Radiative transfer modelling of parsec-scale dusty warped discs

Warped discs have been found on (sub-)parsec scale in some nearby Seyfert nuclei, identified by their maser emission. Using dust radiative transfer simulations we explore their observational signatures in the infrared in order to find out whether they can partly replace the molecular torus. Strong variations of the brightness distributions are found, depending on the orientation of the warp with respect to the line of sight. Whereas images at short wavelengths typically show a disc-like and a point source component, the warp itself only becomes visible at far-infrared wavelengths. A similar variety is visible in the shapes of the spectral energy distributions. Especially for close to edge-on views, the models show silicate feature strengths ranging from deep absorption to strong emission for variations of the lines of sight towards the warp. To test the applicability of our model, we use the case of the Circinus galaxy, where infrared interferometry has revealed a highly elongated emission component matching a warped maser disc in orientation and size. Our model is for the first time able to present a physical explanation for the observed dust morphology as coming from the AGN heated dust. As opposed to available torus models, a warped disc morphology produces a variety of silicate feature shapes for grazing lines of sight, close to an edge-on view. This could be an attractive alternative to a claimed change of the dust composition for the case of the nearby Seyfert 2 galaxy NGC 1068, which harbours a warped maser disc as well.Comment: accepted by MNRA

Characterization of a real-time tracer for isoprene epoxydiols-derived secondary organic aerosol (IEPOX-SOA) from aerosol mass spectrometer measurements

Substantial amounts of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) can be formed from isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX), which are oxidation products of isoprene mainly under low-NO conditions. Total IEPOX-SOA, which may include SOA formed from other parallel isoprene oxidation pathways, was quantified by applying positive matrix factorization (PMF) to aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) measurements. The IEPOX-SOA fractions of organic aerosol (OA) in multiple field studies across several continents are summarized here and show consistent patterns with the concentration of gas-phase IEPOX simulated by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. During the Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study (SOAS), 78 % of PMF-resolved IEPOX-SOA is accounted by the measured IEPOX-SOA molecular tracers (2-methyltetrols, C5-Triols, and IEPOX-derived organosulfate and its dimers), making it the highest level of molecular identification of an ambient SOA component to our knowledge. An enhanced signal at C5H6O+ (m/z 82) is found in PMF-resolved IEPOX-SOA spectra. To investigate the suitability of this ion as a tracer for IEPOX-SOA, we examine fC5H6O(fC5H6O= C5H6O+/OA) across multiple field, chamber, and source data sets. A background of ~ 1.7 ± 0.1 &permil; (&permil; = parts per thousand) is observed in studies strongly influenced by urban, biomass-burning, and other anthropogenic primary organic aerosol (POA). Higher background values of 3.1 ± 0.6 &permil; are found in studies strongly influenced by monoterpene emissions. The average laboratory monoterpene SOA value (5.5 ± 2.0 &permil;) is 4 times lower than the average for IEPOX-SOA (22 ± 7 &permil;), which leaves some room to separate both contributions to OA. Locations strongly influenced by isoprene emissions under low-NO levels had higher fC5H6O (~ 6.5 ± 2.2 &permil; on average) than other sites, consistent with the expected IEPOX-SOA formation in those studies. fC5H6O in IEPOX-SOA is always elevated (12–40 &permil;) but varies substantially between locations, which is shown to reflect large variations in its detailed molecular composition. The low fC5H6O (< 3 &permil;) reported in non-IEPOX-derived isoprene-SOA from chamber studies indicates that this tracer ion is specifically enhanced from IEPOX-SOA, and is not a tracer for all SOA from isoprene. We introduce a graphical diagnostic to study the presence and aging of IEPOX-SOA as a triangle plot of fCO2 vs. fC5H6O. Finally, we develop a simplified method to estimate ambient IEPOX-SOA mass concentrations, which is shown to perform well compared to the full PMF method. The uncertainty of the tracer method is up to a factor of ~ 2, if the fC5H6O of the local IEPOX-SOA is not available. When only unit mass-resolution data are available, as with the aerosol chemical speciation monitor (ACSM), all methods may perform less well because of increased interferences from other ions at m/z 82. This study clarifies the strengths and limitations of the different AMS methods for detection of IEPOX-SOA and will enable improved characterization of this OA component

UK Housing Market: Time Series Processes with Independent and Identically Distributed Residuals

The paper examines whether a univariate data generating process can be identified which explains the data by having residuals that are independent and identically distributed, as verified by the BDS test. The stationary first differenced natural log quarterly house price index is regressed, initially with a constant variance and then with a conditional variance. The only regression function that produces independent and identically distributed standardised residuals is a mean process based on a pure random walk format with Exponential GARCH in mean for the conditional variance. There is an indication of an asymmetric volatility feedback effect but higher frequency data is required to confirm this. There could be scope for forecasting the index but this is tempered by the reduction in the power of the BDS test if there is a non-linear conditional variance process

Conversion of hydroperoxides to carbonyls in field and laboratory instrumentation: Observational bias in diagnosing pristine versus anthropogenically controlled atmospheric chemistry

Atmospheric volatile organic compound (VOC) oxidation mechanisms under pristine (rural/remote) and urban (anthropogenically-influenced) conditions follow distinct pathways due to large differences in nitrogen oxide (NO_x) concentrations. These two pathways lead to products that have different chemical and physical properties and reactivity. Under pristine conditions, isoprene hydroxy hydroperoxides (ISOPOOHs) are the dominant first-generation isoprene oxidation products. Utilizing authentic ISOPOOH standards, we demonstrate that two of the most commonly used methods of measuring VOC oxidation products (i.e., gas chromatography and proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry) observe these hydroperoxides as their equivalent high-NO isoprene oxidation products – methyl vinyl ketone (MVK) and methacrolein (MACR). This interference has led to an observational bias affecting our understanding of global atmospheric processes. Considering these artifacts will help close the gap on discrepancies regarding the identity and fate of reactive organic carbon, revise our understanding of surface-atmosphere exchange of reactive carbon and SOA formation, and improve our understanding of atmospheric oxidative capacity

Under fire-simultaneous volatilome and transcriptome analysis unravels fine-scale responses of tansy chemotypes to dual herbivore attack

BACKGROUND: Tansy plants (Tanacetum vulgare L.) are known for their high intraspecific chemical variation, especially of volatile organic compounds (VOC) from the terpenoid compound group. These VOCs are closely involved in plant-insect interactions and, when profiled, can be used to classify plants into groups known as chemotypes. Tansy chemotypes have been shown to influence plant-aphid interactions, however, to date no information is available on the response of different tansy chemotypes to simultaneous herbivory by more than one insect species. RESULTS: Using a multi-cuvette system, we investigated the responses of five tansy chemotypes to feeding by sucking and/or chewing herbivores (aphids and caterpillars; Metopeurum fuscoviride Stroyan and Spodoptera littoralis Boisduval). Herbivory by caterpillars following aphid infestation led to a plant chemotype-specific change in the patterns of terpenoids stored in trichome hairs and in VOC emissions. The transcriptomic analysis of a plant chemotype represents the first de novo assembly of a transcriptome in tansy and demonstrates priming effects of aphids on a subsequent herbivory. Overall, we show that the five chemotypes do not react in the same way to the two herbivores. As expected, we found that caterpillar feeding increased VOC emissions, however, a priori aphid infestation only led to a further increase in VOC emissions for some chemotypes. CONCLUSIONS: We were able to show that different chemotypes respond to the double herbivore attack in different ways, and that pre-treatment with aphids had a priming effect on plants when they were subsequently exposed to a chewing herbivore. If neighbouring chemotypes in a field population react differently to herbivory/dual herbivory, this could possibly have effects from the individual level to the group level. Individuals of some chemotypes may respond more efficiently to herbivory stress than others, and in a group environment these "louder" chemotypes may affect the local insect community, including the natural enemies of herbivores, and other neighbouring plants

Circulating Micro-RNAs as Potential Blood-Based Markers for Early Stage Breast Cancer Detection

INTRODUCTION: MicroRNAs (miRNAs, miRs) are a class of small, non-coding RNA molecules with relevance as regulators of gene expression thereby affecting crucial processes in cancer development. MiRNAs offer great potential as biomarkers for cancer detection due to their remarkable stability in blood and their characteristic expression in many different diseases. We investigated whether microarray-based miRNA profiling on whole blood could discriminate between early stage breast cancer patients and healthy controls. METHODS: We performed microarray-based miRNA profiling on whole blood of 48 early stage breast cancer patients at diagnosis along with 57 healthy individuals as controls. This was followed by a real-time semi-quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-qPCR) validation in a separate cohort of 24 early stage breast cancer patients from a breast cancer screening unit and 24 age matched controls using two differentially expressed miRNAs (miR-202, miR-718). RESULTS: Using the significance level of p<0.05, we found that 59 miRNAs were differentially expressed in whole blood of early stage breast cancer patients compared to healthy controls. 13 significantly up-regulated miRNAs and 46 significantly down-regulated miRNAs in our microarray panel of 1100 miRNAs and miRNA star sequences could be detected. A set of 240 miRNAs that was evaluated by radial basis function kernel support vector machines and 10-fold cross validation yielded a specificity of 78.8%, and a sensitivity of 92.5%, as well as an accuracy of 85.6%. Two miRNAs were validated by RT-qPCR in an independent cohort. The relative fold changes of the RT-qPCR validation were in line with the microarray data for both miRNAs, and statistically significant differences in miRNA-expression were found for miR-202. CONCLUSIONS: MiRNA profiling in whole blood has potential as a novel method for early stage breast cancer detection, but there are still challenges that need to be addressed to establish these new biomarkers in clinical use

A framework for evaluating the influence of climate, dispersal limitation, and biotic interactions using fossil pollen associations across the late Quaternary

Environmental conditions, dispersal lags, and interactions among species are major factors structuring communities through time and across space. Ecologists have emphasized the importance of biotic interactions in determining local patterns of species association. In contrast, abiotic limits, dispersal limitation, and historical factors have commonly been invoked to explain community structure patterns at larger spatiotemporal scales, such as the appearance of late Pleistocene no-analog communities or latitudinal gradients of species richness in both modern and fossil assemblages. Quantifying the relative influence of these processes on species co-occurrence patterns is not straightforward. We provide a framework for assessing causes of species associations by combining a null-model analysis of co-occurrence with additional analyses of climatic differences and spatial pattern for pairs of pollen taxa that are significantly associated across geographic space. We tested this framework with data on associations among 106 fossil pollen taxa and paleoclimate simulations from eastern North America across the late Quaternary. The number and proportion of significantly associated taxon pairs increased over time, but only 449 of 56 194 taxon pairs were significantly different from random. Within this significant subset of pollen taxa, biotic interactions were rarely the exclusive cause of associations. Instead, climatic or spatial differences among sites were most frequently associated with significant patterns of taxon association. Most taxon pairs that exhibited co-occurrence patterns indicative of biotic interactions at one time did not exhibit significant associations at other times. Evidence for environmental filtering and dispersal limitation was weakest for aggregated pairs between 16 and 11 kyr BP, suggesting enhanced importance of positive species interactions during this interval. The framework can thus be used to identify species associations that may reflect biotic interactions because these associations are not tied to environmental or spatial differences. Furthermore, temporally repeated analyses of spatial associations can reveal whether such associations persist through time

Setting the Foundation for Transforming the U.S. Energy System

Setting the Foundation for Transforming the U.S. Energy System: Three Federal Action Plans for Near- and Long-term Success is a short document written for the incoming U.S. Federal Administration's Transistion Team. The document represents what we believe to be foundational elements of a broad campaign to make rapid progress towards these goals for the longterm transformation necessary to meet our national economic, security, and environmental goals. The three immediate action plans include: * Creating Tomorrow’s Electricity Infrastructure * Decarbonizing the Energy Economy *Enabling Science-Based Polic