Crisis in Latin America : infrastructure investment, employment and the expectations of stimulus

Infrastructure investment is a central part of the stimulus plans of the Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) region as it confronts the growing financial crisis. This paper estimates the potential effects on direct, indirect, and induced employment for different types of infrastructure projects with LAC-specific variables. The analysis finds that the direct and indirect short-term employment generation potential of infrastructure capital investment projects may be considerable - averaging around 40,000 annual jobs per US$1billion in LAC, depending upon such variables as the mix of subsectors in the investment program; the technologies deployed; local wages for skilled and unskilled labor; and the degrees of leakages to imported inputs. While these numbers do not account for substitution effect, they are built around an assumed"basket"of investments that crosses infrastructure sectors most of which are not employment-maximizing. Albeit limited in scope, rural road maintenance projects may employ 200,000 to 500,000 annualized direct jobs for every US$1billion spent. The paper also describes the potential risks to effective infrastructure investment in an environment of crisis including sorting and planning contradictions, delayed implementation and impact, affordability, and corruption.Transport Economics Policy&Planning,,Banks&Banking Reform,Non Bank Financial Institutions,Debt Markets

Quantification of the whole-body burden of radiographic osteoarthritis using factor analysis

INTRODUCTION: Although osteoarthritis (OA) commonly involves multiple joints, no widely accepted method for quantifying whole-body OA burden exists. Therefore, our aim was to apply factor analytic methods to radiographic OA (rOA) grades across multiple joint sites, representing both presence and severity, to quantify the burden of rOA. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data from the Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project. The sample (n = 2092) had a mean age of 65 ± 11 years, body mass index (BMI) 31 ± 7 kg/m2, with 33% men and 34% African Americans. A single expert reader (intra-rater κ = 0.89) provided radiographic grades based on standard atlases for the hands (30 joints, including bilateral distal and proximal interphalangeal [IP], thumb IP, metacarpophalangeal [MCP] and carpometacarpal [CMC] joints), knees (patellofemoral and tibiofemoral, 4 joints), hips (2 joints), and spine (5 levels [L1/2 to L5/S1]). All grades were entered into an exploratory common factor analysis as continuous variables. Stratified factor analyses were used to look for differences by gender, race, age, and cohort subgroups. RESULTS: Four factors were identified as follows: IP/CMC factor (20 joints), MCP factor (8 joints), Knee factor (4 joints), Spine factor (5 levels). These factors had high internal consistency reliability (Cronbach's α range 0.80 to 0.95), were not collapsible into a single factor, and had moderate between-factor correlations (Pearson correlation coefficient r = 0.24 to 0.44). There were no major differences in factor structure when stratified by subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: The 4 factors obtained in this analysis indicate that the variables contained within each factor share an underlying cause, but the 4 factors are distinct, suggesting that combining these joint sites into one overall measure is not appropriate. Using such factors to reflect multi-joint rOA in statistical models can reduce the number of variables needed and increase precision

Associations of educational attainment, occupation and community poverty with knee osteoarthritis in the Johnston County (North Carolina) osteoarthritis project

Abstract: Introduction: The purpose of this study was to examine data from the Johnston County Osteoarthritis (OA) Project for independent associations of educational attainment, occupation and community poverty with tibiofemoral knee OA. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis was conducted on 3,591 individuals (66% Caucasian and 34% African American). Educational attainment ( 25%) were examined separately and together in logistic models adjusting for covariates of age, gender, race, body mass index (BMI), smoking, knee injury and occupational activity score. Outcomes were presence of radiographic knee OA (rOA), symptomatic knee OA (sxOA), bilateral rOA and bilateral sxOA. Results: When all three socioeconomic status (SES) variables were analyzed simultaneously, low educational attainment was significantly associated with rOA (odds ratio (OR) = 1.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20, 1.73), bilateral rOA (OR = 1.43, 95% CI 1.13, 1.81), and sxOA (OR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.34, 2.06), after adjusting for covariates. Independently, living in a community of high household poverty rate was associated with rOA (OR = 1.83, 95% CI 1.43, 2.36), bilateral rOA (OR = 1.56, 95% CI 1.12, 2.16), and sxOA (OR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.00, 1.83). Occupation had no significant independent association beyond educational attainment and community poverty. Conclusions: Both educational attainment and community SES were independently associated with knee OA after adjusting for primary risk factors for knee OA

Variations in Hip Shape Are Associated with Radiographic Knee Osteoarthritis : Cross-sectional and Longitudinal Analyses of the Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project

Acknowledgment We thank our funding sources, as well as the staff and participants in the Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project, without whom this work would not be possible. Funding was provided in part by the US National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases (NIAMS) K23 AR061406 (Nelson); US National Institutes of Health (NIH)/NIAMS P60AR30701 (Jordan/Renner/Schwartz); US Centers for Disease Control/Association of Schools of Public Health S043 and S3486 (Jordan/Renner); K24-AR04884, P50-AR063043, and P50-AR060752 (Lane); and NIH/National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences KL2TR001109 (Golightly).Peer reviewedPostprin

Nucleotide Frequencies in Human Genome and Fibonacci Numbers

This work presents a mathematical model that establishes an interesting connection between nucleotide frequencies in human single-stranded DNA and the famous Fibonacci's numbers. The model relies on two assumptions. First, Chargaff's second parity rule should be valid, and, second, the nucleotide frequencies should approach limit values when the number of bases is sufficiently large. Under these two hypotheses, it is possible to predict the human nucleotide frequencies with accuracy. It is noteworthy, that the predicted values are solutions of an optimization problem, which is commonplace in many nature's phenomena.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figure

Limited educational attainment and radiographic and symptomatic knee osteoarthritis: a cross-sectional analysis using data from the Johnston County (North Carolina) Osteoarthritis Project

Abstract Introduction Applying a cross-sectional analysis to a sample of 2,627 African-American and Caucasian adults aged ≥ 45 years from the Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project, we studied the association between educational attainment and prevalence of radiographic knee osteoarthritis and symptomatic knee osteoarthritis. Methods Age- and race-adjusted associations between education and osteoarthritis outcomes were assessed by gender-stratified logistic regression models, with additional models adjusting for body mass index, knee injury, smoking, alcohol use, and occupational factors. Results In an analysis of all participants, low educational attainment (<12 years) was associated with higher prevalence of four knee osteoarthritis outcomes (unilateral and bilateral radiographic and symptomatic osteoarthritis). Women with low educational attainment had 50% higher odds of having radiographic knee osteoarthritis and 65% higher odds of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis compared with those with higher educational attainment (≥ 12 years), by using fully adjusted models. In the subset of postmenopausal women, these associations tended to be weaker but little affected by adjustment for hormone replacement therapy. Men with low educational attainment had 85% higher odds of having symptomatic knee osteoarthritis by using fully adjusted models, but the association with radiographic knee osteoarthritis was explained by age. Conclusions After adjustment for known risk factors, educational attainment, as an indicator of socioeconomic status, is associated with symptomatic knee osteoarthritis in both men and women and with radiographic knee osteoarthritis in women

Solutions of multigravity theories and discretized brane worlds

We determine solutions to 5D Einstein gravity with a discrete fifth dimension. The properties of the solutions depend on the discretization scheme we use and some of them have no continuum counterpart. In particular, we find that the neglect of the lapse field (along the discretized direction) gives rise to Randall-Sundrum type metric with a negative tension brane. However, no brane source is required. We show that this result is robust under changes in the discretization scheme. The inclusion of the lapse field gives rise to solutions whose continuum limit is gauge fixed by the discretization scheme. We find however one particular scheme which leads to an undetermined lapse reflecting the reparametrization invariance of the continuum theory. We also find other solutions, with no continuum counterpart with changes in the metric signature or avoidance of singularity. We show that the models allow a continuous mass spectrum for the gravitons with an effective 4D interaction at small scales. We also discuss some cosmological solutions.Comment: 19 page

Cross-sectional comparison of extended anteroposterior and posteroanterior fixed flexion positioning to assess radiographic osteoarthritis at the knee: The Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project

To compare values for Kellgren-Lawrence (K-L) grade, joint space narrowing (JSN), and osteophytes (OST) in anteroposterior (AP) extended and fixed-flexion posteroanterior (PA-FF) radiographs obtained during a single clinic visit (the first follow-up of the Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project (JoCo OA))

Incident symptomatic hip osteoarthritis is associated with differences in hip shape by active shape modeling: The Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project

To investigate hip shape by active shape modeling (ASM) as a potential predictor of incident radiographic and symptomatic hip OA (rHOA and srHOA)