Demography and Inflation: An International Study

Changes in the relative share of different age groups in the population may present inflationary, disinflationary or even deflationary tendencies. We find evidence that increases in the share of the very old (age 80 and older) may be associated with deflation. The analysis is based on an international dataset over a long time period. Classifying age groups into young, working, younger old and older old, we find that the shares of the young and the younger old groups are inflationary, while those of the working group disinflationary, and those of the very old group seemingly deflationary

Fennoscandian permafrost peatland dynamics and climate feedbacks in the future

Non peer reviewe

The Fiscal Effects of Aid in Ethiopia Evidence from CVAR Applications

This article explores the fiscal effects of aid in Ethiopia using the Cointegrated Vector AutoRegressive (CVAR) methodology to model complex long-run and short-run dynamics. We use national data for 1961–2010, including a measure of aid capturing flows through the budget as measured by the recipient. The data suggests three main conclusions on the long-run equilibrium. First, government long-term spending plans are based on domestic sources, treating aid as an additional source of revenue. Second, both grants and loans are positively related to tax revenue. Third, aid is positively associated with spending, with a particularly strong relation between capital expenditure and grants. Overall, our results show that aid in Ethiopia had beneficial fiscal effects

The Role of National Debts in the Determination of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate

An intertemporal optimization model is developed to examine the determinants of the long-run nominal yen-dollar exchange rate in the presence of national debts. The model is tested empirically using data from Japan and the USA. The proposed theoretical specification is well supported by the data and shows that relative national debts as well as monetary and financial factors may play a significant role in the determination of the long-run nominal exchange rate between the yen and the dollar

Discounting Works in the Hotel Industry: A Structural Approach to Understanding Why

This case study provides an empirical assessment of the relationship between discounting hotel room rates and hotel financial performance. The dynamics of the lodging industry are accounted for through the adoption of an error correction model. Recent research suggests that the use of discounting room rates may not be an effective pricing strategy as it results in increased occupancy rates at decreased average daily rates, thereby reducing a common financial performance indicator – revenue per available room (revPAR). The recommendation made to hotel managers, then, is to avoid discounting and instead adopt an average rate. This study generates opposing findings and reveals that discounting may be a practical short-term pricing solution that may compensate for market disequilibria. The results suggest that using statistical residuals rather than room rate averages may more accurately forecast appropriate hotel room rates and balance supply and demand. Thus, the recommendation of adopting average room rates may provide incorrect implications for managers in the short run

Aromaticity in a Surface Deposited Cluster: Pd4_4 on TiO2_2 (110)

We report the presence of \sigma-aromaticity in a surface deposited cluster, Pd$_4$ on TiO$_2$ (110). In the gas phase, Pd$_4$ adopts a tetrahedral structure. However, surface binding promotes a flat, \sigma-aromatic cluster. This is the first time aromaticity is found in surface deposited clusters. Systems of this type emerge as a promising class of catalyst, and so realization of aromaticity in them may help to rationalize their reactivity and catalytic properties, as a function of cluster size and composition.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Optimizing time-series forecasts for inflation and interest rates using simulation and model averaging

Motivated by economic-theory concepts – the Fisher hypothesis and the theory of the term structure – we consider a small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short-term interest rates. The set includes vector autoregressions (VAR) in levels and in differences, a cointegrated VAR and a non-linear VAR with threshold cointegration based on data from Germany, Japan, UK and the US. Following a traditional comparative evaluation of predictive accuracy, we subject all structures to a mutual validation using parametric bootstrapping. Ultimately, we utilize the recently developed technique of Mallows model averaging to explore the potential of improving upon the predictions through combinations. While the simulations confirm the traded wisdom that VARs in differences optimize one-step prediction and that error correction helps at larger horizons, the model-averaging experiments point at problems in allotting an adequate penalty for the complexity of candidate models. (Author's abstract