Mixed mode oscillations in a conceptual climate model

Much work has been done on relaxation oscillations and other simple oscillators in conceptual climate models. However, the oscillatory patterns in climate data are often more complicated than what can be described by such mechanisms. This paper examines complex oscillatory behavior in climate data through the lens of mixed-mode oscillations. As a case study, a conceptual climate model with governing equations for global mean temperature, atmospheric carbon, and oceanic carbon is analyzed. The nondimensionalized model is a fast/slow system with one fast variable (corresponding to ice volume) and two slow variables (corresponding to the two carbon stores). Geometric singular perturbation theory is used to demonstrate the existence of a folded node singularity. A parameter regime is found in which (singular) trajectories that pass through the folded node are returned to the singular funnel in the limiting case where $\epsilon = 0$. In this parameter regime, the model has a stable periodic orbit of type $1^s$ for some $s>0$. To our knowledge, it is the first conceptual climate model demonstrated to have the capability to produce an MMO pattern.Comment: 28 pages, 11 figure

Data assimilation using adaptive, non-conservative, moving mesh models

Numerical models solved on adaptive moving meshes have become increasingly prevalent in recent years. Motivating problems include the study of fluids in a Lagrangian frame and the presence of highly localized structures such as shock waves or interfaces. In the former case, Lagrangian solvers move the nodes of the mesh with the dynamical flow; in the latter, mesh resolution is increased in the proximity of the localized structure. Mesh adaptation can include remeshing, a procedure that adds or removes mesh nodes according to specific rules reflecting constraints in the numerical solver. In this case, the number of mesh nodes will change during the integration and, as a result, the dimension of the model's state vector will not be conserved. This work presents a novel approach to the formulation of ensemble data assimilation (DA) for models with this underlying computational structure. The challenge lies in the fact that remeshing entails a different state space dimension across members of the ensemble, thus impeding the usual computation of consistent ensemble-based statistics. Our methodology adds one forward and one backward mapping step before and after the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) analysis, respectively. This mapping takes all the ensemble members onto a fixed, uniform reference mesh where the EnKF analysis can be performed. We consider a high-resolution (HR) and a low-resolution (LR) fixed uniform reference mesh, whose resolutions are determined by the remeshing tolerances. This way the reference meshes embed the model numerical constraints and are also upper and lower uniform meshes bounding the resolutions of the individual ensemble meshes. Numerical experiments are carried out using 1-D prototypical models: Burgers and Kuramoto–Sivashinsky equations and both Eulerian and Lagrangian synthetic observations. While the HR strategy generally outperforms that of LR, their skill difference can be reduced substantially by an optimal tuning of the data assimilation parameters. The LR case is appealing in high dimensions because of its lower computational burden. Lagrangian observations are shown to be very effective in that fewer of them are able to keep the analysis error at a level comparable to the more numerous observers for the Eulerian case. This study is motivated by the development of suitable EnKF strategies for 2-D models of the sea ice that are numerically solved on a Lagrangian mesh with remeshing

Domestication as innovation : the entanglement of techniques, technology and chance in the domestication of cereal crops

The origins of agriculture involved pathways of domestication in which human behaviours and plant genetic adaptations were entangled. These changes resulted in consequences that were unintended at the start of the process. This paper highlights some of the key innovations in human behaviours, such as soil preparation, harvesting and threshing, and how these were coupled with genetic ‘innovations’ within plant populations. We identify a number of ‘traps’ for early cultivators, including the needs for extra labour expenditure on crop-processing and soil fertility maintenance, but also linked gains in terms of potential crop yields. Compilations of quantitative data across a few different crops for the traits of nonshattering and seed size are discussed in terms of the apparently slow process of domestication, and parallels and differences between different regional pathways are identified. We highlight the need to bridge the gap between a Neolithic archaeobotanical focus on domestication and a focus of later periods on crop-processing activities and labour organization. In addition, archaeobotanical data provide a basis for rethinking previous assumptions about how plant genetic data should be related to the origins of agriculture and we contrast two alternative hypotheses: gradual evolution with low selection pressure versus metastable equilibrium that prolonged the persistence of ‘semi-domesticated’ populations. Our revised understanding of the innovations involved in plant domestication highlight the need for new approaches to collecting, modelling and integrating genetic data and archaeobotanical evidence

Positive youth development in swimming: clarification and consensus of key psychosocial assets

The purpose of this study was to gain a more cohesive understanding of the assets considered necessary to develop in young swimmers to ensure both individual and sport specific development. This two stage study involved (a) a content analysis of key papers to develop a list of both psychosocial skills for performance enhancement and assets associated with positive youth development, and (b) in-depth interviews involving ten expert swim coaches, practitioners and youth sport scholars. Five higher order categories containing seventeen individual assets emerged. These results are discussed in relation to both existing models of positive youth development and implications for coaches, practitioners and parents when considering the psychosocial development of young British swimmers

The academic backbone: longitudinal continuities in educational achievement from secondary school and medical school to MRCP(UK) and the specialist register in UK medical students and doctors

Background: Selection of medical students in the UK is still largely based on prior academic achievement, although doubts have been expressed as to whether performance in earlier life is predictive of outcomes later in medical school or post-graduate education. This study analyses data from five longitudinal studies of UK medical students and doctors from the early 1970s until the early 2000s. Two of the studies used the AH5, a group test of general intelligence (that is, intellectual aptitude). Sex and ethnic differences were also analyzed in light of the changing demographics of medical students over the past decades. Methods: Data from five cohort studies were available: the Westminster Study (began clinical studies from 1975 to 1982), the 1980, 1985, and 1990 cohort studies (entered medical school in 1981, 1986, and 1991), and the University College London Medical School (UCLMS) Cohort Study (entered clinical studies in 2005 and 2006). Different studies had different outcome measures, but most had performance on basic medical sciences and clinical examinations at medical school, performance in Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians (MRCP(UK)) examinations, and being on the General Medical Council Specialist Register. Results: Correlation matrices and path analyses are presented. There were robust correlations across different years at medical school, and medical school performance also predicted MRCP(UK) performance and being on the GMC Specialist Register. A-levels correlated somewhat less with undergraduate and post-graduate performance, but there was restriction of range in entrants. General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE)/O-level results also predicted undergraduate and post-graduate outcomes, but less so than did A-level results, but there may be incremental validity for clinical and post-graduate performance. The AH5 had some significant correlations with outcome, but they were inconsistent. Sex and ethnicity also had predictive effects on measures of educational attainment, undergraduate, and post-graduate performance. Women performed better in assessments but were less likely to be on the Specialist Register. Non-white participants generally underperformed in undergraduate and post-graduate assessments, but were equally likely to be on the Specialist Register. There was a suggestion of smaller ethnicity effects in earlier studies. Conclusions: The existence of the Academic Backbone concept is strongly supported, with attainment at secondary school predicting performance in undergraduate and post-graduate medical assessments, and the effects spanning many years. The Academic Backbone is conceptualized in terms of the development of more sophisticated underlying structures of knowledge ('cognitive capital’ and 'medical capital’). The Academic Backbone provides strong support for using measures of educational attainment, particularly A-levels, in student selection

Study of Constrained Minimal Supersymmetry

Taking seriously phenomenological indications for supersymmetry, we have made a detailed study of unified minimal SUSY, including effects at the few percent level in a consistent fashion. We report here a general analysis without choosing a particular unification gauge group. We find that the encouraging SUSY unification results of recent years do survive the challenge of a more complete and accurate analysis. Taking into account effects at the 5-10% level leads to several improvements of previous results, and allows us to sharpen our predictions for SUSY in the light of unification. We perform a thorough study of the parameter space. The results form a well-defined basis for comparing the physics potential of different facilities. Very little of the acceptable parameter space has been excluded by LEP or FNAL so far, but a significant fraction can be covered when these accelerators are upgraded. A number of initial applications to the understanding of the SUSY spectrum, detectability of SUSY at LEP II or FNAL, BR($b\to s\gamma$), Width($Z\to b\bar b$), dark matter, etc, are included in a separate section. We formulate an approach to extracting SUSY parameters from data when superpartners are detected. For small tan(beta) or large $m_top$ both $M_half$ and $M_0$ are entirely bounded from above at O(1 tev) without having to use a fine-tuning constraint.Comment: Michigan preprint UM-TH-93-24, LaTeX, 60 pages without figures. Complete paper with inline figures available by anonymous ftp to williams.physics.lsa.umich.edu in /pub/preprints/UM-TH-93-24.ps.Z (uncompresses to 10MB / 77 pages), or by e-mailing reques

Evaluation of mobile learning: Students' experiences in a new rural-based medical school

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mobile learning (ML) is an emerging educational method with success dependent on many factors including the ML device, physical infrastructure and user characteristics. At Gippsland Medical School (GMS), students are given a laptop at the commencement of their four-year degree. We evaluated the educational impact of the ML program from students' perspectives.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Questionnaires and individual interviews explored students' experiences of ML. All students were invited to complete questionnaires. Convenience sampling was used for interviews. Quantitative data was entered to SPSS 17.0 and descriptive statistics computed. Free text comments from questionnaires and transcriptions of interviews were thematically analysed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Fifty students completed the questionnaire (response rate 88%). Six students participated in interviews. More than half the students owned a laptop prior to commencing studies, would recommend the laptop and took the laptop to GMS daily. Modal daily use of laptops was four hours. Most frequent use was for access to the internet and email while the most frequently used applications were Microsoft Word and PowerPoint. Students appreciated the laptops for several reasons. The reduced financial burden was valued. Students were largely satisfied with the laptop specifications. Design elements of teaching spaces limited functionality. Although students valued aspects of the virtual learning environment (VLE), they also made many suggestions for improvement.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Students reported many educational benefits from school provision of laptops. In particular, the quick and easy access to electronic educational resources as and when they were needed. Improved design of physical facilities would enhance laptop use together with a more logical layout of the VLE, new computer-based resources and activities promoting interaction.</p

Ecological implications of a flower size/number trade-off in tropical forest trees

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