Estimando Probabilidades de Ocorrência de Crises Cambiais no Brasil

The main objective of this paper is to find an alternative way of estimation of the probabilities of devalutation instead of the traditional method Logit. The methodology is based on Olivier Jeanne (1997) and several articles of Svensson and Rose. Logit models have certain degree of subjectivity on the determination of the periods of crisis and periods of non-crisis. Jeanne’s method tries to tackle out this problem and it seems appropriate to Brazilian economy. After estimating the probabilities of devaluation in Brazilian economy in the period july/94-january/99, there is an investigation of the variables that may influence that probability. Some variables that are described in the first and in the second generation models of balance of payments crisis are considered statistically significants to determine the probability of devaluation.Balance of Payments Crisis, Causes of Speculative Attacks, Brazilian Economy in the 90’s, Exchange Rate Devaluation, Drift adjustment method.

A Disease Register for ME/CFS: Report of a Pilot Study.

BACKGROUND: The ME/CFS Disease Register is one of six subprojects within the National ME/CFS Observatory, a research programme funded by the Big Lottery Fund and sponsored by Action for ME. A pilot study in East Anglia, East Yorkshire, and London aimed to address the problem of identifying representative groups of subjects for research, in order to be able to draw conclusions applicable to the whole ME/CFS population.While not aiming for comprehensive population coverage, this pilot register sought to recruit participants with ME/CFS in an unbiased way from a large population base. Those recruited are constituting a cohort for long-term follow-up to shed light on prognosis, and a sampling frame for other studies. FINDINGS: Patients with unidentified chronic fatigue were identified in GP databases using a READ-code based algorithm, and conformity to certain case definitions for ME/CFS determined. 29 practices, covering a population aged 18 to 64 of 143,153, participated.510 patients with unexplained chronic fatigue were identified. 265 of these conformed to one or more case definitions. 216 were invited to join the register; 160 agreed. 96.9% of participants conformed to the CDC 1994 (Fukuda) definition; the Canadian definition defined more precisely a subset of these. The addition of an epidemiological case definition increased case ascertainment by approximately 4%. A small-scale study in a specialist referral service in East Anglia was also undertaken.There was little difference in pattern of conformity to case definitions, age or sex among disease register participants compared with subjects in a parallel epidemiological study who declined to participate.One-year follow-up of 50 subjects showed little change in pain or fatigue scores. There were some changes in conformity to case definitions. CONCLUSIONS: Objective evaluation indicated that the aim of recruiting participants with ME/CFS to a Disease Register had been fulfilled, and confirmed the feasibility of our approach to case identification, data processing, transmission, storage, and analysis. Future developments should include expansion of the ME/CFS Register and its linkage to a tissue sample bank and post mortem tissue archive, to facilitate support for further research studies

Uso do Controle Gerencial e Decisões em Organizações de Saúde Brasileiras: um Estudo Exploratório

This article analyzes the interplay of the use of management control systems, organizational learning, management decisions and the performance of health organizations. In the quantitative step, we collected data on 48 Brazilian hospitals and other health facilities by means of a survey. Principal component analysis identified three dimensions of management decisions (financial, costs and client relationship) and two performance dimensions (economic and non-monetary). Structural equation modeling confirmed the following hypotheses: (i) interactive use of the management control system is positively associated with organizational learning (OL); (ii) OL is positively associated with financial decisions and cost and process decisions; (iii) cost and process decisions and decisions related to clients are positively associated with economic performance; and (iv) cost and process decisions are also positively associated with non-monetary performance. In the qualitative step, we interviewed four key informants to discuss and interpret the results.Nesta pesquisa, foram analisados os relacionamentos entre o uso do sistema de controle gerencial, a aprendizagem organizacional, as decisões gerenciais e o desempenho em organizações hospitalares. Na etapa quantitativa, foram coletados dados de 48 hospitais brasileiros por meio de um survey. A análise de componentes principais identificou três dimensões de decisões gerenciais (financeiras, custos e processos e relacionamento com clientes) e duas dimensões de desempenho (econômico e não monetário). A modelagem de equações estruturais confirmou as seguintes hipóteses: (i) o uso interativo está associado positivamente com a aprendizagem organizacional (AO); (ii) a AO está associada positivamente com decisões financeiras e com decisões de custos e processos; (iii) as decisões de custos e processos e as decisões relacionadas aos clientes estão associadas positivamente com desempenho econômico; e (iv) as decisões de custos e processos também estão associadas positivamente com desempenho não monetário. Na etapa qualitativa, foram entrevistados quatro informantes-chave, com o objetivo de discutir e de interpretar os resultados

Contingent Valuation Method and the beta model: an accounting economic vision for environmental damage in Atlântico Sul Shipyard

O objetivo deste trabalho é aplicar o modelo beta como forma alternativa ao Método de Valoração, a fim de estimar a Disposição a Pagar (Willingness to Pay - WTP, na sigla em inglês) do bem ambiental de modo que o Tribunal de Contas do Estado de Pernambuco (TCE/PE) possa fiscalizar o Estaleiro Atlântico Sul (EAS) como uma externalidade ambiental negativa, discutido neste trabalho a partir de uma perspectiva contábil. A metodologia é exploratória, e o modelo de regressão beta foi utilizado na valoração contingente para estimar o bem ambiental. Os resultados permitiram estimar o valor do manguezal de Ipojuca em US$134.079.793,50 e o valor do dano ambiental causado pelo estaleiro ao bem público foi avaliada em US$ 61.378.155,37. Este último valor é objeto de interesse para o órgão fiscalizador. No entanto, o valor estimado final do manguezal de Ipojuca fomenta uma discussão sobre as implicações do ponto de vista contábil, como a atribuição de valor monetário a um bem público que não possui valor financeiro, problemas de conceituação e valoração de bens públicos para patrimônio governamental. Conclui-se que o modelo de regressão beta para estimar a WTP para valoração contingente servirá como contribuição para a pesquisa sobre técnicas de mensuração contábil para bens públicos.The objective of this paper is to apply the beta model as an alternative to the Valuation Method in order to estimate the environmental asset Willingness to Pay (WTP) so that the Tribunal de Contas do Estado de Pernambuco (TCE/PE) can supervise the Atlântico Sul Shipyard (ASS) as a negative environmental externality, which is discussed here from an accounting perspective. Our methodology is exploratory, and the beta regression model was used in the contingent valuation to estimate the environmental asset. The results allowed estimating the value of the Ipojuca mangrove at US$134,079,793.50, and the value of the environmental damage caused by the shipyard to the public asset was valued at US$ 61,378,155.37. This latter value is object of interest to the inspection body. However, the final estimated value of the Ipojuca mangrove prompts a discussion about the implications from an accounting point of view, such as the attribution of monetary value to a public asset that does not have a financial value, problems regarding the conceptualization and valuation of public assets for governmental patrimony. It is concluded that the beta regression model to estimate the WTP for contingent valuation will serve as a contribution to the research on accounting measurement techniques for public assets

PHYSICOCHEMICAL PROPERTIES OF STARCH FROM AVOCADO SEED (PERSEA AMERICANA MILL)

The extraction and characterization of avocado starch isolated from seeds (Persea americana Mill) were studied. The starch was extracted by steeping, wet grinding and sedimentation process and calculated its yield. Isolated starch was then characterized for chemical composition, morphology and granules size distribution, X-ray diffraction an mid-infrared spectra, swelling powder and solubility, pasting and thermal properties and clarity and syneresis behavior. The starch yield was 42.2%. The results showed starch granules were predominantly ellipsoidal with an average granule size of 17.83 μm. Exhibited B-type X-ray diffraction pattern with 25.7% of crystallinity, and apparent amylose content of 21.5% with similar mid-infrared spectra to other starches. Onset and peak gelatinization temperatures were 67.6 and 76.0 °C, respectively, and gelatinization enthalpy was 14.9 J/g. Starch suspensions showed peak viscosity at 4421 cP and high retrogradation tendency, which was evidenced by opaque gels and syneresis. 

EFFECTS OF SURGICAL STRESS ON THE SECRETION OF LUTEINIZING HORMONE, TESTOSTERONE AND CORTISOL IN THE DOMESTIC CAT (Felis catus)

A influência do estresse sobre as diversas funções fisiológicas tem sido por longo tempo estudada. Observações de que situações de estresse são geralmente acompanhadas de alterações nas atividades reprodutivas são também conhecidas. Assim, utilizaram-se 21 gatos (machos,adultos) em procedimento cirúrgico (24, 48 e 72 h, após canulação do vaso jugular direito), coletando-se sangue para dosagem, via radioimunoensaio, dos hormônios cortisol, testosterona e hormônio luteinizante (LH). Os resultados obtidos demonstraram que, para o gato doméstico, os níveis séricos dos hormônios estudados apresentaram uma elevação acentuada em suas concentrações, após o ato cirúrgico, e que diminuía gradativamente, voltando aos valores basais ao final de 48 h (2 ng/ml para o cortisol, 1ng/ml para testosteona, e 3,5 ng/ml para LH), aproximadamente, regularizando-se a seguir. Esses resultados demonstram que, após procedimento cirúrgico, os felinos têm suas concentrações especialmente de cortisol aumentadas significativamente. O intervalo de pelo menos três dias deve ser aguardado antes que se proceda a quaisquer outros processos de manipulação que envolvam o sistema endócrino dessa espécie animal, já que durante esse período as concentrações de cortisol, bem como de outros hormônios, estão alteradas. PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Cortisol, estresse, gato, LH, testosterona

Phytotechnical parameters and yield of watermelon plants under different irrigation and nitrogen levels

Water and nitrogen availability are fundamental for obtaining a high yield of the watermelon plant. However, the appropriate levels of irrigation and nitrogen to be applied according to specific cultivation conditions should be previously determined. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the effects of irrigation and nitrogen levels in fertigation on the phytotechnical parameters and yield of the Top Gun hybrid watermelon plant. The experiment was conducted at São Luiz Ranch, in Bom Jesus (PI), from August 4 to October 15, 2015. The blocks in strips experimental design was used with four repetitions, and the treatments consisted of five irrigation depths (114.17, 156.86, 221.16, 268.87, and 317.09 mm) and five doses of nitrogen in fertigation (0, 50, 100, 150, and 200 kg ha-1). The growth rate of the main and primary branches, leaf area, specific leaf area, stem diameter, dry mass of the aerial part, number of fruits, and commercial production per plant were evaluated. Both hydric and nutritional stress caused decreased growth rates, leaf areas, and specific leaf areas, and the highest growth expressions were found with the combination of a 317.09 mm irrigation depth and 200 kg ha-1 nitrogen. The irrigation depths did not influence the diameter of the stem nor the accumulation of dry mass. Nitrogen doses did not influence the number of fruits and production. The 247.95 mm irrigation depth promoted the highest commercial fruit production of the watermelon plant.Water and nitrogen availability are fundamental for obtaining a high yield of the watermelon plant. However, the appropriate levels of irrigation and nitrogen to be applied according to specific cultivation conditions should be previously determined. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the effects of irrigation and nitrogen levels in fertigation on the phytotechnical parameters and yield of the Top Gun hybrid watermelon plant. The experiment was conducted at São Luiz Ranch, in Bom Jesus (PI), from August 4 to October 15, 2015. The blocks in strips experimental design was used with four repetitions, and the treatments consisted of five irrigation depths (114.17, 156.86, 221.16, 268.87, and 317.09 mm) and five doses of nitrogen in fertigation (0, 50, 100, 150, and 200 kg ha-1). The growth rate of the main and primary branches, leaf area, specific leaf area, stem diameter, dry mass of the aerial part, number of fruits, and commercial production per plant were evaluated. Both hydric and nutritional stress caused decreased growth rates, leaf areas, and specific leaf areas, and the highest growth expressions were found with the combination of a 317.09 mm irrigation depth and 200 kg ha-1 nitrogen. The irrigation depths did not influence the diameter of the stem nor the accumulation of dry mass. Nitrogen doses did not influence the number of fruits and production. The 247.95 mm irrigation depth promoted the highest commercial fruit production of the watermelon plant

Psychophysical Evaluation of Achromatic and Chromatic Vision of Workers Chronically Exposed to Organic Solvents

The purpose of this paper was to evaluate achromatic and chromatic vision of workers chronically exposed to organic solvents through psychophysical methods. Thirty-one gas station workers (31.5 ± 8.4 years old) were evaluated. Psychophysical tests were achromatic tests (Snellen chart, spatial and temporal contrast sensitivity, and visual perimetry) and chromatic tests (Ishihara's test, color discrimination ellipses, and Farnsworth-Munsell 100 hue test—FM100). Spatial contrast sensitivities of exposed workers were lower than the control at spatial frequencies of 20 and 30 cpd whilst the temporal contrast sensitivity was preserved. Visual field losses were found in 10–30 degrees of eccentricity in the solvent exposed workers. The exposed workers group had higher error values of FM100 and wider color discrimination ellipses area compared to the controls. Workers occupationally exposed to organic solvents had abnormal visual functions, mainly color vision losses and visual field constriction

Pesquisa Quantitativa em Finanças: Uma Análise das Técnicas Estatísticas Utilizadas por Artigos Científicos Publicados em Periódicos Qualificados no Triênio 2007-2009

This study aimed to examine whether there are differences, in terms of sophistication and accuracy, in statistical techniques used by finance articles published in journals classified by CAPES, from 2007 to 2009. The sample consisted of 100 articles from 40 journals, national and international, inserted between strata A1 and B5. We used descriptive statistics in order to characterize the sample, and the chi-square test of independence, by means of which was examined the degree of independence between variables. The results suggest that the higher the classification level of the stratum, the greater the sophistication of statistical techniques employed in the articles. However, regarding the accuracy in applying the techniques, there were no significant differences between one stratum and another. Most of the articles analyzed (57%) not validated or partially validated the assumptions required for their use. Thus, it was realized that there was not proper concern with this aspect, even in well qualified strata. We emphasize that the results are restricted to the sample used. We recommend that future studies use large samples, including other means of publication, like events, both in finance as in other areas of knowledge.Este trabalho teve como objetivo analisar se há diferenças, em termos de sofisticação e rigor, nas técnicas estatísticas utilizadas por artigos de finanças, publicados em periódicos qualificados pela CAPES, no triênio 2007-2009. A amostra foi constituída por 100 artigos de 40 periódicos, nacionais e internacionais, inseridos entre os estratos A1 e B5. Foram utilizadas estatísticas descritivas, a fim de caracterizar a amostra, e o teste qui-quadrado de independência, por meio do qual se analisou o grau de independência entre as variáveis estudadas. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que, quanto maior o nível de classificação do estrato, maior é a sofisticação das técnicas estatísticas empregadas nos artigos. Todavia, com relação ao rigor na aplicação das técnicas, verificou-se não haver diferenças significativas entre um estrato e outro. A maioria dos artigos analisados (57%) não validou ou validou parcialmente os pressupostos necessários para sua utilização. Dessa forma, percebeu-se que não houve a devida preocupação com esse aspecto, inclusive nos estratos mais bem qualificados. Ressalta-se que os resultados obtidos ficam restritos à amostra utilizada. Recomenda-se que estudos futuros utilizem amostras superiores, incluindo outros veículos de publicação, como eventos, tanto na área de finanças como em outras áreas do conhecimento.