THE BIAS FOR FORWARD EXCHANGE RATE AND THE RISK PREMIUM: AN EXPLANATION WITH A STOCHASTIC AND DYNAMIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL

Forward exchange rate unbiassedness is rejected in test for international exchange markets. Such issue can be interpreted as evidence of a biased forward rate and/or time-varying risk premia. This paper proposes a stochastic general equilibrium model which generates substantial variability in the magnitude of predictable excess returns. Simulation exercises suggest that higher persistency in the monetary policy produces higher bias in the estimated slope coefficient in the regression of the change in the logarithm of the spot exchange rate on the forward premium. Also, our model suggest that the nature of the transmission between monetary shocks can explain the excess returns puzzle. Empirical evidence for the DM-USD rate that support our theoretical results is provided. La insesgadez del tipo forward ha sido ampliamente rechazada en los estudios empíricos sobre los mercados de tipo cambio internacionales. Este aspecto puede interpretarse como la existencia de un sesgo en la capacidad predictiva del tipo forward y/o la presencia de una prima de riesgo cambiante en el tiempo. Este trabajo propone un modelo dinámico y estocástico de equilibrio general que genera amplia volatilidad en la prima de riesgo. Los ejercicios de simulación llevados a cabo sugieren que una mayor persistencia de la política monetaria produce un mayor sesgo en la pendiente estimada de una regresión del cambio en el logaritmo del tipo spot sobre la prima de riesgo. Además, el modelo sugiere que la naturaleza de la transmisión de los shocks monetarios puede explicar dicho sesgo. Finalmente, el trabajo presenta evidencia empírica sobre el tipo de cambio entre el marco alemán y el dólar americano en línea con los resultados teóricos.Teoría de las expectativas, Prima de riesgo, Tipo de cambio forward, Simulación. Expectations theory, Risk premium, Forward exchange rates, Simulations.

THE EFFECT OF THE EMU ON SHORT AND LONG-RUN STOCK MARKET DYNAMICS: NEW EVIDENCE ON FINANCIAL INTEGRATION

This paper deals with the time evolution of stock market integration around the introductionof the euro. In particular we test whether the degree of integration between the main eurozonecountries increased after European monetary union. The contribution of the paper to the extantliterature is twofold: a) first, we take into account the potential long-run equilibrium relationshipbetween stock indices allowing for structural changes in the cointegration space that might capturethe effect of the introduction of the euro, and b) we formally test the existence of greater financialintegration after European monetary union across the main member countries and between thesemembers and the UK. Empirical evidence reveal the existence of long-run equilibrium relationshipsbetween European stock markets even before the introduction of the euro. Our empirical findingssuggest that financial integration is not the direct consequence of the removal of exchange rate riskdue to currency unification. Rather, it arises as a result of macroeconomic convergence. This aspectis corroborated by the nature of the principal component structure of estimated conditionalcorrelations. Este trabajo analiza la evolución del grado de integración de los mercados bursátileseuropeos en torno a la introducción del euro. En particular se contrasta si el grado de integraciónentre los principales miembros de la Unión Europea y Monetaria se ha incrementado a partir de laintroducción del euro. La contribución del trabajo es doble: a) por un lado se tiene en cuenta laposible existencia de relaciones de cointegración entre los índices bursátiles, permitiendo laexistencia de cambios estructurales en el espacio de cointegración y b) se proporciona un contrasteformal para la hipótesis nula de mayor grado de integración después de la introducción de la monedacomún. La evidencia empírica revela la existencia de relaciones de equilibrio a largo plazo entre losmercados, incluso antes de la introducción del euro. Los resultados sugieren que la integraciónfinanciera no es el resultado de la adopción de la moneda común sino que es un proceso dinámicoque se ha visto fortalecido por la unificación de la moneda. Este aspecto es corroborado por lanaturaleza de la estructura de componentes principales que se obtiene a partir de la medida deintegración considerada.cointegración, mercados financieros, Unión Europea y Monetaria, integración financiera dinámica cointegration, dynamic financial integration, stock markets, European Monetary Union.

INTRODUCING THE MINI-FUTURES CONTRACT ON IBEX-35: IMPLICATIONS FOR PRICE DISCOVERY AND VOLATILITY TRANSMISSION

In November 2001, the Spanish Official Exchange for Financial Futures and options launched the mini IBEX-35 futures contract. Following the seminal paper of Bessembider and Seguin (1992), this paper analyzes the effects of the introduction of the mini-futures contract in the Spanish stock index futures market. The objective of the paper is twofold: a) to analyze the potential destabilizing effect of the mini futures trading activity on the distribution of spot returns, and b) to test whether the mini futures contract significantly contributes to the price discovery process. A non-parametric approach is used to estimate the density function of spot return conditional to both spot and futures trading volume. Empirical findings using 15-minutes intraday data reveals that the mini futures trading activity enhances the price discovery function of the derivative market and does not destabilize spot prices. En Noviembre de 2001, el Mercado Oficial de Futuros y Opciones Financierosen España introdujo el contrato de futuros mini sobre el Ibex 35. En la línea del trabajode Bessembinder y Seguin (1992), este trabajo analiza el efecto de la introducción dedicho contrato sobre el mercado de contado. En particular, hay dos objetivosfundamentales en el trabajo: a) analizar la potencial desestabilización de la actividadnegociadora del mercado de derivados sobre el mercado de contado, y b) estudiar lacontribución del nuevo contrato al proceso de formación de precios del mercado decontado. Para ello, se procede a la estimación no paramétrica de la función de densidadde la rentabilidad del contado, condicional al volumen de negociación tanto el mercadode contado como de futuros. Los resultados empíricos a partir de datos intradía cada15 minutos revelan no solo que el nuevo contrato no tiende a desestabilizar el mercadode contado, sino que además contribuye de forma significativa al proceso de formaciónde precios en el mismo.Futuros mini, price discovery, desestabilización Ibex 35 Mini-futures, price discovery, destabilization, Ibex 35

Liquidity and hedging effectiveness under futures mispricing: International evidence

We analyze the hedging effectiveness of positions that replicate stock indexes using corresponding futures contracts through the application of a dynamic, stochastic hedging strategy proposed by Lafuente, J. A. and Novales, A. (2003). Conclusive gains do not emerge in any of the markets analyzed over the period considered, relative to the use of a constant unit hedge ratio. These findings are consistent with the trend observed in the IBEX 35 futures market study of Lafuente, J. A. and Novales, A. (2003). Our empirical evidence suggests that, contrary to what happens in less liquid markets, the discrepancy between theoretical and quoted prices in index futures contracts in fully developed markets does not represent a noise factor that can be successfully exploited for hedging

Study of the biomass accumulation from inoculation to clogging in a biofilter treating toluene at high loads

Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Monetary policy regimes and the forward bias for foreign exchange

This paper provides a theoretical discussion of the forward premium anomaly. We reformulate the well-known Lucas (1982) model by allowing for the existence ofmonetarypolicy regimes. The monetary supply is viewed as having two stochastic components: (a) a persistent component that reflects the preferences of the central bank regarding the long-run money supply or inflation target, and (b) a transitory component that represents short-lived interventions. To generate agents’ forecasts, we consider two scenarios: (a) consumers can distinguish the permanent and the transitory components of the money supply (complete information), and (b) consumers face a signal-extraction problem to disentangle permanent and transitory components of the money supply (incomplete information). We simulate the model from a careful estimate of the parameters involved in the model. Numerical simulations reveal that, under complete information, forward unbiasedness cannot be rejected at conventionally significant levels. However, when learning about monetary policy is incorporated, the forward bias can be reproduced without artificially assuming an unreasonable degree of risk aversion

Optimization of Fast Spin Echo Studies b y Software Simulation

Procedings of the International Symposium on Computer and Communication Systems for Image Guided Diagnosis and Therapy, Paris, France, June 26-29, 1996Publicad

Diseño de phantoms para resonancia magnética

[Abstract] Congreso Nacional de Radiología 23, organizado por la Sociedad Española de Radiología, Palma de Mallorca, España, 18 - 22 mayo 199

Gramine derivatives targeting Ca2+ channels and Ser/Thr phosphatases: A new dual strategy for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases

This document is the unedited author's version of a Submitted Work that was subsequently accepted for publication in Journal of Medicinal Chemistry , copyright © American Chemical Society after peer review. To access the final edited and published work, see http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs.jmedchem.6b00478We describe the synthesis of gramine derivatives and their pharmacological evaluation as multipotent drugs for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease. An innovative multitarget approach is presented, targeting both voltage-gated Ca2+ channels, classically studied for neurodegenerative diseases, and Ser/Thr phosphatases, which have been marginally aimed, even despite their key role in protein τ dephosphorylation. Twenty-five compounds were synthesized, and mostly their neuroprotective profile exceeded that offered by the head compound gramine. In general, these compounds reduced the entry of Ca2+ through VGCC, as measured by Fluo-4/AM and patch clamp techniques, and protected in Ca2+ overload-induced models of neurotoxicity, like glutamate or veratridine exposures. Furthermore, we hypothesize that these compounds decrease τ hyperphosphorylation based on the maintenance of the Ser/Thr phosphatase activity and their neuroprotection against the damage caused by okadaic acid. Hence, we propose this multitarget approach as a new and promising strategy for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseasesThis work was supported by the following grant: Proyectos de Investigación en Salud (PI13/00789, IS Carlos III). R.L.C is granted by Universidad Autónoma de Madri