The Richard commission and the financing of devolved government : the economics of devolution in Wales: Briefing No. 8

If the Barnett formula is rigorously applied to determine the budget of the Welsh Assembly Government, this will ultimately adversely affect the economy of Wales by limiting the growth in aggregate demand. This effect is reinforced now that population weights determining rises in expenditure in Wales (and Scotland and Northern Ireland) are regularly up-dated. There is some controversy in Wales about whether some form of needs-assessment exercise would favour Wales relative to its current position. What is clear is that the outcome of a rigorous, long term application of the Barnett formula would be a share of UK public expenditures in Wales (and Scotland and Northern Ireland) that was almost certainly below the level that would be dictated by any conventional understanding of 'needs'. The impact of the tax-varying power favoured by the Richard Commission is ambiguous, with the direction of effects dependent on the reaction of the current labour force and potential migrants. If workers insist on full compensation for loss of income to tax through a rise in gross wages a tax rise would lead to an economic contraction. However, if workers value the additional public services financed by the tax rise as equal to their loss of disposable income, this effect can be avoided. Much in other words would depend on how the proceeds of the tax rise were spen

Experience as a Free Parameter in the Cognitive Modeling of Language

To account for natural variability in cognitive processing, it is standard practice to optimize the parameters of a model to account for behavioral data. However, variability reflecting the information to which one has been exposed is usually ignored. Nevertheless, most language theories assign a large role to an individual’s experience with language. We present a new way to fit language-based behavioral data that combines simple learning and processing mechanisms using optimization of language materials. We demonstrate that benchmark fits on multiple linguistic tasks can be achieved using this method and will argue that one must account not only for the internal parameters of a model but also the external experience that people receive when theorizing about human behavior

Non-Abelian (p,q) Strings in the Warped Deformed Conifold

We calculate the tension of $(p,q)$-strings in the warped deformed conifold using the non-Abelian DBI action. In the large flux limit, we find exact agreement with the recent expression obtained by Firouzjahi, Leblond and Henry-Tye up to and including order $1/M^2$ terms if $q$ is also taken to be large. Furthermore using the finite $q$ prescription for the symmetrised trace operation we anticipate the most general expression for the tension valid for any $(p,q)$. We find that even in this instance, corrections to the tension scale as $1/M^2$ which is not consistent with simple Casimir scaling.Comment: 18 pages, Latex, 1 figure; Added a discussion of the case when the warp factor parameter $b\neq 1$ and typos correcte

Potential Benefits of Cattle Vaccination as a Supplementary Control for Bovine Tuberculosis

This is the final published version of the article. It was originally published in PLOS Computational Biology (Conlan AJK, Brooks Pollock E, McKinley TJ, Mitchell AP, Jones GJ, Vordermeier M, Wood JLN, PLoS Computational Biology 2015, 11(2): e1004038. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004038).\ud \ud ? 2015 Crown Copyright. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the free Open Government Licence, which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. See: http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/o?pen-government-licence/open-government-l?icence.htmVaccination for the control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle is not currently used within any international control program, and is illegal within the EU. Candidate vaccines, based upon Mycobacterium bovis bacillus Calmette-Gu?rin (BCG) all interfere with the action of the tuberculin skin test, which is used to determine if animals, herds and countries are officially bTB-free. New diagnostic tests that Differentiate Infected from Vaccinated Animals (DIVA) offer the potential to introduce vaccination within existing eradication programs. We use within-herd transmission models estimated from historical data from Great Britain (GB) to explore the feasibility of such supplemental use of vaccination. The economic impact of bovine Tuberculosis for farmers is dominated by the costs associated with testing, and associated restrictions on animal movements. Farmers? willingness to adopt vaccination will require vaccination to not only reduce the burden of infection, but also the risk of restrictions being imposed. We find that, under the intensive sequence of testing in GB, it is the specificity of the DIVA test, rather than the sensitivity, that is the greatest barrier to see a herd level benefit of vaccination. The potential negative effects of vaccination could be mitigated through relaxation of testing. However, this could potentially increase the hidden burden of infection within Officially TB Free herds. Using our models, we explore the range of the DIVA test characteristics necessary to see a protective herd level benefit of vaccination. We estimate that a DIVA specificity of at least 99.85% and sensitivity of >40% is required to see a protective benefit of vaccination with no increase in the risk of missed infection. Data from experimentally infected animals suggest that this target specificity could be achieved in vaccinates using a cocktail of three DIVA antigens while maintaining a sensitivity of 73.3% (95%CI: 61.9, 82.9%) relative to post-mortem detection.This study was funded by Defra project SE3127 and uses nationally collected incidence and cattle-movement data sets held by Defra. The funders had no role in study design, data analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Infrared activity of hydrogen molecules trapped in Si

The rovibrational-translational states of a hydrogen molecule moving in a cage site in Si, when subjected to an electrical field arising from its surroundings, are investigated. The wave functions are expressed in terms of basis functions consisting of the eigenfunctions of the molecule confined to move in the cavity and rovibrational states of the free molecule. The energy levels, intensities of infrared and Raman transitions, effects of uniaxial stress, and a neighboring oxygen defect are found and compared with existing experimental data

Non-photorefractive cw Tm-indiffused Ti:LiNbO₃ waveguide laser operating at room temperature

We report laser operation at 1.81µm and 1.85µm in a Tm3+:LiNbO3 Ti-diffused waveguide doped by thermal indiffusion at high temperature. We believe this is the first time lasing has been seen in Tm:LiNbO3 at room temperature. Continuous-wave operation was achieved at room temperature with a threshold of ~42 mW absorbed power. The output power was observed to be stable, without any sign of photorefractive damage

Network Analysis Reveals Distinct Clinical Syndromes Underlying Acute Mountain Sickness

Acute mountain sickness (AMS) is a common problem among visitors at high altitude, and may progress to life-threatening pulmonary and cerebral oedema in a minority of cases. International consensus defines AMS as a constellation of subjective, non-specific symptoms. Specifically, headache, sleep disturbance, fatigue and dizziness are given equal diagnostic weighting. Different pathophysiological mechanisms are now thought to underlie headache and sleep disturbance during acute exposure to high altitude. Hence, these symptoms may not belong together as a single syndrome. Using a novel visual analogue scale (VAS), we sought to undertake a systematic exploration of the symptomatology of AMS using an unbiased, data-driven approach originally designed for analysis of gene expression. Symptom scores were collected from 292 subjects during 1110 subject-days at altitudes between 3650 m and 5200 m on Apex expeditions to Bolivia and Kilimanjaro. Three distinct patterns of symptoms were consistently identified. Although fatigue is a ubiquitous finding, sleep disturbance and headache are each commonly reported without the other. The commonest pattern of symptoms was sleep disturbance and fatigue, with little or no headache. In subjects reporting severe headache, 40% did not report sleep disturbance. Sleep disturbance correlates poorly with other symptoms of AMS (Mean Spearman correlation 0.25). These results challenge the accepted paradigm that AMS is a single disease process and describe at least two distinct syndromes following acute ascent to high altitude. This approach to analysing symptom patterns has potential utility in other clinical syndromes

Thermally indiffused Tm³⁺:LiNbO₃ waveguide lasers

Rare earth doped LiNbO3 is an interesting laser host as it has nonlinear, electro-optic and acousto-optic properties. Low-loss waveguides can also be made in this material and then combined with thermal indiffusion of the laser dopant. LiNbO3 can also be periodically poled for quasi-phase matching and/or reduced photorefraction. We report the first room temperature lasing of Tm3+:LiNbO3, and the first periodically poled Ti waveguides formed by electric field poling. Lasing was observed at 1.85µm in a Ti-indiffused waveguide with rare earth doping performed by thermal indiffusion

Spectra and energy levels of the trivalent ytterbium ion doped into lithium niobate by thermal indiffusion

An x-cut LiNbO3 substrate has been doped with Yb3+ ions by thermal diffusion from an Yb metal film of thickness 7nm. Polarised absorption and fluorescence spectra of the dopant ion have been measured using Ti-diffused y-propagating channel waveguides prepared in the doped region. Yb is a diode- pumpable laser ion with characteristics which can be compared favourably with those of Nd in some respects; for example the small energy difference between pump and laser photons reduces thermal load facilitating high power operation. A waveguide laser geometry is particularly advantageous for Yb due to the quasi-3-level nature of the laser transition. The simple fabrication technique described here has been used to produce a system which may have the potential to operate as an Yb waveguide laser in an electro-optic host crystal