Experiences in Bayesian Inference in Baltic Salmon Management

We review a success story regarding Bayesian inference in fisheries management in the Baltic Sea. The management of salmon fisheries is currently based on the results of a complex Bayesian population dynamic model, and managers and stakeholders use the probabilities in their discussions. We also discuss the technical and human challenges in using Bayesian modeling to give practical advice to the public and to government officials and suggest future areas in which it can be applied. In particular, large databases in fisheries science offer flexible ways to use hierarchical models to learn the population dynamics parameters for those by-catch species that do not have similar large stock-specific data sets like those that exist for many target species. This information is required if we are to understand the future ecosystem risks of fisheries.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-STS431 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Evidence for spared attention to faces in 7-month-old infants after prenatal exposure to antiepileptic drugs

Introduction: Prenatal antiepileptic drug (AED) exposure is associated with an increased risk of cognitive impairment and autism spectrum disorders detected mainly at the age of two to six years. We examined whether the developitiental aberrations associated with prenatal AED exposure-could be-detected already in infancy and whether effects on visual attention can be observed at this early age. Material and methods: We compared a prospective cohort of infants with in utero exposure to AED (n = 56) with infants without drug exposures (n = 62). The assessments performed at the age of seven months included standardized neurodevelopmental scores (Griffiths Mental Developmental Scale and Hammersmith Infant Neurological Examination) as well as a novel eye-tracking-based test for visual attention and orienting to faces. Background information included prospective collection of AED exposure data, pregnancy outcome, neuropsychological evaluation of the mothers, and information on maternal epilepsy type. Results: Carbamazepine, oxcarbazepine, and valproate, but not lamotrigine or levetiracetam, were associated with impaired early language abilities at the age of seven months. The general speed of visuospatial orienting or attentional bias for faces measured by eye-tracker-based tests did not differ between AED-exposed and control infants. Discussion: Our findings support the idea that prenatal AED exposure may impair verbal abilities, and this effect may be detected already in infancy. In contrast, the early development of attention to faces was spared after in utero AED exposure. (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Inter- and intra-annual dynamics of photosynthesis differ between forest floor vegetation and tree canopy in a subarctic Scots pine stand

Corrigendum: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 297, 15 February 2021, 108284. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108284We studied the inter- and intra-annual dynamics of the photosynthesis of forest floor vegetation and tree canopy in a subarctic Scots pine stand at the northern timberline in Finland. We tackled the issue using three different approaches: 1) measuring carbon dioxide exchange above and below canopy with the eddy covariance technique, 2) modelling the photosynthesis of the tree canopy based on shoot chamber measurements, and 3) upscaling the forest floor photosynthesis using biomass estimates and available information on the annual cycle of photosynthetic capacity of those species. The studied ecosystem was generally a weak sink of carbon but the sink strength showed notable year-to-year variation. Total ecosystem respiration and photosynthesis indicated a clear temperature limitation for the carbon exchange. However, the increase in photosynthetic production was steeper than the increase in respiration with temperature, indicating that warm temperatures increase the sink strength and do not stimulate the total ecosystem respiration as much in the 4-year window studied. The interannual variation in the photosynthetic production of the forest stand mainly resulted from the forest floor vegetation, whereas the photosynthesis of the tree canopy seemed to be more stable from year to year. Tree canopy photosynthesis increased earlier in the spring, whereas that of the forest floor increased after snowmelt, highlighting that models for photosynthesis in the northern area should also include snow cover in order to accurately estimate the seasonal dynamics of photosynthesis in these forests.Peer reviewe

Dynamic Eye Tracking Based Metrics for Infant Gaze Patterns in the Face-Distractor Competition Paradigm

Peer reviewe

Vauvan älyvaatteet : hypeä ja lupausta paremmasta terveydenhoidosta

Vertaisarvioitu.Puettavan teknologian ratkaisut ovat levinneet nopeasti kuluttajamarkkinoilla seuraten lähes jokaisen aikuisen elämää älypuhelimissa tai rannelaitteissa kulkevilla antureilla. Pilvipalveluissa olevat tekoälypohjaiset algoritmit antavat yhä useammin arkielämän kannalta merkityksellisiä tuloksia. Nämä älykkään tuntuiset vaatteet ja muut puettavat laitteet ovat toistaiseksi lähinnä hyvinvointiteknologian tarpeisiin tehtyjä kuluttajatuotteita. Viime vuosina on lisääntynyt nopeasti niiden jatkokehitys myös lääketieteelliseen käyttöön. Pullonkaulaksi muodostuu se, että lääketieteellisen laitteen vaatimukset eroavat huomattavasti kuluttajatuotteista. Uudet avoimeen rajapintaan kehitetyt sensori- ja ohjelmistoratkaisut ovat mahdollistaneet älyvaatekehityksen myös akateemisena tutkimus- ja kehitystyönä. Lähivuosina nähdään todennäköisesti useita kliiniseen käyttöön lapsille suunnattuja lääketieteellisiä älyvaatteita. Pitkäaikainenkin diagnosointi ja hoidon seuranta on niiden avulla mahdollista lapsen luonnollisessa elinympäristössä.Peer reviewe

Building an Open Source Classifier for the Neonatal EEG Background: A Systematic Feature-Based Approach From Expert Scoring to Clinical Visualization

Neonatal brain monitoring in the neonatal intensive care units (NICU) requires a continuous review of the spontaneous cortical activity, i.e., the electroencephalograph (EEG) background activity. This needs development of bedside methods for an automated assessment of the EEG background activity. In this paper, we present development of the key components of a neonatal EEG background classifier, starting from the visual background scoring to classifier design, and finally to possible bedside visualization of the classifier results. A dataset with 13,200 5-minute EEG epochs (8–16 channels) from 27 infants with birth asphyxia was used for classifier training after scoring by two independent experts. We tested three classifier designs based on 98 computational features, and their performance was assessed with respect to scoring system, pre- and post-processing of labels and outputs, choice of channels, and visualization in monitor displays. The optimal solution achieved an overall classification accuracy of 97% with a range across subjects of 81–100%. We identified a set of 23 features that make the classifier highly robust to the choice of channels and missing data due to artefact rejection. Our results showed that an automated bedside classifier of EEG background is achievable, and we publish the full classifier algorithm to allow further clinical replication and validation studies.Peer reviewe

Pinus sylvestris as a missing source of nitrous oxide and methane in boreal forest

Boreal forests comprise 73% of the world's coniferous forests. Based on forest floor measurements, they have been considered a significant natural sink of methane (CH4) and a natural source of nitrous oxide (N2O), both of which are important greenhouse gases. However, the role of trees, especially conifers, in ecosystem N2O and CH4 exchange is only poorly understood. We show for the first time that mature Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees consistently emit N2O and CH4 from both stems and shoots. The shoot fluxes of N2O and CH4 exceeded the stem flux rates by 16 and 41 times, respectively. Moreover, higher stem N2O and CH4 fluxes were observed from wet than from dry areas of the forest. The N2O release from boreal pine forests may thus be underestimated and the uptake of CH4 may be overestimated when ecosystem flux calculations are based solely on forest floor measurements. The contribution of pine trees to the N2O and CH4 exchange of the boreal pine forest seems to increase considerably under high soil water content, thus highlighting the urgent need to include tree-emissions in greenhouse gas emission inventories.Peer reviewe

A comprehensive approach to scenario-based risk management for Arctic waters

While society benefits from Arctic shipping, it is necessary to recognize that ship operations in Arctic waters pose significant risks to people, the environment, and property. To support the management of those risks, this article presents a comprehensive approach addressing both short-term operational risks, as well as risks related to long-term extreme ice loads. For the management of short-term operational risks, an extended version of the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS) considering the magnitude of the consequences of potential adverse events is proposed. For the management of risks related to long-term extreme ice loads, guidelines are provided for using existing analytical, numerical, and semi-empirical methods. In addition, to support the design of ice class ship structures, the article proposes a novel approach that can be used in the conceptual design phase for the determination of preliminary scantlings for primary hull structural members.Peer reviewe

An Open Source Classifier for Bed Mattress Signal in Infant Sleep Monitoring

Objective To develop a non-invasive and clinically practical method for a long-term monitoring of infant sleep cycling in the intensive care unit. Methods Forty three infant polysomnography recordings were performed at 1-18 weeks of age, including a piezo element bed mattress sensor to record respiratory and gross-body movements. The hypnogram scored from polysomnography signals was used as the ground truth in training sleep classifiers based on 20,022 epochs of movement and/or electrocardiography signals. Three classifier designs were evaluated in the detection of deep sleep (N3 state): support vector machine (SVM), Long Short-Term Memory neural network, and convolutional neural network (CNN). Results Deep sleep was accurately identified from other states with all classifier variants. The SVM classifier based on a combination of movement and electrocardiography features had the highest performance (AUC 97.6%). A SVM classifier based on only movement features had comparable accuracy (AUC 95.0%). The feature-independent CNN resulted in roughly comparable accuracy (AUC 93.3%). Conclusion Automated non-invasive tracking of sleep state cycling is technically feasible using measurements from a piezo element situated under a bed mattress. Significance An open source infant deep sleep detector of this kind allows quantitative, continuous bedside assessment of infant's sleep cycling.Peer reviewe