Comparison of boreal ecosystem model sensitivity to variability in climate and forest site parameters

Ecosystem models are useful tools for evaluating environmental controls on carbon and water cycles under past or future conditions. In this paper we compare annual carbon and water fluxes from nine boreal spruce forest ecosystem models in a series of sensitivity simulations. For each comparison, a single climate driver or forest site parameter was altered in a separate sensitivity run. Driver and parameter changes were prescribed principally to be large enough to identify and isolate any major differences in model responses, while also remaining within the range of variability that the boreal forest biome may be exposed to over a time period of several decades. The models simulated plant production, autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration, and evapotranspiration (ET) for a black spruce site in the boreal forest of central Canada (56°N). Results revealed that there were common model responses in gross primary production, plant respiration, and ET fluxes to prescribed changes in air temperature or surface irradiance and to decreased precipitation amounts. The models were also similar in their responses to variations in canopy leaf area, leaf nitrogen content, and surface organic layer thickness. The models had different sensitivities to certain parameters, namely the net primary production response to increased CO2 levels, and the response of soil microbial respiration to precipitation inputs and soil wetness. These differences can be explained by the type (or absence) of photosynthesis-CO2 response curves in the models and by response algorithms of litter and humus decomposition to drying effects in organic soils of the boreal spruce ecosystem. Differences in the couplings of photosynthesis and soil respiration to nitrogen availability may also explain divergent model responses. Sensitivity comparisons imply that past conditions of the ecosystem represented in the models\u27 initial standing wood and soil carbon pools, including historical climate patterns and the time since the last major disturbance, can be as important as potential climatic changes to prediction of the annual ecosystem carbon balance in this boreal spruce forest

Boreal forest CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration predicted by nine ecosystem process models: Intermodel comparisons and relationships to field measurements

Nine ecosystem process models were used to predict CO2 and water vapor exchanges by a 150-year-old black spruce forest in central Canada during 1994–1996 to evaluate and improve the models. Three models had hourly time steps, five had daily time steps, and one had monthly time steps. Model input included site ecosystem characteristics and meteorology. Model predictions were compared to eddy covariance (EC) measurements of whole-ecosystem CO2exchange and evapotranspiration, to chamber measurements of nighttime moss-surface CO2release, and to ground-based estimates of annual gross primary production, net primary production, net ecosystem production (NEP), plant respiration, and decomposition. Model-model differences were apparent for all variables. Model-measurement agreement was good in some cases but poor in others. Modeled annual NEP ranged from −11 g C m−2 (weak CO2source) to 85 g C m−2 (moderate CO2 sink). The models generally predicted greater annual CO2sink activity than measured by EC, a discrepancy consistent with the fact that model parameterizations represented the more productive fraction of the EC tower “footprint.” At hourly to monthly timescales, predictions bracketed EC measurements so median predictions were similar to measurements, but there were quantitatively important model-measurement discrepancies found for all models at subannual timescales. For these models and input data, hourly time steps (and greater complexity) compared to daily time steps tended to improve model-measurement agreement for daily scale CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration (as judged by root-mean-squared error). Model time step and complexity played only small roles in monthly to annual predictions

Non-Gaussianity from violation of slow-roll in multiple inflation

Multiple inflation is a model based on N=1 supergravity wherein there are sudden changes in the mass of the inflaton because it couples to 'flat direction' scalar fields which undergo symmetry breaking phase transitions as the universe cools. The resulting brief violations of slow-roll evolution generate a non-gaussian signal which we find to be oscillatory and yielding f_NL ~ 5-20. This is potentially detectable by e.g. Planck but would require new bispectrum estimators to do so. We also derive a model-independent result relating the period of oscillations of a phase transition during inflation to the period of oscillations in the primordial curvature perturbation generated by the inflaton.Comment: 21 pages, 6 figures; Clarifying comments and references added; Accepted for publication in JCA

N-Terminal Pro–B-Type Natriuretic Peptide in the Emergency Department: The ICON-RELOADED Study

Background Contemporary reconsideration of diagnostic N-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) cutoffs for diagnosis of heart failure (HF) is needed. Objectives This study sought to evaluate the diagnostic performance of NT-proBNP for acute HF in patients with dyspnea in the emergency department (ED) setting. Methods Dyspneic patients presenting to 19 EDs in North America were enrolled and had blood drawn for subsequent NT-proBNP measurement. Primary endpoints were positive predictive values of age-stratified cutoffs (450, 900, and 1,800 pg/ml) for diagnosis of acute HF and negative predictive value of the rule-out cutoff to exclude acute HF. Secondary endpoints included sensitivity, specificity, and positive (+) and negative (−) likelihood ratios (LRs) for acute HF. Results Of 1,461 subjects, 277 (19%) were adjudicated as having acute HF. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for diagnosis of acute HF was 0.91 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.90 to 0.93; p < 0.001). Sensitivity for age stratified cutoffs of 450, 900, and 1,800 pg/ml was 85.7%, 79.3%, and 75.9%, respectively; specificity was 93.9%, 84.0%, and 75.0%, respectively. Positive predictive values were 53.6%, 58.4%, and 62.0%, respectively. Overall LR+ across age-dependent cutoffs was 5.99 (95% CI: 5.05 to 6.93); individual LR+ for age-dependent cutoffs was 14.08, 4.95, and 3.03, respectively. The sensitivity and negative predictive value for the rule-out cutoff of 300 pg/ml were 93.9% and 98.0%, respectively; LR− was 0.09 (95% CI: 0.05 to 0.13). Conclusions In acutely dyspneic patients seen in the ED setting, age-stratified NT-proBNP cutpoints may aid in the diagnosis of acute HF. An NT-proBNP <300 pg/ml strongly excludes the presence of acute HF

ROR-γ drives androgen receptor expression and represents a therapeutic target in castration-resistant prostate cancer.

The androgen receptor (AR) is overexpressed and hyperactivated in human castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). However, the determinants of AR overexpression in CRPC are poorly defined. Here we show that retinoic acid receptor-related orphan receptor γ (ROR-γ) is overexpressed and amplified in metastatic CRPC tumors, and that ROR-γ drives AR expression in the tumors. ROR-γ recruits nuclear receptor coactivator 1 and 3 (NCOA1 and NCOA3, also known as SRC-1 and SRC-3) to an AR-ROR response element (RORE) to stimulate AR gene transcription. ROR-γ antagonists suppress the expression of both AR and its variant AR-V7 in prostate cancer (PCa) cell lines and tumors. ROR-γ antagonists also markedly diminish genome-wide AR binding, H3K27ac abundance and expression of the AR target gene network. Finally, ROR-γ antagonists suppressed tumor growth in multiple AR-expressing, but not AR-negative, xenograft PCa models, and they effectively sensitized CRPC tumors to enzalutamide, without overt toxicity, in mice. Taken together, these results establish ROR-γ as a key player in CRPC by acting upstream of AR and as a potential therapeutic target for advanced PCa

BINGO: A code for the efficient computation of the scalar bi-spectrum

We present a new and accurate Fortran code, the BI-spectra and Non-Gaussianity Operator (BINGO), for the efficient numerical computation of the scalar bi-spectrum and the non-Gaussianity parameter f_{NL} in single field inflationary models involving the canonical scalar field. The code can calculate all the different contributions to the bi-spectrum and the parameter f_{NL} for an arbitrary triangular configuration of the wavevectors. Focusing firstly on the equilateral limit, we illustrate the accuracy of BINGO by comparing the results from the code with the spectral dependence of the bi-spectrum expected in power law inflation. Then, considering an arbitrary triangular configuration, we contrast the numerical results with the analytical expression available in the slow roll limit, for, say, the case of the conventional quadratic potential. Considering a non-trivial scenario involving deviations from slow roll, we compare the results from the code with the analytical results that have recently been obtained in the case of the Starobinsky model in the equilateral limit. As an immediate application, we utilize BINGO to examine of the power of the non-Gaussianity parameter f_{NL} to discriminate between various inflationary models that admit departures from slow roll and lead to similar features in the scalar power spectrum. We close with a summary and discussion on the implications of the results we obtain.Comment: v1: 5 pages, 5 figures; v2: 35 pages, 11 figures, title changed, extensively revised; v3: 36 pages, 11 figures, to appear in JCAP. The BINGO code is available online at http://www.physics.iitm.ac.in/~sriram/bingo/bingo.htm

Fields Annihilation and Particles Creation in DBI inflation

We consider a model of DBI inflation where two stacks of mobile branes are moving ultra relativistically in a warped throat. The stack closer to the tip of the throat is annihilated with the background anti-branes while inflation proceeds by the second stack. The effects of branes annihilation and particles creation during DBI inflation on the curvature perturbations power spectrum and the scalar spectral index are studied. We show that for super-horizon scales, modes which are outside the sound horizon at the time of branes collision, the spectral index has a shift to blue spectrum compared to the standard DBI inflation. For small scales the power spectrum approaches to its background DBI inflation value with the decaying superimposed oscillatory modulations.Comment: First revision: minor changes, the background spectral index is corrected, new references are added. Second revision: minor changes, new references are added, accepted for publication in JCA

Running Spectral Index from Inflation with Modulations

We argue that a large negative running spectral index, if confirmed, might suggest that there are abundant structures in the inflaton potential, which result in a fairly large (both positive and negative) running of the spectral index at all scales. It is shown that the center value of the running spectral index suggested by the recent CMB data can be easily explained by an inflaton potential with superimposed periodic oscillations. In contrast to cases with constant running, the perturbation spectrum is enhanced at small scales, due to the repeated modulations. We mention that such features at small scales may be seen by 21 cm observations in the future.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures, v2: published in JCA

Celluphot: hybrid cellulose : bismuth oxybromide membrane for pollutant removal

The simultaneous removal of organic and inorganic pollutants from wastewater is a complex challenge and requires usually several sequential processes. Here, we demonstrate the fabrication of a hybrid material that can fulfill both tasks: i) the adsorption of metal ions due to the negative surface charge, and ii) photocatalytic decomposition of organic compounds. The bio-inorganic hybrid membrane consists of cellulose fibers to ensure mechanical stability and of Bi4O5Br2/BiOBr nanosheets. The composite is synthesized at low temperature of 115 °C directly on the cellulose membrane (CM) in order to maintain the carboxylic and hydroxyl groups on the surface that are responsible for the adsorption of metal ions. The composite can adsorb both Co(II) and Ni(II) ions and the kinetic study con- firmed a good agreement of experimental data with the pseudo-second-order equation kinetic model. CM/Bi4O5Br2/BiOBrshowed higher affinity to Co(II) ions than to Ni(II) ions from diluted aqueous solutions. The bio-inorganic composite demonstrates a synergistic effect in the photocatalytic degradation of rhodamine B by exceeding the removal efficiency of single components. The fabrication of the biologic-inorganic interface was confirmed by various analytical techniques including SEM, STEM EDX mapping, XRD, and XPS. The presented approach for controlled formation of the bio-inorganic interface between natural material (cellulose) and nanoscopic inorganic materials of tailored morphology (Bi-O-Br system) enables the significant enhancement of materials functionality