A Simple Test of Momentum in Foreign Exchange Markets

This study proposes a new method for testing for the presence of momentum in nominal exchange rates, using a probabilistic approach. We illustrate our methodology estimating a binary response model using information on local currency / US dollar exchange rates of eight emerging economies. After controlling for important variables affecting the behavior of exchange rates in the short-run, we show evidence of exchange rate inertia; in other words, we find that exchange rate momentum is a common feature in this group of emerging economies, and thus foreign exchange traders participating in these markets are able to make excess returns by following technical analysis strategies. We find that the presence of momentum is asymmetric, being stronger in moments of currency depreciation than of appreciation. This behavior may be associated with central bank intervention.Momentum, foreign exchange markets, hazard duration analysis, emerging economies. Classification JEL: G14, G15, C41.

Determinantes de la fusiones y adquisiciones en el sistema financiero colombiano. 1990-2007.

Para el caso colombiano se han analizado de manera amplia los efectos de la quiebra y la fusión de las instituciones financieras; sin embargo, no se contaba con un estudio microeconometrico para determinar los determinantes de este tipo de operaciones. Este documento se concentra en determinar cuáles son las variables claves que incentivan la participación de las instituciones financieras en operaciones de integración, mediante la estimación de modelos de duración. Se encuentra que el buen desempeño de las armas reduce la probabilidad de fusión o adquisición de instituciones financieras y que variables macroeconómicas como el crecimiento y la concentración del mercado son  determinantes de estas

OPTIMIZATION BASED CONTROL OF A DIRECT ROTARY DRYER

Indexación: Web of Science; ScieloRESUMEN: Este trabajo presenta el control de un secador rotatorio directo basado en optimización no lineal. Esta metodología permite auto-sintonizar dinámicamente un controlador PI o PID, mejorando claramente el control del proceso respecto de la sintonización clásica. El control del proceso se realiza a través de simulación computacional vía Matlab y su verificación a través de un proceso piloto, lo que permite apreciar la potencialidad de la sintonía dinámica que se propone. Los resultados, tiempo de respuesta y dinámica de control posibilitan que investigación futura pueda escalar esta propuesta desde el laboratorio a procesos industriales.ABSTRACT: This paper presents the control of a direct rotary dryer based on nonlinear optimization. This methodology allows the dynamic self-tuning of PI or PID controller, clearly improving process control over the classic tuning approach. Process control is done through Matlab via computer simulation and verification through a pilot process, which allows us to appreciate the potential of the proposed dynamic tuning. The results, response time and dynamic control allow us to scale future research from the laboratory (pilot scale) to industrial processes.http://ref.scielo.org/swb3h

Algoritmo genético aplicado a la programación en talleres de maquinado

En este trabajo se utiliza la metaheurística nombrada algoritmo genético, para dos variantes típicas de problemas de planificación presentes en un taller de maquinado de piezas: las variantes flujo general y flujo regular, y se ha seleccionado la minimización del tiempo de finalización de todos los trabajos o camino máximo, como objetivo a optimizar en un plan de trabajo. Este problema es considerado de difícil solución y es típico de la optimización combinatoria. Los resultados demuestran la calidad de las soluciones encontradas en correspondencia con el tiempo de cómputo empleado, al ser comparados con problemas clásicos reportados por otros autores. La representación propuesta de cada cromosoma genera el universo completo de soluciones factibles, donde es posible encontrar valores óptimos globales de solución y cumple con las restricciones del problema

Influence of Gender in Advanced Heart Failure Therapies and Outcome Following Transplantation

Biological differences between males and females change the course of different diseases and affect therapeutic measures' responses. Heart failure is not an exception to these differences. Women account for a minority of patients on the waiting list for heart transplantation or other advanced heart failure therapies. The reason for this under-representation is unknown. Men have a worse cardiovascular risk profile and suffer more often from ischemic heart disease. Conversely, transplanted women are younger and more frequently have non-ischemic cardiac disorders. Women's poorer survival on the waiting list for heart transplantation has been previously described, but this trend has been corrected in recent years. The use of ventricular assist devices in women is progressively increasing, with comparable results than in men. The indication rate for a heart transplant in women (number of women on the waiting list for millions of habitants) has remained unchanged over the past 25 years. Long-term results of heart transplants are equal for both men and women. We have analyzed the data of a national registry of heart transplant patients to look for possible future directions for a more in-depth study of sex differences in this area. We have analyzed 1-year outcomes of heart transplant recipients. We found similar results in men and women and no sex-related interactions with any of the factors related to survival or differences in death causes between men and women. We should keep trying to approach sex differences in prospective studies to confirm if they deserve a different approach, which is not supported by current evidence

Inappropriate antibiotic use in the COVID-19 era: Factors associated with inappropriate prescribing and secondary complications. Analysis of the registry SEMI-COVID

Background: Most patients with COVID-19 receive antibiotics despite the fact that bacterial co-infections are rare. This can lead to increased complications, including antibacterial resistance. We aim to analyze risk factors for inappropriate antibiotic prescription in these patients and describe possible complications arising from their use. Methods: The SEMI-COVID-19 Registry is a multicenter, retrospective patient cohort. Patients with antibiotic were divided into two groups according to appropriate or inappropriate prescription, depending on whether the patient fulfill any criteria for its use. Comparison was made by means of multilevel logistic regression analysis. Possible complications of antibiotic use were also identified. Results: Out of 13,932 patients, 3047 (21.6%) were prescribed no antibiotics, 6116 (43.9%) were appropriately prescribed antibiotics, and 4769 (34.2%) were inappropriately prescribed antibiotics. The following were independent factors of inappropriate prescription: February-March 2020 admission (OR 1.54, 95%CI 1.18-2.00), age (OR 0.98, 95%CI 0.97-0.99), absence of comorbidity (OR 1.43, 95%CI 1.05-1.94), dry cough (OR 2.51, 95%CI 1.94-3.26), fever (OR 1.33, 95%CI 1.13-1.56), dyspnea (OR 1.31, 95%CI 1.04-1.69), flu-like symptoms (OR 2.70, 95%CI 1.75-4.17), and elevated C-reactive protein levels (OR 1.01 for each mg/L increase, 95% CI 1.00-1.01). Adverse drug reactions were more frequent in patients who received ANTIBIOTIC (4.9% vs 2.7%, p < .001). Conclusion: The inappropriate use of antibiotics was very frequent in COVID-19 patients and entailed an increased risk of adverse reactions. It is crucial to define criteria for their use in these patients. Knowledge of the factors associated with inappropriate prescribing can be helpful

Usefulness of bone turnover markers as predictors of mortality risk, disease progression and skeletal-related events appearance in patients with prostate cancer with bone metastases following treatment with zoledronic acid: TUGAMO study

Owing to the limited validity of clinical data on the treatment of prostate cancer (PCa) and bone metastases, biochemical markers are a promising tool for predicting survival, disease progression and skeletal-related events (SREs) in these patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive capacity of biochemical markers of bone turnover for mortality risk, disease progression and SREs in patients with PCa and bone metastases undergoing treatment with zoledronic acid (ZA). Methods: This was an observational, prospective and multicenter study in which ninety-eight patients were included. Patients were treated with ZA (4mg every 4 weeks for 18 months). Data were collected at baseline and 3, 6, 9, 12, 15 and 18 months after the beginning of treatment. Serum levels of bone alkaline phosphtase (BALP), aminoterminal propeptide of procollagen type I (P1NP) and beta-isomer of carboxiterminal telopeptide of collagen I (b-CTX) were analysed at all points in the study. Data on disease progression, SREs development and survival were recorded. Results: Cox regression models with clinical data and bone markers showed that the levels of the three markers studied were predictive of survival time, with b-CTX being especially powerful, in which a lack of normalisation in visit 1 (3 months after the beginning of treatment) showed a 6.3-times more risk for death than in normalised patients. Levels of these markers were also predictive for SREs, although in this case BALP and P1NP proved to be better predictors. We did not find any relationship between bone markers and disease progression. Conclusion: In patients with PCa and bone metastases treated with ZA, b-CTX and P1NP can be considered suitable predictors for mortality risk, while BALP and P1NP are appropriate for SREs. The levels of these biomarkers 3 months after the beginning of treatment are especially importantThis study was supported by Novartis Oncology Spai

Frequency and Characteristics of familial melanoma in Spain: the FAM-GEM-1 Study.

Familial history of melanoma is a well-known risk factor for the disease, and 7% melanoma patients were reported to have a family history of melanoma. Data relating to the frequency and clinical and pathological characteristics of both familial and non-familial melanoma in Spain have been published, but these only include patients from specific areas of Spain and do not represent the data for the whole of Spain. PATIENTS AND METHODS: An observational study conducted by the Spanish Group of Melanoma (GEM) analyzed the family history of patients diagnosed with melanoma between 2011 and 2013 in the dermatology and oncology departments. RESULTS: In all, 1047 patients were analyzed, and 69 (6.6%) fulfilled criteria for classical familial melanoma (two or more first-degree relatives diagnosed with melanoma). Taking into account other risk factors for familial melanoma, such as multiple melanoma, pancreatic cancer in the family or second-degree relatives with melanoma, the number of patients fulfilling the criteria increased to 165 (15.8%). Using a univariate analysis, we determined that a Breslow index of less than 1 mm, negative mitosis, multiple melanoma, and a history of sunburns in childhood were more frequent in familial melanoma patients, but a multivariate analysis revealed no differences in any pathological or clinical factor between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Similar to that observed in other countries, familial melanoma accounts for 6.6% of melanoma diagnoses in Spain. Although no differences in the multivariate analysis were found, some better prognosis factors, such as Breslow index, seem more frequent in familial melanoma, which reflect a better early detection marker and/or a different biological behavior