Forecast Errors Before and After the Great Moderation

This paper investigates the change in private-sector and Federal Reserve forecasts before and after the Great Moderation. We view the Great Moderation as a natural experiment. Using forecasts produced by the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Federal Reserve (Greenbook forecasts) we investigate four questions: 1) How large was the decline in forecast errors? 2) Did forecast accuracy improve relative to the decline in volatility of growth and inflation? 3) Did forecasters respond to the Great Moderation? 4) What are the potential benefits to monetary policymakers of smaller forecast errors? We find that the absolute median error as well as the cross-sectional volatility of forecast errors decreased significantly. Forecasters appeared to have narrowed the dispersion of their forecasts in response to the Great Moderation. Forecast accuracy did not improve relative to the reduction in the volatility of the economy. To the extent that the Fed is forward-looking when it sets its federal funds rate target, improvements in forecast accuracy imply substantial improvements in the Fed’s ability to reach its optimum federal funds rate target.forecast errors, Greenbook, Survey of Professional Forecasters, Great Moderation

From Silence to Voice: A collaborative international partnership to develop a digital resource for use in clinical and education settings about sexual violence from perspectives of students, educators and survivors.

Gender based violence (GBV) – which includes sexual violence - is a significant global public health and societal problem, recognised as a global human rights issue by the World Health Organisation (WHO, 2017). Global estimates indicate that 1 in 3 women experience physical/sexual violence in their lifetime (WHO, 2017). GBV/SV exerts a detrimental impact not only on the lives and health of women, but also those who witness abuse and has been identified as a large scale problem in South Africa with recorded estimates that a woman is raped every seventeen seconds. The impact of GBV/SV on the physical and psychological wellbeing of those who experience abuse is wide ranging. It includes the immediate physical effects for example, physical injury as well as longer term chronic ill health as a result, acute and enduring psychological trauma, mental ill-health, alongside secondary physiological health issues such as gynaecological and sexual health (Feder et al. 2011). It is well evidenced however that healthcare professionals across the spectrum do not respond effectively often due to a lack of knowledge or professional confidence and their own values and assumptions surrounding GBV/SV (McGarry et al. 2015). Education is pivotal, and a proven means to tackle a growing global problem. This includes pre-qualifying healthcare students who are often not exposed to education about GBV/SV within their current curricula. Working with our project partners and key stakeholders in South Africa during 2019, including women who have experienced GBV/SV, the aim of this research was to engage stakeholders in the co-production of a digital e-learning resource to use across multiple healthcare disciplines on GBV/SV. Our aim is to describe the process of an international collaboration, provide the context using survey data and present the digital resource and the evaluations conducted on the application and use within education and clinical settings. References: Feder G, Davies R, Baird K, Dunne D, Eldridge S, Griffiths C, Gregory A, Howell A, Johnson, M., Ramsay J, Garcia-Moreno, C., Armin, A. (2016) The sustainable development goals, violence and women’s and children’s health (WHO) http://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/94/5/16-172205/en/ (accessed 7.7.18) McGarry J., Baker C., Wilson C., Felton A., Banerjee A, (2015). Preparation for safeguarding in UK pre-registration graduate nurse education. Journal of Adult Protection. 17(6), 371-379 World Health Organisation (2017) Violence against women http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/violence-against-women (accessed 7.7.18

The Everyday Life of Food: The Cultural Economy of the Traditional Food Market in England

Rapid transformation in the food retail supply system, accompanied by rational economic efficiency, has marginalized the role that traditional markets play in the UK food distribution system. Yet these markets survive, some even thrive, implying that traditional food markets cannot be defined simply in terms of their distribution function. Traditional food markets are part of the surrounding food retail environment and whether they survive or thrive is dependent on wider economic and societal dynamics and change. This thesis links the micro-level activities of traditional food market exchange with how food systems, power structures and consumption practices interact and transform each other over time and space at the macro-level. The research provides the first detailed assessment of traditional food markets in England and examines their contemporary role in fresh food provisioning. The thesis proposes a cultural economy framework that examines how food retail restructuring and changing patterns of fresh food consumption have affected the internal and external spaces and places that support the everyday economic processes and cultural practices of traditional food market exchange. The research employs a mixed methods approach with three inter-related phases. First, the construction of a database of UK food markets identified 1,124 traditional food markets operating in the UK and the empirical analysis, using geo-coded data and more detailed location quotient (LQ) analysis, mapped the geographies and concentrations of traditional food markets and their links with wholesale markets and farmers' markets. Second, data drawn from an email questionnaire survey with traditional food market managers examined the effects of retail restructuring and changing fresh food shopping habits on these markets. In the third and final phase, detailed analysis from case study research in two contrasting traditional food markets, in the North East and Eastern regions of England, examined how the market as place significantly shapes the distributive processes and practices of buying and selling that transform fresh food into the `market product', and also explored the reciprocal relations between the economic and the cultural and between value(s) and exchange. The research findings provide new insights into the traditional food retail sector. The database and email survey analysis reveal how market geographies have been affected by regulatory, economic and cultural change and demonstrate how market and place are entwined in a relationship that has adapted to retail restructuring and changes in fresh food provisioning. Detailed case study analysis reveals how traditional markets are intimately linked with the regions and cities where they are located and how different geographies, histories and approaches to food and farming have moulded the relationship between market and fresh food over time. Although the overall economic value of fresh food sold on traditional markets is reduced in real terms, its symbolic value as `the market product' is not. Historically and culturally, the traditional market may be considered part of a `traditional' food system that aimed to provide fresh and affordable food to all, but the contemporary market is a different place. The findings reveal a marketplace frequently articulated through parallel fresh food trading and shopping experiences at the supermarket and the farmers' market and informed by practical and local knowledge systems. Knowledge systems help define food-provisioning expertise in the traditional food system and the value put on fresh produce depends on both economic and less tangible factors bound up with cultural and moral understandings. How fresh food is assigned monetary, social and symbolic value by market actors' everyday practices demonstrates a `sliding scale' of moral and monetised values as fresh food takes on cultural form The value(s) assigned to fresh food traded on the market fundamentally shape how it performs in the contemporary context and ultimately determine whether its role in fresh food provisioning declines, survives or thrives

Beyond the Illustration of Research Data: Using professionally facilitated image making techniques to enable participants to describe, enhance and extend data originally captured using traditional text-based methods of research

Using professionally facilitatedimage making techniques to enable participants to describe, enhance and extend data originally captured using traditional text-based methods of research. The Growing Up with Cancer project design • Young people’s experiences of dealing with cancer, its treatment and long terms consequences at the same time as they are growing up • 19 young people aged 16‐29 years who were diagnosed with cancer between the ages of 11‐22 years • Interviewed about their experiences of growing up with cancer • Created self‐portraits about their experiences of growing up with cancer • Interviewed after completed self‐portrait The benefits of a creative process for a research project • Different to a ‘hit and run’ single interview • Process provided an extended opportunity –and for some, multiple opportunities –to reflect on their experiences • Created different way to think about self and experience • Young people decided what they wanted to represent and how –not all the portraits are simply about cancer • Creative process more than a catalyst for a subsequent interview • Self‐portraits engage research audiences in different way to traditional research output

Animal Assisted Therapy in Pediatric Speech-Language Therapy with a Preschool Child with Severe Language Delay: A Single-Subject Design

Background: The application of animal assisted therapy (AAT) in provision of services is an emerging area of research in the allied health literature. Prior investigators have called for additional research concerning applications of animal assisted therapy in specific settings and patient populations. Objectives: to (a) investigate the effect of animal assisted therapy on the quantity of vocalizations in a single child participant with severe speech delay, and (b) identify optimal animal assisted therapy practices in pediatric group speech-language therapy. Design: A case study was conducted using ABA single-case design. The number of vocalizations produced by the participant was measured for 15-minute periods during four initial baseline (no animal assisted therapy) sessions, four sessions with the intervention condition (animal assisted therapy), and three additional baseline (no animal assisted therapy) sessions. Observations were also recorded concerning the interactions between the animal assisted therapy team, the participant, and other children in the group. Results: The number of vocalizations increased markedly during the intervention phase, and the effect was nonreversible. The participant also demonstrated increased attention to tasks and activities during the intervention phase. An increase in unpredictable, forceful movements by the participant and other children was observed after 10-minutes. Conclusions: Although the same degree of increase in vocalizations is not expected for every child exposed to animal assisted therapy, results suggest that animal assisted therapy is a potentially valuable tool for speech-language pathologists working with children who have severe delays in communication skills. Recommendations for future research include consideration of time limits for animal assisted therapy interventions, detailed advance planning with the handler to minimize stressors for the animal assisted therapy team, and ensuring adequate adult personnel for data collection and management of the intervention sessions

Forever-Fit Summer Camp: The Impact of a 6-Week Summer Healthy Lifestyle Day Camp on Anthropometric, Cardiovascular, and Physical Fitness Measures in Youth With Obesity

Pediatric obesity is a public health concern with lifestyle intervention as the first-line treatment. Forever-Fit Summer Camp (FFSC) is a 6-week summer day program offering physical activity, nutrition education, and well-balanced meals to youth at low cost. The aim of the study was to assess the efficacy of this program that does not emphasize weight loss rather emphasizes healthy behaviors on body mass index, cardiovascular and physical fitness. Methods: The inclusion criteria were adolescents between 8 and 12 years and body mass index (BMI) ≥85th percentile. The data were collected at baseline and week 6 (wk-6) and was analyzed for 2013-2018 using paired-sample t tests. Results: The participants' (N = 179) average age was 10.6 ± 1.6 years with a majority of females (71%) and black race/ethnicity (70%). At wk-6, BMI and waist circumference decreased by 0.8 ± 0.7 kg/m2 and 1.0 ± 1.3 in, respectively. Resting heart rate, diastolic and systolic blood pressure decreased by 8.5 ± 11.0 bpm, 6.3 ± 8.8 mmHg, and 6.4 ± 10.1 mmHg, respectively. The number of pushups, curl-ups, and chair squats were higher by 5.8 ± 7.5, 6.7 ± 9.1, and 7.7 ± 8.5, respectively. Conclusion: The FFSC is efficacious for improving BMI, cardiovascular, and physical fitness in the short term. The effect of similar episodic efforts that implement healthy lifestyle modifications throughout the school year should be investigated

Impact of Corn Silage Moisture and/or Kernel Processing at Harvest on Finishing Steer Growth Performance, Efficiency of Dietary Net Energy Utilization and Carcass Traits

Study Description: Red Angus steers (n = 192; initial shrunk BW = 983 ± 62.3 lbs) were used in the 112 d finishing experiment at the Southeast Research Farm (SERF) of the South Dakota Agricultural Experiment Station in Beresford. Steers were from a single source and obtained from a local SD auction facility. Steers were received 2 weeks prior to trial initiation. Steers were offered a common diet containing 60% concentrate upon arrival. Steers were transitioned to a 90% concentrate diet over the course of 14 d. Steers were consuming the finishing diet (Table 1) at the initiation of the experiment. Fresh feed was manufactured once daily for each treatment in a single batch using a stationary mixer and bunks were managed for ad libitum access to feed. Actual diet formulation and composition is based upon weekly DM analyses, tabular nutrient values, and corresponding feed batching records. Diets presented in Table 1 are actual DM diet composition, tabular nutrient concentrations, and tabular energy values (Preston, 2016)

Discovery of ram-pressure stripped gas around an elliptical galaxy in Abell 2670

Studies of cluster galaxies are increasingly finding galaxies with spectacular one-sided tails of gas and young stars, suggestive of intense ram-pressure stripping. These so-called "jellyfish" galaxies typically have late-type morphology. In this paper, we present MUSE observations of an elliptical galaxy in Abell 2670 with long tails of material visible in the optical spectra, as well as blobs with tadpole-like morphology. The spectra in the central part of the galaxy reveals a stellar component as well as ionized gas. The stellar component does not have significant rotation, while the ionized gas defines a clear star-forming gas disk. We argue, based on deep optical images of the galaxy, that the gas was most likely acquired during a past wet merger. It is possible that the star-forming blobs are also remnants of the merger. In addition, the direction and kinematics of the one-sided ionized tails, combined with the tadpole morphology of the star-forming blobs, strongly suggests that the system is undergoing ram pressure from the intracluster medium. In summary, this paper presents the discovery of a post-merger elliptical galaxy undergoing ram pressure stripping.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ