A probabilistic model for explaining the points achieved by a team in football competition. Forecasting and regression with applications to the Spanish competition

In the last decades, a lot of research papers applying statistical methods for analysing sports data have been published. Football, also called soccer, is one of the most popular sports all over the world organised in national championships in a round robin format in which the team reaching the most points at the end of the tournament wins the competition. The aim of this work is to develop a suitable probability model for studying the points achieved by a team in a football match. For this purpose, we built a discrete probability distribution taking values, zero for losing, one for a draw and three for a victory. We test its performance using data from the Spanish Football League (First division) during the 2013-14 season. Furthermore, the model provides an attractive framework for predicting points and incorporating covariates in order to study the factors affecting the points achieved by the teams.Peer Reviewe

An exploration of the potential benefits of integrated pest management systems and the use of insect resistant potatoes to control the Guatemalan Tuber Moth (Tecia solanivora Povolny) in Ventaquemada, Colombia:

"CORPOICA and IFPRI implemented a research project in Ventaquemada, Colombia. The project's goal was to asses the benefits of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) practices and the potential of Genetically Modified insect resistant (Bt) potatoes to manage damage caused by the Guatemalan Tuber Moth (Tecia solanivora Povolny). The Guatemalan Tuber Moth is particularly destructive because field spraying on the adult stage is ineffective and there exists damage specificity to the tubers. Excessive pesticide sprays have resulted in resistance to several insecticides. Insect resistant (Bt) potatoes has been shown an effective means to control other members of the Tuber Moth complex. Thus a Bt potato may play a role in managing Tecia in Colombia. This is an ex ante study as there are no Bt potatoes currently under field conditions in Colombia.. To examine this issue, we conducted a survey in 2003 of 78 farmers in the region to estimate a baseline of traditionally and IPM managed systems. The first year survey was supplemented with focus groups to examine damage and production costs in 2003 and 2004. We also implemented activities such as field verification of IPM practices and damage, a Farmer Field School and other participatory methods. Our analysis uses methods such partial budgeting analysis, a production function input abatement expectations model, and an economic surplus model augmented by stochastic simulations. Results of the analysis presented here outlines estimated losses under field and storage conditions, likely range of benefits accrued by farmers in the region due to the potential adoption of a portfolio of IPM management practices and Bt potatoes. Results from the survey conducted in 2003 show that producers in the area have endured significant field and storage losses within the previous 10 years, but were low in that particular year. Initial results where confirmed by results of focus groups in 2003 and 2004 which show very low field and storage damage. Sustained precipitation explains the observed low levels of damage by the Tuber Moth. Low levels of damage induced zero (or even negative) cost differences between conventional and IPM management. In contrast, using the proposed expectation model to estimate expected payoffs to IPM investments show that even with low levels of damage it still pays for producers to invest in IPM practices. The economic surplus estimates show that even considering variability of field and storage losses, as well as of other critical parameters, the use of Bt potatoes in Colombia creates a positive return to investment to Bt potato research, assuming that damage is present under field conditions. We finalize by discussing some of the institutional and strategic considerations for the potential use of Bt potatoes in the country." Authors' abstractPotatoes Economic aspects, Genetically modified crops, Economic surplus model, Risk, Research and development, Bt-potatoes,

La disciplina entre las disposiciones legales y los actores escolares

Este artículo presenta una descripción del funcionamiento de la disciplina escolar en una institución educativa de secundaria en Colombia. Tiene como objetivo explicar el origen del conflicto disciplinario, las situaciones que lo generan, la forma como la institución trata de lograr y mantener la disciplina, las explicaciones que cada uno de los actores da a las situaciones conflictivas y la manera como son vividas por ellos. El diseño metodológico de la investigación combinó una encuesta, entrevistas y el análisis de documentos de la institución educativa. El análisis de los datos se hace a la luz de planteamientos sociológicos que reconocen la enorme importancia que ejercen las estructuras sociales sobre la forma de pensar y actuar de los individuos, pero también resaltan la gran capacidad de los actores sociales para amoldarse a dichas estructuras y a través de sus ideas y acciones darle una dinámica propia al tipo de relaciones que establecen entre individuos en sus entornos de vida más inmediatos. Se pudo concluir que sobre la disciplina escolar no hay unidad de criterio entre los docentes, los directivos y los estudiantes, ni en su definición, ni en su importancia, ni en los medios para conseguirla; dichas diferencias producen tensiones y desacuerdos entre los miembros de la comunidad educativa

Moran's genetics model via electric networks

AbstractUsing the electric approach, we derive exact and asymptotic closed form formulas for hitting times in symmetric cases of the Moran's genetics model

Balanced Scorecard dos centros de saúde familiar do departamento de saúde municipal da comunidade de Puerto Montt, Chile

The use of Balance Scorecards (bsc) has gradually increased in the Chilean health sector. Since 2006, it has been used by various Municipal Health Departments and Family Health Centers (Cesfam) attached to such departments. The bsc is a management model that translates strategy into related objectives that are measured by indicators and linked to certain action plans that allow to adjust the behavior  of the members of an organization. The usefulness of bsc does not depend on the type of company but on the problems it faces. In fact, it has been implemented in both small and large companies and for-profit and non-profit organizations, as shown in this case. This study discusses the development of Cesfam strategic planning in the commune of Puerto Montt, Chile, using the Balance Scorecard (BSC). The implementation of this model involved the work and commitment of each Cesfam’s managing team in the strategic planning process and the determination of all components in the Balance Scorecard.El uso del cuadro de mando integral (CMI) ha aumentado de manera creciente en el sector salud en Chile. A partir del 2006, comenzaron a emplearlo diversos Departamentos de Salud Municipales y Centros de Salud Familiar (Cesfam) dependientes de esos departamentos. El CMI es un modelo de gestión que traduce la estrategia en objetivos relacionados, medidos a través de indicadores, y ligados a unos planes de acción que permiten alinear el comportamiento de los miembros de la organización. La utilidad del CMI no depende del tipo de empresa sino de los problemas que enfrenta, y de hecho se ha implementado en grandes y pequeñas empresas, y en organizaciones con y sin ánimo de lucro, tal como se demuestra en este caso. Se presenta en este estudio el desarrollo de la planificación estratégica de los Cesfam de la comuna de Puerto Montt, Chile, empleando el cuadro de mando integral (CMI) o Balanced Scorecard (BSC). La implementación del modelo implicó el trabajo y compromiso de los equipos gestores de cada uno de los Cesfam en el proceso de planificación estratégica y la definición de la totalidad de los componentes del cuadro de mando.O uso do Balanced Scorecard (BSC) vem aumentando de maneira crescente no setor de saude no Chile. A partir de 2006, diversos Departamentos de Saude Municipais e Centros de Saude Familiar (Cesfam) dependentes desses departamentos comecaram a utiliza-lo.O BSC e um modelo de gestao que traduz a estrategia em objetivos relacionados, medidos por meio de indicadores e ligados a planos de acao que permitem alinhar o comportamento dos membros da organizacao. A utilidade do BSC nao depende do tipo de empresa, mas sim dos problemas que enfrenta e, de fato, vem sendo implantado em grandes e pequenas empresas, alem de organizacoes com ou sem fins lucrativos, tal como se demonstra neste caso.Apresenta-se, neste estudo, o desenvolvimento do planejamento estrategico dos Cesfam da comunidade de Puerto Montt (Chile) utilizando o BSC.A implantacao do modelo implicou o trabalho e o compromisso das equipes gestoras de cada um dos Cesfam no processo de planejamento estrategico e na definicao da totalidade dos componentes do BSC

An edeine resistant mRNA-dependent protein synthesis system from a Saccharomyces cerevisiae mutant

AbstractA cell-free protein synthesizing system from a mutant of Saccharomyces cerevisiae translated exogenous mRNA in the presence of 2μM edeine, while a similar system from wild-type strain was completely inhibited by the drug. The mutant ribosomes showed an affinity for [125I]edeine comparable to the wild-type ribosomes, thereby suggesting that these macromolecules alone were not responsible for the edeine-resistant capacity of the mutant

Performance measures in dose-finding experiments

In the first phase of pharmaceutical development, and assuming that the probability of positive response increases with dose, the main statistical goal is to estimate a percentile of the dose–response function for a given target Г. We compare the Maximum Likelihood and centred isotonic regression estimators of the target dose and we discuss several performance criteria to assess inferential precision, the amount of toxicity exposure and the trade-off between them for a set of some exemplary adaptive designs. We compare these designs using graphical tools. Several scenarios are considered using simulation, including the use of several start-up rules, the change of slope of the dose-toxicity function at the target dose and also different theoretical models, as logistic, normal or skew-normal distribution functions.Fernando Plo and Jose Moler acknowledge the financial support received from the projects Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MTM2014‐53340‐P) and Secretaría de Estado de Investigación, Desarrollo e Innovación (MTM2016‐77015‐R)

Una Visión Global de la Deuda Financiera de los Hogares Chilenos en la Última Década.

Este artículo constituye el primer esfuerzo por proporcionar una caracterización extensiva de la deuda financiera de los hogares chilenos en la última década, que permita contribuir al debate con una evaluación del riesgo que este segmento conlleva para el sistema financiero chileno. Con este objetivo se caracterizan los distintos productos crediticios disponibles, los diversos oferentes del crédito y las principales características de los deudores en cada segmento, además de analizar la exposición de los agentes financieros a la deuda de los hogares, incluyendo una comparación de sus indicadores de riesgo de crédito. La deuda de los hogares chilenos muestra un importante dinamismo en el periodo 1997-2008. Este se manifiesta en diversos aspectos, entre los cuales están los cambios en las condiciones crediticias, el ingreso de nuevos proveedores al sistema, modificaciones normativas y una fuerte correlación con el ciclo económico. Si bien el presente análisis apunta a que, por múltiples factores, el riesgo de este segmento crediticio es acotado, también pone en evidencia la relevancia de su constante monitoreo.

Control of a COVID-19 Outbreak in a Spanish Prison: Lessons Learned in Outbreak Control

The rapid spread of highly transmissible respiratory infections in carceral settings occurs due to their conglomerate nature. The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in large outbreaks in jails and prisons in many settings. Herein, we describe an outbreak of SARS-CoV2 infection in a prison in Alicante, Spain. Prior to January 2021, testing for coronavirus infection was not widely available in jails and prisons nationwide. Offering of testing services in Spanish carceral facilities, coincided with the deployment of COVID-19 vaccination in the larger community. However, COVID-19 vaccine role out of incarcerated individuals occurred later during the deployment plan. With the identification of the initial cases of this outbreak, two units of the facility were assigned for population management: one for inmates with confirmed infection by positive PCR detection of SARS-COV-2 infection in nasopharyngeal swabs. Inmates with confirmed exposure and thus considered close contacts were place in a second isolation unit. Functional quarantine was employed in some instances. A reactive testing strategy was instituted at baseline, and at 7 and 14 days of nasopharyngeal specimens by PCR. A total of 1,097 nasopharyngeal specimens were obtained for PCR testing during the outbreak, which lasted a total of 80 days between the index case the end of medical isolation of the last case. A total of 103 COVID-19 cases were identified during the outbreak. Of these, three inmates developed severe manifestations requiring hospitalization, and one died. Were identified, among which there were three hospitalized and one deceased. Among cases and confirmed contacts, we conducted close clinical monitoring, symptom screening, and daily temperature checks. The implementation of these interventions along with early medical isolation of cases, quarantining of contacts, and interval testing to detect presymptomatic or asymptomatic cases were instrumental in containing this outbreak

Cytomegalovirus Pulmonary Involvement in an Immunocompetent Adult

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is a linear double-stranded DNA virus that may cause severe and potentially fatal infection in immunocompromised hosts. In immunocompetent individuals, the infection is typically mild or asymptomatic. However, in the last years, some cases of severe cytomegalovirus infection in immunocompetent individuals have been described. Clinical Presentation. 'e authors present a male patient aged 42 years, without specific medical history, who presented a 15-day history of fever, headache, night sweats, odynophagia, and bilateral otalgia, without improvement after four days of therapy with amoxicillin/clavulanic acid. Blood count and biochemistry were performed with liver cytolysis pattern. Chest teleradiography showed diffuse interstitial infiltrate. 'oracic CT scan revealed areas in a ground glass with a cross-linking component in the left and right upper lung lobes compatible with an inflammatory/infectious process. Blood serology was positive for CMV IgG and IgM. 'e detection on blood and bronchoalveolar lavage of CMV DNA by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was also positive. Ganciclovir was started based on the clinical features and the result of CMV serology. After 48 hours, there was a significant clinical improvement, with remission of fever, and he was discharged on the 13th day of hospitalization with oral valganciclovir, completing a 21-day antiviral course at home. Conclusion. With this clinical case, the authors highlight the importance of considering CMV infection in evaluating patients with pneumonia, even in immunocompetent ones, particularly in those with no clinical improvement with antibiotics instituted for bacterial pneumonia, and when other causes have been ruled outinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio