On the use of the Cauchy distribution to describe price fluctuations in R&D and other forms of real assets

An improved model for describing the returns of assets that result from R&D efforts is needed. Such a model may lead to better decision support tools to monetize the value of R&D activities for both public and private sector technology managers. Real option pricing methodologies are often used to gauge appropriate funding levels for assets such as R&D projects that contain large time-dependent uncertainties. A study of the commonly used Black-Scholes equation finds that the Gaussian distribution assumption used to describe the behaviour of the underlying assets’ fluctuations is not appropriate for R&D. This conclusion is based on a study of 43 military R&D projects and 100 micro-cap technology intensive small firms. A power law, such as the Cauchy distribution, is shown to be more accurate in describing fluctuations in returns on R&D investments. Using historical data we find that the Cauchy distribution is a better representation of the underlying assets’ behaviour in military R&D projects and in technology intensive firms with small market capitalization (i.e., single project firms that are commercializing R&D)

Linking the Value Assessment of Oil and Gas Firms to Ambidexterity Theory Using a Mixture of Normal Distributions

Oil and gas exploration and production firms have return profiles that are not easily explained by current financial theory – the variation in their market returns is non-Gaussian. In this paper, the nature and underlying reason for these significant deviations from expected behavior are considered. Understanding these differences in financial market behavior is important for a wide range of reasons, including: assessing investments, investor relations, decisions to raise capital, assessment of firm and management performance. We show that using a “thicker tailed” mixture of two normal distributions offers a significantly more accurate model than the traditionally Gaussian approach in describing the behavior of the value of oil and gas firms. This mixture of normal distribution is also more effective in bridging the gap between management theory and practice without the need to introduce complex time-sensitive GARCH and/or jump diffusion dynamics. The mixture distribution is consistent with ambidexterity theory that suggests firms operate in two distinct states driven by the primary focus of the firm: an exploration state with high uncertainty and, an exploitation (or production) state with lower uncertainty. The findings have direct implications on improving the accuracy of real option pricing techniques and futures analysis of risk management. Traditional options pricing models assume that commercial returns from these assets are described by a normal random walk. However, a normal random walk model discounts the possibility of large changes to the marketplace from events such as the discovery of important reserves or the introduction of new technology. The mixture distribution proves to be well suited to inherently describe the unusually large risks and opportunities associated with oil and gas production and exploration. A significance testing study of 554 oil and gas exploration and production firms empirically supports using a mixture distribution grounded in ambidexterity theory to describe the value fluctuations for these firms

Biochemical adaptations of the retina and retinal pigment epithelium support a metabolic ecosystem in the vertebrate eye

Here we report multiple lines of evidence for a comprehensive model of energy metabolism in the vertebrate eye. Metabolic flux, locations of key enzymes, and our finding that glucose enters mouse and zebrafish retinas mostly through photoreceptors support a conceptually new model for retinal metabolism. In this model, glucose from the choroidal blood passes through the retinal pigment epithelium to the retina where photoreceptors convert it to lactate. Photoreceptors then export the lactate as fuel for the retinal pigment epithelium and for neighboring Mu ̈ ller glial cells. We used human retinal epithelial cells to show that lactate can suppress consumption of glucose by the retinal pigment epithelium. Suppression of glucose consumption in the retinal pigment epithelium can increase the amount of glucose that reaches the retina. This framework for understanding metabolic relationships in the vertebrate retina provides new insights into the underlying causes of retinal disease and age-related vision loss

Association of alpha-aminoadipic acid with cardiometabolic risk factors in healthy and high-risk individuals

IntroductionPlasma levels of the metabolite alpha-aminoadipic acid (2-AAA) have been associated with risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and atherosclerosis. However, little is known about the relationship of 2-AAA to other cardiometabolic risk markers in pre-disease states, or in the setting of comorbid disease.MethodsWe measured circulating 2-AAA using two methods in 1) a sample of 261 healthy individuals (2-AAA Study), and 2) in a sample of 134 persons comprising 110 individuals with treated HIV, with or without T2D, a population at high risk of metabolic disease and cardiovascular events despite suppression of circulating virus, and 24 individuals with T2D without HIV (HATIM Study). We examined associations between plasma 2-AAA and markers of cardiometabolic health within each cohort.Results and discussionWe observed differences in 2-AAA by sex and race in both cohorts, with higher levels observed in men compared with women, and in Asian compared with Black or white individuals (P<0.05). There was no significant difference in 2-AAA by HIV status within individuals with T2D in the HATIM Study. We confirmed associations between 2-AAA and dyslipidemia in both cohorts, where high 2-AAA associated with low HDL cholesterol (P<0.001) and high triglycerides (P<0.05). As expected, within the cohort of people with HIV, 2-AAA was higher in the setting of T2D compared to pre-diabetes or normoglycemia (P<0.001). 2-AAA was positively associated with body mass index (BMI) in the 2-AAA Study, and with waist circumference and measures of visceral fat volume in HATIM (all P<0.05). Further, 2-AAA associated with increased liver fat in persons with HIV (P<0.001). Our study confirms 2-AAA as a marker of cardiometabolic risk in both healthy individuals and those at high cardiometabolic risk, reveals relationships with adiposity and hepatic steatosis, and highlights important differences by sex and race. Further studies are warranted to establish molecular mechanisms linking 2-AAA to disease in other high-risk populations

Harmonizing and improving European education in prescribing: An overview of digital educational resources used in clinical pharmacology and therapeutics

Aim: Improvement and harmonization of European clinical pharmacology and therapeutics (CPT) education is urgently required. Because digital educational resources can be easily shared, adapted to local situations and re-used widely across a variety of educational systems, they may be ideally suited for this purpose. Methods: With a cross-sectional survey among principal CPT teachers in 279 out of 304 European medical schools, an overview and classification of digital resources was compiled. Results: Teachers from 95 (34%) medical schools in 26 of 28 EU countries responded, 66 (70%) of whom used digital educational resources in their CPT curriculum. A total of 89 of such resources were described in detail, including e-learning (24%), simulators to teach pharmacokinetics and/or pharmacodynamics (10%), virtual patients (8%), and serious games (5%). Together, these resources covered 235 knowledge-based learning objectives, 88 skills, and 13 attitudes. Only one third (27) of the resources were in-part or totally free and only two were licensed open educational resources (free to use, distribute and adapt). A narrative overview of the largest, free and most novel resources is given. Conclusion: Digital educational resources, ranging from e-learning to virtual patients and games, are widely used for CPT education in EU medical schools. Learning objectives are based largely on knowledge rather than skills or attitudes. This may be improved by including more real-life clinical case scenarios. Moreover, the majority of resources are neither free nor open. Therefore, with a view to harmonizing international CPT education, more needs to be learned about why CPT teachers are not currently sharing their educational materials

EurOP2E – the European Open Platform for Prescribing Education, a consensus study among clinical pharmacology and therapeutics teachers

Purpose Sharing and developing digital educational resources and open educational resources has been proposed as a way to harmonize and improve clinical pharmacology and therapeutics (CPT) education in European medical schools. Previous research, however, has shown that there are barriers to the adoption and implementation of open educational resources. The aim of this study was to determine perceived opportunities and barriers to the use and creation of open educational resources among European CPT teachers and possible solutions for these barriers. Methods CPT teachers of British and EU medical schools completed an online survey. Opportunities and challenges were identified by thematic analyses and subsequently discussed in an international consensus meeting. Results Data from 99 CPT teachers from 95 medical schools were analysed. Thirty teachers (30.3%) shared or collaboratively produced digital educational resources. All teachers foresaw opportunities in the more active use of open educational resources, including improving the quality of their teaching. The challenges reported were language barriers, local differences, lack of time, technological issues, difficulties with quality management, and copyright restrictions. Practical solutions for these challenges were discussed and include a peer review system, clear indexing, and use of copyright licenses that permit adaptation of resources. Conclusion Key challenges to making greater use of CPT open educational resources are a limited applicability of such resources due to language and local differences and quality concerns. These challenges may be resolved by relatively simple measures, such as allowing adaptation and translation of resources and a peer review system

A Large-Scale Rheumatoid Arthritis Genetic Study Identifies Association at Chromosome 9q33.2

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic, systemic autoimmune disease affecting both joints and extra-articular tissues. Although some genetic risk factors for RA are well-established, most notably HLA-DRB1 and PTPN22, these markers do not fully account for the observed heritability. To identify additional susceptibility loci, we carried out a multi-tiered, case-control association study, genotyping 25,966 putative functional SNPs in 475 white North American RA patients and 475 matched controls. Significant markers were genotyped in two additional, independent, white case-control sample sets (661 cases/1322 controls from North America and 596 cases/705 controls from The Netherlands) identifying a SNP, rs1953126, on chromosome 9q33.2 that was significantly associated with RA (ORcommon = 1.28, trend Pcomb = 1.45E-06). Through a comprehensive fine-scale-mapping SNP-selection procedure, 137 additional SNPs in a 668 kb region from MEGF9 to STOM on 9q33.2 were chosen for follow-up genotyping in a staged-approach. Significant single marker results (Pcomb<0.01) spanned a large 525 kb region from FBXW2 to GSN. However, a variety of analyses identified SNPs in a 70 kb region extending from the third intron of PHF19 across TRAF1 into the TRAF1-C5 intergenic region, but excluding the C5 coding region, as the most interesting (trend Pcomb: 1.45E-06 → 5.41E-09). The observed association patterns for these SNPs had heightened statistical significance and a higher degree of consistency across sample sets. In addition, the allele frequencies for these SNPs displayed reduced variability between control groups when compared to other SNPs. Lastly, in combination with the other two known genetic risk factors, HLA-DRB1 and PTPN22, the variants reported here generate more than a 45-fold RA-risk differential

Update of the ICUD-SIU consultation on upper tract urothelial carcinoma 2016: treatment of low-risk upper tract urothelial carcinoma

Introduction The conservative management of upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) has historically been offered to patients with imperative indications. The recent International Consultation on Urologic Diseases (ICUD) publication on UTUC stratified treatment allocations based on high- and low-risk groups. This report updates the conservative management of the low-risk group. Methods The ICUD for low-risk UTUC working group performed a thorough review of the literature with an assessment of the level of evidence and grade of recommendation for a variety of published studies in this disease space. We update these publications and provide a summary of that original report. Results There are no prospective randomized controlled studies to support surgical management guidelines. A risk-stratified approach based on clinical, endoscopic, and biopsy assessment allows selection of patients who could benefit from kidney-preserving procedures with oncological outcomes potentially similar to radical nephroureterectomy with bladder cuff excision, with the added benefit of renal function preservation. These treatments are aided by the development of high-definition flexible digital URS, multi-biopsies with the aid of access sheaths and other tools, and promising developments in the use of adjuvant topical therapy. Conclusions Recent developments in imaging, minimally invasive techniques, multimodality approaches, and adjuvant topical regimens and bladder cancer prevention raise the hope for improved risk stratification and may greatly improve the endoscopic treatment for low-risk UTUC