Dels jeroglífics egipcis a la compartició de secrets

A la secció 1 parlarem d'un jeroglífic inscrit als laterals de la llinda de Sant Andreu de la Barroca, una petita església perduda en un indret recòndit de la Vall del Llémena, a la Garrotxa. A propòsit d'aquest petit enigma ludolingüístic, plantejarem (i finalment resoldrem) un problema de naturalesa combinatòria que el lector interessat pot provar de resoldre com a exercici. A la secció 2 farem un breu repàs de la història del desxiframent d'escriptures de civilitzacions antigues. Aprofitarem l'avinentesa per introduir els conceptes d'entropia i redundància del llenguatge, que ens ajudaran a entendre per què, tard o d'hora, qualsevol escriptura antiga finalment acaba essent desxifrada quan es té una conjectura raonable sobre quina és la llengua que transcriu. Finalment, a la secció 3 definirem el concepte d'esquema de compartició de secrets, un problema de criptografia moderna en el qual un conjunt de persones gestiona petits fragments d'informació compartida, i que es resol aplicant de manera brillant una idea que prové del món de l'àlgebra lineal més elemental

A network epidemic model with preventive rewiring: comparative analysis of the initial phase

This paper is concerned with stochastic SIR and SEIR epidemic models on random networks in which individuals may rewire away from infected neighbors at some rate $\omega$ (and reconnect to non-infectious individuals with probability $\alpha$ or else simply drop the edge if $\alpha=0$), so-called preventive rewiring. The models are denoted SIR-$\omega$ and SEIR-$\omega$, and we focus attention on the early stages of an outbreak, where we derive expression for the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and the expected degree of the infectious nodes $E(D_I)$ using two different approximation approaches. The first approach approximates the early spread of an epidemic by a branching process, whereas the second one uses pair approximation. The expressions are compared with the corresponding empirical means obtained from stochastic simulations of SIR-$\omega$ and SEIR-$\omega$ epidemics on Poisson and scale-free networks. Without rewiring of exposed nodes, the two approaches predict the same epidemic threshold and the same $E(D_I)$ for both types of epidemics, the latter being very close to the mean degree obtained from simulated epidemics over Poisson networks. Above the epidemic threshold, pairwise models overestimate the value of $R_0$ computed from simulations, which turns out to be very close to the one predicted by the branching process approximation. When exposed individuals also rewire with $\alpha > 0$ (perhaps unaware of being infected), the two approaches give different epidemic thresholds, with the branching process approximation being more in agreement with simulations.Comment: 25 pages, 7 figure

Robustness of behaviourally-induced oscillations in epidemic models under a low rate of imported cases

This paper is concerned with the robustness of the sustained oscillations predicted by an epidemic ODE model defined on contact networks. The model incorporates the spread of awareness among individuals and, moreover, a small inflow of imported cases. These cases prevent stochastic extinctions when we simulate the epidemics and, hence, they allow to check whether the average dynamics for the fraction of infected individuals are accurately predicted by the ODE model. Stochastic simulations confirm the existence of sustained oscillations for different types of random networks, with a sharp transition from a non-oscillatory asymptotic regime to a periodic one as the alerting rate of susceptible individuals increases from very small values. This abrupt transition to periodic epidemics of high amplitude is quite accurately predicted by the Hopf-bifurcation curve computed from the ODE model using the alerting rate and the infection transmission rate for aware individuals as tuning parameters.Comment: 17 pages, 11 figure

Saddle-node bifurcation of limit cycles in an epidemic model with two levels of awareness

In this paper we study the appearance of bifurcations of limit cycles in an epidemic model with two types of aware individuals. All the transition rates are constant except for the alerting decay rate of the most aware individuals and the rate of creation of the less aware individuals, which depend on the disease prevalence in a non-linear way. For the ODE model, the numerical computation of the limit cycles and the study of their stability are made by means of the Poincar\'e map. Moreover, sufficient conditions for the existence of an endemic equilibrium are also obtained. These conditions involve a rather natural relationship between the transmissibility of the disease and that of awareness. Finally, stochastic simulations of the model under a very low rate of imported cases are used to confirm the scenarios of bistability (endemic equilibrium and limit cycle) observed in the solutions of the ODE model.Comment: 18 page

Characterization of the tree cycles with minimum positive entropy for any period

Consider, for any integer $n\ge3$, the set $\text{Pos}_n$ of all $n$-periodic tree patterns with positive topological entropy and the set $\text{Irr}_n\subset\text{Pos}_n$ of all $n$-periodic irreducible tree patterns. The aim of this paper is to determine the elements of minimum entropy in the families $\text{Pos}_n$, $\text{Irr}_n$ and $\text{Pos}_n\setminus\text{Irr}_n$. Let $\lambda_n$ be the unique real root of the polynomial $x^n-2x-1$ in $(1,+\infty)$. We explicitly construct an irreducible $n$-periodic tree pattern $\mathcal{Q}_n$ whose entropy is $\log(\lambda_n)$. We prove that this entropy is minimum in $\text{Pos}_n$. Since the pattern $\mathcal{Q}_n$ is irreducible, $\mathcal{Q}_n$ also minimizes the entropy in the family $\text{Irr}_n$. We also prove that the minimum positive entropy in the set $\text{Pos}_n\setminus\text{Irr}_n$ (which is nonempty only for composite integers $n\ge6$) is $\log(\lambda_{n/p})/p$, where $p$ is the least prime factor of $n$.Comment: 39 pages, 21 figure

Erratum to: A Network Epidemic Model with Preventive Rewiring: Comparative Analysis of the Initial Phase

Erratum de l'article: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-016-0227-

A multilayer temporal network model for STD spreading accounting for permanent and casual partners

Sexually transmitted diseases (STD) modeling has used contact networks to study the spreading of pathogens. Recent findings have stressed the increasing role of casual partners, often enabled by online dating applications. We study the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic model -appropriate for STDs- over a two-layer network aimed to account for the effect of casual partners in the spreading of STDs. In this novel model, individuals have a set of steady partnerships (links in layer 1). At certain rates, every individual can switch between active and inactive states and, while active, it establishes casual partnerships with some probability with active neighbors in layer 2 (whose links can be thought as potential casual partnerships). Individuals that are not engaged in casual partnerships are classified as inactive, and the transitions between active and inactive states are independent of their infectious state. We use mean-field equations as well as stochastic simulations to derive the epidemic threshold, which decreases substantially with the addition of the second layer. Interestingly, for a given expected number of casual partnerships, which depends on the probabilities of being active, this threshold turns out to depend on the duration of casual partnerships: the longer they are, the lower the threshold

On the minimum positive entropy for cycles on trees

Consider, for any n ∈ N, the set Posn of all n-periodic tree patterns with positive topological entropy and the set Irrn ( Posn of all n-periodic irreducible tree patterns. The aim of this paper is to determine the elements of minimum entropy in the families Posn and Irrn. Let λn be the unique real root of the polynomial xn − 2x − 1 in (1, +∞). We explicitly construct an irreducible n-periodic tree pattern Qn whose entropy is log(λn). For n = mk, where m is a prime, we prove that this entropy is minimum in the set Posn. Since the pattern Qn is irreducible, Qn also minimizes the entropy in the family Irrn