in ex vivo conditions. These effects were not observed in the case of CsH1. In conclusion, our findings demonstrate that both SVMPs degrade type IV collagen from the BM in capillaries in vivo. Moreover, while the action of CsH1 is more directed to the BM of microvessels, the effects of BaP1 are widespread to other microvascular components. This study provides new insights in the mechanism of haemorrhage and other pathological effects induced by these toxins

Diagnosis and management of migraine in ten steps

Migraine is a disabling primary headache disorder that directly affects more than one billion people worldwide. Despite its widespread prevalence, migraine remains under-diagnosed and under-treated. To support clinical decision-making, we convened a European panel of experts to develop a ten-step approach to the diagnosis and management of migraine. Each step was established by expert consensus and supported by a review of current literature, and the Consensus Statement is endorsed by the European Headache Federation and the European Academy of Neurology. In this Consensus Statement, we introduce typical clinical features, diagnostic criteria and differential diagnoses of migraine. We then emphasize the value of patient centricity and patient education to ensure treatment adherence and satisfaction with care provision. Further, we outline best practices for acute and preventive treatment of migraine in various patient populations, including adults, children and adolescents, pregnant and breastfeeding women, and older people. In addition, we provide recommendations for evaluating treatment response and managing treatment failure. Lastly, we discuss the management of complications and comorbidities as well as the importance of planning long-term follow-up

Effect of CGRP and sumatriptan on the BOLD response in visual cortex

To test the hypothesis that calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) modulates brain activity, we investigated the effect of intravenous CGRP on brain activity in response to a visual stimulus. In addition, we examined if possible alteration in brain activity was reversed by the anti-migraine drug sumatriptan. Eighteen healthy volunteers were randomly allocated to receive CGRP infusion (1.5 μg/min for 20 min) or placebo. In vivo activity in the visual cortex was recorded before, during and after infusion and after 6 mg subcutaneous sumatriptan by functional magnetic resonance imaging (3 T). 77% of the participants reported headache after CGRP. We found no changes in brain activity after CGRP (P = 0.12) or after placebo (P = 0.41). Sumatriptan did not affect brain activity after CGRP (P = 0.71) or after placebo (P = 0.98). Systemic CGRP or sumatriptan has no direct effects on the BOLD activity in visual cortex. This suggests that in healthy volunteers both CGRP and sumatriptan may exert their actions outside of the blood–brain barrier

Tension Type Headache in Adolescence and Childhood: Where Are We Now?

Tension type headache (TTH) is a primary headache disorder considered common in children and adolescents. It remains debatable whether TTH and migraine are separate biological entities. This review summarizes the most recent literature of TTH with regards to children and adolescents. Further studies of TTH are needed to develop a biologically based classification system that may be facilitated through understanding changes in the developing brain during childhood and adolescence

Headache attributed to SARS-CoV-2 infection, vaccination and the impact on primary headache disorders of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive review.

ObjectiveThe objective is to summarize the knowledge on the epidemiology, pathophysiology and management of secondary headache attributed to SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination; as well as to delineate their impact on primary headache disorders.MethodsThis is a narrative review of the literature regarding primary and secondary headache disorders in the setting of COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted a literature search in 2022 on PubMed, with the keywords “COVID 19” or “vaccine” and “headache” to assess the appropriateness of all published articles for their inclusion in the review.ResultsHeadache is a common and sometimes difficult-to-treat symptom of both the acute and post-acute phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Different pathophysiological mechanisms may be involved, with the trigeminovascular system as a plausible target. Specific evidence-based effective therapeutic options are lacking at present. Headache attributed to SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations is also common, its pathophysiology being unclear. People with primary headache disorders experience headache in the acute phase of COVID-19 and after vaccination more commonly than the general population. Pandemic measures, forcing lifestyle changes, seemed to have had a positive impact on migraine, and changes in headache care (telemedicine) have been effectively introduced.ConclusionsThe ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is a global challenge, having an impact on the development of secondary headaches, both in people with or without primary headaches. This has created opportunities to better understand and treat headache and to potentiate strategies to manage patients and ensure care.Paroxysmal Cerebral Disorder

Estimating the clinical effectiveness and value-based price range of erenumab for the prevention of migraine in patients with prior treatment failures: a US societal perspective

BACKGROUND: Frequent migraine with four or more headache days per month is a common, disabling neurovascular disease. From a US societal perspective, this analysis models the clinical efficacy and estimates the value-based price (VBP) for erenumab, a fully human monoclonal antibody that inhibits the calcitonin gene-related peptide receptor. METHODS: A Markov health state transition model was developed to estimate the incremental costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and value-based price range for erenumab in migraine prevention. The model comprises "on preventive treatment", "off preventive treatment", and "death" health states across a 10-year time horizon. The evaluation compared erenumab to no preventive treatment in episodic and chronic migraine patients that have failed at least one preventive therapy. Therapeutic benefits are based on estimated changes in monthly migraine days (MMD) from erenumab pivotal clinical trials and a network meta-analysis of migraine studies. Utilities were estimated using previously published mapping algorithms. A VBP analysis was performed to identify maximum erenumab annual prices at willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds of $100,000-$200,000 per QALY. Estimates of VBP under different scenarios such as choice of different comparators, assumptions around inclusion of placebo effect, and exclusion of work productivity losses were also generated. RESULTS: Erenumab resulted in incremental QALYs of 0.185 vs supportive care (SC) and estimated cost offsets due to reduced MMD of $8,482 over 10 years, with an average duration of treatment of 2.01 years. The estimated VBP at WTP thresholds of$100,000-$200,000 for erenumab compared to SC ranged from$14,238-$23,998. VBP estimates including the placebo effect and excluding work productivity ranged from$7,445-$13,809; increasing to$12,151-$18,589 with onabotulinumtoxinA as a comparator in chronic migraine. CONCLUSION: Erenumab is predicted to reduce migraine-related direct and indirect costs, and increase QALYs compared to SC

The pharmacological effect of BGC20-1531, a novel prostanoid EP4 receptor antagonist, in the Prostaglandin E2 human model of headache

Using a human Prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) model of headache, we examined whether a novel potent and selective EP4 receptor antagonist, BGC20-1531, may prevent headache and dilatation of the middle cerebral (MCA) and superficial temporal artery (STA). In a three-way cross-over trial, eight healthy volunteers were randomly allocated to receive 200 and 400 mg BGC20-1531 and placebo, followed by a 25-min infusion of PGE2. We recorded headache intensity on a verbal rating scale, MCA blood flow velocity and STA diameter. There was no difference in headache response or prevention of the dilation of the MCA or the STA (P > 0.05) with either dose of BGC20-1531 relative to placebo, although putative therapeutic exposures were not reached in all volunteers. In conclusion, these data suggest that the other EP receptors may be involved in PGE2 induced headache and dilatation in normal subjects