The 1987 Mexican Disinflation Program: An Exchange-rate-based Stabilization?

We examine whether Mexico’s disinflation experience during 1987-94 fits the widely accepted set of stylized facts of exchange-ratebased stabilization (ERBS) on inflation, the boom-recession business cycle, and the external sector. A cursory look at Mexican data shows that the experience fits quite closely the stylized facts of ERBS. However, the paper shows that there were some important differences and peculiarities of the Mexican case that deserve further study, especially regarding the role of the nominal anchor and the nature of the business cycle.stabilization, disinflation, business cycle, nominal anchor

Devaluation Controversies in the Developing Countries: Lessons From the Bretton Woods Era

This paper uses historical data from the Bretton Woods era to analyze the effectiveness of devaluation-based adjustment programs in the developing countries. Forty eight major devaluations undertaken between 1954 and 1971 are investigated in detail in an effort to understand the circumstances leading to these adjustment programs, as well as their degree of effectiveness. An important aspect of the analysis is the distinction between devaluations undertaken within the context of IMF programs, and devaluations implemented independently. We find out that, in general, countries with lower income per capita and deeper economic problems tended to seek IMF support with greater frequency. Also, our analysis indicates that countries with left-wing leaning governments were less likely to embark on IMF programs. With respect to the effectiveness of these devaluation programs, our findings support the notion that devaluations accompanied by restrictive and consistent macroeconomic policies are an efficient and powerful adjustment tool. Our historical investigation also shows that, in general, countries that embarked on IMF stand-by programs tended to perform better than countries that adjusted on their own.

Effectiveness of an intervention for improving drug prescription in primary care patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy:Study protocol of a cluster randomized clinical trial (Multi-PAP project)

This study was funded by the Fondo de Investigaciones Sanitarias ISCIII (Grant Numbers PI15/00276, PI15/00572, PI15/00996), REDISSEC (Project Numbers RD12/0001/0012, RD16/0001/0005), and the European Regional Development Fund ("A way to build Europe").Background: Multimorbidity is associated with negative effects both on people's health and on healthcare systems. A key problem linked to multimorbidity is polypharmacy, which in turn is associated with increased risk of partly preventable adverse effects, including mortality. The Ariadne principles describe a model of care based on a thorough assessment of diseases, treatments (and potential interactions), clinical status, context and preferences of patients with multimorbidity, with the aim of prioritizing and sharing realistic treatment goals that guide an individualized management. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of a complex intervention that implements the Ariadne principles in a population of young-old patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy. The intervention seeks to improve the appropriateness of prescribing in primary care (PC), as measured by the medication appropriateness index (MAI) score at 6 and 12months, as compared with usual care. Methods/Design: Design:pragmatic cluster randomized clinical trial. Unit of randomization: family physician (FP). Unit of analysis: patient. Scope: PC health centres in three autonomous communities: Aragon, Madrid, and Andalusia (Spain). Population: patients aged 65-74years with multimorbidity (≥3 chronic diseases) and polypharmacy (≥5 drugs prescribed in ≥3months). Sample size: n=400 (200 per study arm). Intervention: complex intervention based on the implementation of the Ariadne principles with two components: (1) FP training and (2) FP-patient interview. Outcomes: MAI score, health services use, quality of life (Euroqol 5D-5L), pharmacotherapy and adherence to treatment (Morisky-Green, Haynes-Sackett), and clinical and socio-demographic variables. Statistical analysis: primary outcome is the difference in MAI score between T0 and T1 and corresponding 95% confidence interval. Adjustment for confounding factors will be performed by multilevel analysis. All analyses will be carried out in accordance with the intention-to-treat principle. Discussion: It is essential to provide evidence concerning interventions on PC patients with polypharmacy and multimorbidity, conducted in the context of routine clinical practice, and involving young-old patients with significant potential for preventing negative health outcomes. Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT02866799Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Stabilization Programs and External Enforcement: Experience from the 1920s

Credibility and financing problems are important reasons why countries may seek to involve external institutions in the design and implementation of stabilization programs. In particular, governments may rely on external institutions to "enforce" programs that would otherwise lack credibility. This paper analyzes six European currency stabilizations sponsored by the League of Nations in the 1920s. It emphasizes the means by which the League provided a "commitment technology" and enforced compliance, thereby helping to ensure successful stabilizations. Empirical evidence indicates that countries with greater credibility problems relied more heavily on external enforcement to stabilize their currencies.

Stylized Facts before IMF-Supported Macroeconomic Adjustment

This paper analyzes the initial economic conditions before IMF financial arrangements are adopted. Evidence from 104 IMF arrangements in 74 developing countries during 1973-91 indicates that there are important differences between the characteristics of countries about to undergo a program and those of a control group. The program group exhibits weaker balance of payments, output growth, external conditions, and fiscal and credit policies than the control group; it is also characterized by a higher degree of external indebtedness and nominal exchange rate depreciation. In the case of the rate of inflation, investment, real effective depreciation, and the growth rate of money, the two groups appear to be statistically similar.

Four Decades of Fund Arrangements

This paper analyzes the initial conditions before Fund financial arrangements are adopted. Evidence from 324 Fund arrangements in 78 developing countries during 1973-91 indicates that there are important differences in the characteristics between program episodes and a control group. Program episodes exhibit weaker balance of payments, output growth, investment, external conditions and fiscal policy than the control group; they are also characterized by a higher degree of external indebtedness and inflation, and their exchange rates are more depreciated in both nominal and real terms. Only in the case of the growth rates of money and credit do the two groups appear to be statistically similar.

Stabilization Programs and External Enforcement

Credibility and financing problems are important reasons why countries may seek to involve external institutions in the design and implementation of stabilization programs. In particular, governments may rely on external institutions to ‘enforce’ programs that would otherwise lack credibility. This paper analyzes six European currency stabilizations sponsored by the League of Nations in the 1920s. It emphasizes the means by which the League provided a ‘commitment technology’ and enforced compliance, thereby helping to ensure successful stabilizations. Empirical evidence indicates that countries with greater credibility problems relied more heavily on external enforcement to stabilize their currencies.Stabilization programs;Stabilization measures;inflation, monetary policy, central bank, price level, money supply, monetary expansion, monetary fund, monetary authority, rational expectations, inflation rate, money growth, rates of inflation, rate of inflation, monetary regime, monetary economics, real money, monetary discipline, money balances, macroeconomic performance, monetary base, quantity theory of money, inflationary pressures, low inflation, monetary stabilization, monetary dynamics, inflationary expectations, purchasing power of money, quantity theory, national bank, high-inflation episodes, high inflation, extreme inflation, theory of money, price inflation, monetary restraint, nominal variables, relatively high rates of inflation, high rates of inflation, control of inflation, monetarism, macroeconomic stability, actual rate of inflation, monetary policies, monetary economy, monetary arrangement, money market, monetary transactions, stable price, price stability

The 1987 Mexican Disinflation Program: An Exchange-rate- based Stabilization?

We examine whether Mexicos disinflation experience during 1987-94 fits the widely accepted set of stylized facts of exchange-ratebased stabilization (ERBS) on inflation, the boom-recession business cycle, and the external sector. A cursory look at Mexican data shows that the experience fits quite closely the stylized facts of ERBS. However, the paper shows that there were some important differences and peculiarities of the Mexican case that deserve further study, especially regarding the role of the nominal anchor and the nature of the business cycle