Development and validation of a prediction model for fat mass in children and adolescents: Meta-analysis using individual participant data

© Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to. To develop and validate a prediction model for fat mass in children aged 4-15 years using routinely available risk factors of height, weight, and demographic information without the need for more complex forms of assessment. Design Individual participant data meta-analysis. Setting Four population based cross sectional studies and a fifth study for external validation, United Kingdom. Participants A pooled derivation dataset (four studies) of 2375 children and an external validation dataset of 176 children with complete data on anthropometric measurements and deuterium dilution assessments of fat mass. Main outcome measure Multivariable linear regression analysis, using backwards selection for inclusion of predictor variables and allowing non-linear relations, was used to develop a prediction model for fat-free mass (and subsequently fat mass by subtracting resulting estimates from weight) based on the four studies. Internal validation and then internal-external cross validation were used to examine overfitting and generalisability of the model\u27s predictive performance within the four development studies; external validation followed using the fifth dataset. Results Model derivation was based on a multi-ethnic population of 2375 children (47.8% boys, n=1136) aged 4-15 years. The final model containing predictor variables of height, weight, age, sex, and ethnicity had extremely high predictive ability (optimism adjusted R 2: 94.8%, 95% confidence interval 94.4% to 95.2%) with excellent calibration of observed and predicted values. The internal validation showed minimal overfitting and good model generalisability, with excellent calibration and predictive performance. External validation in 176 children aged 11-12 years showed promising generalisability of the model (R 2: 90.0%, 95% confidence interval 87.2% to 92.8%) with good calibration of observed and predicted fat mass (slope: 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.97 to 1.07). The mean difference between observed and predicted fat mass was -1.29 kg (95% confidence interval -1.62 to -0.96 kg). Conclusion The developed model accurately predicted levels of fat mass in children aged 4-15 years. The prediction model is based on simple anthropometric measures without the need for more complex forms of assessment and could improve the accuracy of assessments for body fatness in children (compared with those provided by body mass index) for effective surveillance, prevention, and management of clinical and public health obesity

Health outcomes, pathogenesis and epidemiology of severe acute malnutrition (HOPE-SAM): rationale and methods of a longitudinal observational study

Introduction: Mortality among children hospitalised for complicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) remains high despite the implementation of WHO guidelines, particularly in settings of high HIV prevalence. Children continue to be at high risk of morbidity, mortality and relapse after discharge from hospital although long-term outcomes are not well documented. Better understanding the pathogenesis of SAM and the factors associated with poor outcomes may inform new therapeutic interventions. Methods and analysis: The Health Outcomes, Pathogenesis and Epidemiology of Severe Acute Malnutrition (HOPE-SAM) study is a longitudinal observational cohort that aims to evaluate the short-term and long-term clinical outcomes of HIV-positive and HIV-negative children with complicated SAM, and to identify the risk factors at admission and discharge from hospital that independently predict poor outcomes. Children aged 0–59 months hospitalised for SAM are being enrolled at three tertiary hospitals in Harare, Zimbabwe and Lusaka, Zambia. Longitudinal mortality, morbidity and nutritional data are being collected at admission, discharge and for 48 weeks post discharge. Nested laboratory substudies are exploring the role of enteropathy, gut microbiota, metabolomics and cellular immune function in the pathogenesis of SAM using stool, urine and blood collected from participants and from well-nourished controls

Greater male variability in daily energy expenditure develops through puberty

There is considerably greater variation in metabolic rates between men than between women, in terms of basal, activity and total (daily) energy expenditure (EE). One possible explanation is that EE is associated with male sexual characteristics (which are known to vary more than other traits) such as musculature and athletic capacity. Such traits might be predicted to be most prominent during periods of adolescence and young adulthood, when sexual behaviour develops and peaks. We tested this hypothesis on a large dataset by comparing the amount of male variation and female variation in total EE, activity EE and basal EE, at different life stages, along with several morphological traits: height, fat free mass and fat mass. Total EE, and to some degree also activity EE, exhibit considerable greater male variation (GMV) in young adults, and then a decrease in the degree of GMV in progressively older individuals. Arguably, basal EE, and also morphometrics, do not exhibit this pattern. These findings suggest that single male sexual characteristics may not exhibit peak GMV in young adulthood, however total and perhaps also activity EE, associated with many morphological and physiological traits combined, do exhibit GMV most prominently during the reproductive life stages

Low birthweight is associated with a higher incidence of type 2 diabetes over two decades independent of adult BMI and genetic predisposition

Aims/hypothesis: Low birthweight is a risk factor for type 2 diabetes. Most previous studies are based on cross-sectional prevalence data, not designed to study the timing of onset of type 2 diabetes in relation to birthweight. We aimed to examine associations of birthweight with age-specific incidence rate of type 2 diabetes in middle-aged to older adults over two decades. Methods: Adults aged 30–60 years enrolled in the Danish Inter99 cohort in 1999–2001 (baseline examination), with information on birthweight from original birth records from 1939–1971 and without diabetes at baseline, were eligible. Birth records were linked with individual-level data on age at diabetes diagnosis and key covariates. Incidence rates of type 2 diabetes as a function of age, sex and birthweight were modelled using Poisson regression, adjusting for prematurity status at birth, parity, polygenic scores for birthweight and type 2 diabetes, maternal and paternal diabetes history, socioeconomic status and adult BMI. Results: In 4590 participants there were 492 incident type 2 diabetes cases during a mean follow-up of 19 years. Type 2 diabetes incidence rate increased with age, was higher in male participants, and decreased with increasing birthweight (incidence rate ratio [95% CI per 1 kg increase in birthweight] 0.60 [0.48, 0.75]). The inverse association of birthweight with type 2 diabetes incidence was statistically significant across all models and in sensitivity analysis. Conclusions/interpretation: A lower birthweight was associated with increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes independent of adult BMI and genetic risk of type 2 diabetes and birthweight. Graphical Abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.