Building a Predictive Model for Baseball Games

In this paper, we will discuss a method of building a predictive model for Major League Baseball Games. We detail the reasoning for pursuing the proposed predictive model in terms of social popularity and the complexity of analyzing individual variables. We apply a coarse-grain outlook inspired by Simon Dedeos\u27 work on Human Social Systems, in particular the open source website Wikipedia [2] by attempting to quantify the influence of winning and losing streaks instead of analyzing individual performance variables. We will discuss initial findings of data collected from the LA Dodgers and Colorado Rockies and apply further statistical analysis to find optimal betting points using a coarse-grain approach. We will apply Bayes\u27 Theorem to add predictive power to a naive model using winning and losing streaks. We will discuss possible shortcomings of the proposed using Bayes\u27 approach and address the question as to whether or not baseball wins and losses can be produced using a random process

Electron Yield of Challenging Materials: Low Density Polyethylene and Carbon-composite Nanodielectrics

The electron yield—the ratio of the number of emitted electrons to incident electrons—is a key material property that characterizes how materials will charge due to exposure to electron fluxes. The USU Materials Physics Group has developed expertise in measuring this for a wide array of conductors, semiconductors and insulators, including many challenging materials. The basic definitions associated with electron yield and how they are measured will be discussed. We will highlight many critical applications investigated at USU, particularly those associated with spacecraft charging as materials interact with space plasma environments. Electron irradiation experiments conducted to investigate the electron transport, charging, discharging, and emission properties of two challenging and technologically useful materials are discussed. The first is the most structurally simple polymeric material, low density polyethylene (LDPE). The electron yield of this ubiquitous thermoplastic is influenced by the material’s very low conductivity and high negative electron affinity. Similar experiments were performed on an epoxy/carbon-fiber composite material used in extreme applications to understand how the results are influenced by the nanoscale structure of the conducting carbon fibers embedded in the dielectric epoxy matrix

June Jordan: 09-24-1981

June Jordan was a poet and former professor of English at Stony Brook University. She begins the interview by reading her poem,“A Poem about Intelligence for My Brothers and Sisters.” She continues the interview by discussing how she first became a poet, and talks about her own political poetry and political poetry as a genre. She then talks about the situation in South Africa during the time period of this interview. Jordan briefly touches on her future literary plans and her contribution to literature as a black female writer, and ends the interview by discussing her criticism with the feminist movement.https://digitalcommons.brockport.edu/writers_videos/1019/thumbnail.jp

Optimal client recommendation for market makers in illiquid financial products

The process of liquidity provision in financial markets can result in prolonged exposure to illiquid instruments for market makers. In this case, where a proprietary position is not desired, pro-actively targeting the right client who is likely to be interested can be an effective means to offset this position, rather than relying on commensurate interest arising through natural demand. In this paper, we consider the inference of a client profile for the purpose of corporate bond recommendation, based on typical recorded information available to the market maker. Given a historical record of corporate bond transactions and bond meta-data, we use a topic-modelling analogy to develop a probabilistic technique for compiling a curated list of client recommendations for a particular bond that needs to be traded, ranked by probability of interest. We show that a model based on Latent Dirichlet Allocation offers promising performance to deliver relevant recommendations for sales traders.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

Using the 'myVolcano' mobile phone app for citizen science in St. Vincent and the Grenadines : a pilot study

The British Geological Survey (BGS) has been working with Caribbean partners on the role of citizen science in increasing resilience to natural hazards. The work has largely focused on the potential use of the myVolcano smartphone app, which was developed by the BGS following the 2010 Eyafjallajökull and 2011 Grímsvötn eruptions in Iceland. During these eruptions the BGS asked the UK public to collect particle samples, subsequently analysing these for ash presence to map the distribution of ash fallout across the UK. These requests led to the development of the myVolcano app, which was designed to capture transboundary and distal observations of volcanic ash and emissions. The observations are made visible to other users via an interactive map built into the app. The map interface has global coverage and the data collection methods (free-text descriptions and photographs) are such that information about any natural hazard, anywhere in the world, can be captured. In 2015, BGS carried out an ESRC-DfID-NERC funded scoping study in collaboration with the University of the West Indies’ Seismic Research Centre (UWI SRC), to test the potential use of the app in environments affected by proximal volcanic hazards. The study focused on St. Vincent and the Grenadines and investigated the potential for capturing a wider variety of observations for use by the public, operational scientists and civil protection. The study, which included a combination of desk study and remote interviews, highlighted the potential for, and challenges of, using such an app for increasing resilience to natural hazards and the need for a follow-up study in St Vincent. In March 2017, a workshop and school activities were held in St. Vincent to collect feedback from potential users of myVolcano, hereafter referred to as the pilot study. Workshop participants came from across government, monitoring agencies, emergency response and telecommunications. As part of the workshop, a multi-hazard scenario was ‘played out’ to stimulate discussions on the usability of the app, data gathering and processing, and participants’ use of existing citizen science applications. Discussions developed around data validation and quality assurance, data sharing and presentation, local management of data by nominated scientists (e.g. to facilitate real-time decision making) and the associated need for a locally appropriate app (i.e. no one size fits all). This last point is particularly significant when considering the utility of an app in several countries – the user interface, at least, requires specific tailoring to the country’s needs. Using this feedback, the BGS Official Development Assistance (ODA) programme is currently funding collaborations with Caribbean partners in order to modify the app to meet the local requirements, including widening the multi-hazard application and enhancing two-way information sharing. Of particular importance is how best to share critical information with those making observations and how to make observations available to decision-makers and monitoring scientists in real-time (e.g. through local management of the app)

Epidemiology and Phylogenetic Analysis of Viral Respiratory Infections in Vietnam.

Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) impose a major public health burden on fragile healthcare systems of developing Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam. The epidemiology, genetic diversity and transmission patterns of respiratory viral pathogens that circulate in this region are not well characterized. We used RT-PCR to screen for 14 common respiratory viruses in nasal/throat samples from 4326 ARI patients from 5 sites in Vietnam during 2012-2016. 64% of patients tested positive for viruses; 14% tested positive multiple co-infecting viruses. The most frequently detected viruses were Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV, 23%), Human Rhinovirus (HRV, 13%), Influenza A virus (IAV, 11%) and Human Bocavirus (HBoV, 7%). RSV infections peaked in July to October, were relatively more common in children 5 years in the central region. Coinfection with IAV or RSV was associated with increased disease severity compared with patients only infected with HBoV or HRV. Over a hundred genomes belonging to 13 families and 24 genera were obtained via metagenomic sequencing, including novel viruses and viruses less commonly associated with ARIs. Phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses further indicated that neighboring countries were the most likely source of many virus lineages causing ARIs in Vietnam and estimated the period that specific lineages have been circulating. Our study illustrates the value of applying the state-of-the-art virus diagnostic methods (multiplex RT-PCR and metagenomic sequencing) and phylodynamic analyses at a national level to generate an integrated picture of viral ARI epidemiology

The effect of distance from cancer facility on advanced clinical stage at diagnosis in patients with cervical cancer

Purpose/Objectives In the United States, cervical cancer remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. The effect of distance has a complicated relationship with disease characteristics and outcomes in other cancers. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between distance from cancer facility on clinical stage at diagnosis in women with cervical cancer. Materials/Methods Data were obtained from the National Cancer Database which include patient demographics, disease characteristics, and treatment details. Persons diagnosed with cervical cancer from 2004 to 2015 were included. Subjects were excluded if they had missing information, variant histology, or lived >1,000 miles from their facility resulting in 51,413 persons. Disease was classified as localized (stage 1a-2a) or advanced (stage 2b-4b). Univariate comparisons were performed using analysis of variance and chi-square test. Multivariable logistic regression was used to investigate the effect of distance quartiles on advanced stage while adjusting for other significant variables. Results Mean age was 51.0 years, 16.9% of women were black, 14.7% were Hispanic, 45.0% had private insurance, and 10.7% were uninsured. Overall, 50.9% of women presented with advanced disease. In multivariable analysis, greater distance demonstrated a stepwise risk reduction of advanced disease where those in the farthest quartile had odds ratio of 0.73 (p<0.001) relative to the closest. Additionally, age, race, income, and insurance status significantly affected risk of advanced disease. Conclusions Distance from cancer facility resulted in lower risk of advanced stage disease at diagnosis. Additional research could elucidate the nuanced relationship between distance, disease characteristics and outcomes in cervical cancer

What Kind of Seed Dormancy Might Palms Have?

Palm diaspores are reported to have various kinds of dormancy. However, (1) the embryo is underdeveloped; (2) the endocarp is water permeable; and (3) the diaspores take a long time to germinate. Thus, we conclude that the diaspores of the majority of palm species have morphophysiological dormancy (MPD). The ones that do not have MPD are morphologically dormant

Efficacy and tolerability of high dose "ethinylestradiol" in post-menopausal advanced breast cancer patients heavily pre-treated with endocrine agents

BACKGROUND: High dose estrogens (HDEs) were frequently used as endocrine agents prior to the introduction of tamoxifen which carries fewer side effects. Due to the development of resistance to available endocrine agents in almost all women with metastatic breast cancer, interest has renewed in the use of HDEs as yet another endocrine option that may have activity. We report our experience with one of the HDEs ("ethinylestradiol" 1 mg daily) in advanced breast cancer (locally advanced and metastatic) in post-menopausal women who had progressed on multiple endocrine agents. PATIENTS AND METHODS: According to a database of advanced breast cancer patients seen in our Unit since 1998, those who had complete set of information and fulfilled the following criteria were studied: (1) patients in whom further endocrine therapy was deemed appropriate i.e., patients who have had clinical benefit with previous endocrine agents or were not fit or unwilling to receive chemotherapy in the presence of potentially life-threatening visceral metastases; (2) disease was assessable by UICC criteria; (3) were treated with "ethinylestradiol" until they were withdrawn from treatment due to adverse events or disease progression. RESULTS: Twelve patients with a median age of 75.1 years (49.1 – 85 years) were identified. Majority (N = 8) had bony disease. They had ethinylestradiol as 3(rd )to 7(th )line endocrine therapy. One patient (8%) came off treatment early due to hepato-renal syndrome. Clinical benefit (objective response or durable stable disease for ≥ 6 months) was seen in 4 patients (33.3%) with a median duration of response of 10+ (7–36) months. The time to treatment failure was 4 (0.5–36) months. CONCLUSION: Yet unreported, high dose "ethinylestradiol" is another viable therapeutic strategy in heavily pre-treated patients when further endocrine therapy is deemed appropriate. Although it tends to carry more side effects, they may not be comparable to those of other HDEs (such as diethylstilbestrol) or chemotherapy