Stochastic programming approach for optimal day-ahead market bidding curves of a microgrid

The deregulation of electricity markets has driven the need to optimise market bidding strategies, e.g. when and how much electricity to buy or sell, in order to gain an economic advantage in a competitive market environment. The present work aims to determine optimal day-ahead market bidding curves for a microgrid comprised of a battery, power generator, photovoltaic (PV) system and an electricity load from a commercial building. Existing day-ahead market bidding models heuristically fix price values for each allowed bidding curve point prior to the optimisation problem or relax limitations set by market rules on the number of price–quantity points per curve. In contrast, this work integrates the optimal selection of prices for the construction of day-ahead market bidding curves into the optimisation of the energy system schedule; aiming to further enhance the bidding curve accuracy while remaining feasible under present market rules. The examined optimisation problem is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model, embedded in a two-stage stochastic programming approach. Uncertainty is considered in the electricity price and the PV power. First stage decisions are day-ahead market bidding curves, while the overall objective is to minimise the expected operational cost of the microgrid. The bidding strategy derived is then examined through Monte Carlo simulations by comparing it against a deterministic approach and two alternative stochastic bidding approaches from literature

Evolution of seismicity near the southernmost terminus of the San Andreas Fault: Implications of recent earthquake clusters for earthquake risk in southern California

Three earthquake clusters that occurred in the direct vicinity of the southern terminus of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) in 2001, 2009, and 2016 raised significant concern regarding possible triggering of a major earthquake on the southern SAF, which has not ruptured in more than 320 years. These clusters of small and moderate earthquakes with M ≤ 4.8 added to an increase in seismicity rate in the northern Brawley seismic zone that began after the 1979 M_w 6.5 Imperial Valley earthquake, in contrast to the quiet from 1932 to 1979. The clusters so far triggered neither small nor large events on the SAF. The mostly negative Coulomb stress changes they imparted on the SAF may have reduced the likelihood that the events would initiate rupture on the SAF, although large magnitude earthquake triggering is poorly understood. The relatively rapid spatial and temporal migration rates within the clusters imply aseismic creep as a possible driver rather than fluid migration

Field cancerization in breast cancer

Breast cancer affects one in seven women worldwide during their lifetime. Widespread mammographic screening programs and education campaigns allow for early detection of the disease, often during its asymptomatic phase. Current practice in treatment and recurrence monitoring is based primarily on pathological evaluations but can also encompass genomic evaluations, both of which focus on the primary tumor. Although breast cancer is one of the most studied cancers, patients still recur at a rate of up to 15% within the first 10 years post‐surgery. Local recurrence was originally attributed to tumor cells contaminating histologically normal (HN) tissues beyond the surgical margin, but advances in technology have allowed for the identification of distinct aberrations that exist in the peri‐tumoral tissues themselves. One leading theory to explain this phenomenon is the field cancerization theory. Under this hypothesis, tumors arise from a field of molecularly altered cells that create a permissive environment for malignant evolution, which can occur with or without morphological changes. The traditional histopathology paradigm dictates that molecular alterations are reflected in the tissue phenotype. However, the spectrum of inter‐patient variability of normal breast tissue may obfuscate recognition of a cancerized field during routine diagnostics. In this review, we explore the concept of field cancerization focusing on HN peri‐tumoral tissues: we present the pathological and molecular features of field cancerization within these tissues and discuss how the use of peri‐tumoral tissues can affect research. Our observations suggest that pathological and molecular evaluations could be used synergistically to assess risk and guide the therapeutic management of patients. © 2022 The Authors. The Journal of Pathology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland

Redefining the performing arts archive

This paper investigates representations of performance and the role of the archive. Notions of record and archive are critically investigated, raising questions about applying traditional archival definitions to the performing arts. Defining the nature of performances is at the root of all difficulties regarding their representation. Performances are live events, so for many people the idea of recording them for posterity is inappropriate. The challenge of creating and curating representations of an ephemeral art form are explored and performance-specific concepts of record and archive are posited. An open model of archives, encouraging multiple representations and allowing for creative reuse and reinterpretation to keep the spirit of the performance alive, is envisaged as the future of the performing arts archive

You call it ‘Self-Exuberance,’ I call it ‘Bragging.’ Miscalibrated Predictions of Emotional Responses to Self-Promotion

People engage in self-promotional behavior because they want others to hold favorable images of them. Self-promotion, however, entails a tradeoff between conveying one’s positive attributes and being seen as bragging. We propose that people get this tradeoff wrong because they erroneously project their own feelings onto their interaction partners. As a consequence, people overestimate the extent to which recipients of their self-promotion will feel proud of and happy for them, and underestimate the extent to which recipients will feel annoyed (Experiment 1 and 2). Because people tend to self-promote excessively when trying to make a favorable impression on others, such efforts often backfire, causing targets of the self-promotion to view the self-promoter as less likeable and as a braggart (Experiment 3)

Population pulsation resonances of excitons in monolayer MoSe2 with sub 1 {\mu}eV linewidth

Monolayer transition metal dichalcogenides, a new class of atomically thin semiconductors, possess optically coupled 2D valley excitons. The nature of exciton relaxation in these systems is currently poorly understood. Here, we investigate exciton relaxation in monolayer MoSe2 using polarization-resolved coherent nonlinear optical spectroscopy with high spectral resolution. We report strikingly narrow population pulsation resonances with two different characteristic linewidths of 1 {\mu}eV and <0.2 {\mu}eV at low-temperature. These linewidths are more than three orders of magnitude narrower than the photoluminescence and absorption linewidth, and indicate that a component of the exciton relaxation dynamics occurs on timescales longer than 1 ns. The ultra-narrow resonance (<0.2 {\mu}eV) emerges with increasing excitation intensity, and implies the existence of a long-lived state whose lifetime exceeds 6 ns.Comment: (PRL, in press

1980 Missouri beef cattle pesticide use survey

"Miscellaneous Publication 520, January 1981, 1M

Recapture or precapture? Fallibility of standard capture-recapture methods in the presence of referrals between sources.

Capture-recapture methods, largely developed in ecology, are now commonly used in epidemiology to adjust for incomplete registries and to estimate the size of difficult-to-reach populations such as problem drug users. Overlapping lists of individuals in the target population, taken from administrative data sources, are considered analogous to overlapping "captures" of animals. Log-linear models, incorporating interaction terms to account for dependencies between sources, are used to predict the number of unobserved individuals and, hence, the total population size. A standard assumption to ensure parameter identifiability is that the highest-order interaction term is 0. We demonstrate that, when individuals are referred directly between sources, this assumption will often be violated, and the standard modeling approach may lead to seriously biased estimates. We refer to such individuals as having been "precaptured," rather than truly recaptured. Although sometimes an alternative identifiable log-linear model could accommodate the referral structure, this will not always be the case. Further, multiple plausible models may fit the data equally well but provide widely varying estimates of the population size. We demonstrate an alternative modeling approach, based on an interpretable parameterization and driven by careful consideration of the relationships between the sources, and we make recommendations for capture-recapture in practice

The global distribution of Bacillus anthracis and associated anthrax risk to humans, livestock and wildlife.

Bacillus anthracis is a spore-forming, Gram-positive bacterium responsible for anthrax, an acute infection that most significantly affects grazing livestock and wild ungulates, but also poses a threat to human health. The geographic extent of B. anthracis is poorly understood, despite multi-decade research on anthrax epizootic and epidemic dynamics; many countries have limited or inadequate surveillance systems, even within known endemic regions. Here, we compile a global occurrence dataset of human, livestock and wildlife anthrax outbreaks. With these records, we use boosted regression trees to produce a map of the global distribution of B. anthracis as a proxy for anthrax risk. We estimate that 1.83 billion people (95% credible interval (CI): 0.59-4.16 billion) live within regions of anthrax risk, but most of that population faces little occupational exposure. More informatively, a global total of 63.8 million poor livestock keepers (95% CI: 17.5-168.6 million) and 1.1 billion livestock (95% CI: 0.4-2.3 billion) live within vulnerable regions. Human and livestock vulnerability are both concentrated in rural rainfed systems throughout arid and temperate land across Eurasia, Africa and North America. We conclude by mapping where anthrax risk could disrupt sensitive conservation efforts for wild ungulates that coincide with anthrax-prone landscapes