Short term wind power forecasting using hybrid intelligent systems

This panel paper summarizes the current trends in wind power development and describes a proposed approach for short term wind power forecasting using a hybrid intelligent system

Larvae Of Diploprion-bifasciatum, Belonoperca-chabanaudi And Grammistes-sexlineatus (Serranidae, Epinephelinae) With A Comparison Of Known Larvae Of Other Epinephelines

Morphology is described for larvae of two species of the epinepheline serranid tribe Diploprionini and one of the tribe Grammistini, and known larvae of other epinephelines are compared. Early stage eggs and development of larvae of Diploprion bifasciatum are described from 144 laboratory-reared specimens, and postflexion larvae of Belonoperca chabanaudi are described from wild-caught specimens. Fourmanoir\u27s (1976) description of postlarval Grammistes sexlineatus is modified and expanded. The second and third dorsal-fin spines of larval D. bifasciatum are remarkably elongate, reaching lengths many times that of the body. These spines are thin and flexible, and each is encased in a sheath of tissue that exhibits patterns of pigment that change ontogenetically. Larvae of Belonoperca have several elongate dorsalfin spines that may attain lengths comparable to those of the second and third dorsal spines of D. bifasciatum; however, only net-collected specimens in which the spines are broken are available. With these descriptions of larval diploprionins, larvae of representatives of all epinepheline tribes are known. Larval epinephelines differ in patterns of pigmentation, head spination, sequence of fin formation and morphology of elongate dorsal spines. The considerable morphological diversity among epinepheline larvae may aid in elucidating the phylogeny of the subfamily

Editorial: crime patterns in time and space: the dynamics of crime opportunities in urban areas

The routine activity approach and associated crime pattern theory emphasise how crime emerges from spatio-temporal routines. In order to understand this crime should be studied in both space and time. However, the bulk of research into crime patterns and related activities has investigated the spatial distributions of crime, neglecting the temporal dimension. Specifically, disaggregation of crime by place and by time, for example hour of day, day of week, month of year, season, or school day versus none school day, is extremely relevant to theory. Modern data make such spatio-temporal disaggregation increasingly feasible, as exemplified in this special issue. First, much larger data files allow disaggregation of crime data into temporal and spatial slices. Second, new forms of data are generated by modern technologies, allowing innovative and new forms of analyses. Crime pattern analyses and routine activity inquiries are now able to explore avenues not previously available. The unique collection of nine papers in this thematic issue specifically examine spatio-temporal patterns of crime to; demonstrate the value of this approach for advancing knowledge in the field; consider how this informs our theoretical understanding of the manifestations of crime in time and space; to consider the prevention implications of this; and to raise awareness of the need for further spatio-temporal research into crime event

The challenges of analyzing behavioral response study data : an overview of the MOCHA (Multi-study OCean acoustics Human effects Analysis) project

Date of Acceptance:This paper describes the MOCHA project which aims to develop novel approaches for the analysis of data collected during Behavioral Response Studies (BRSs). BRSs are experiments aimed at directly quantifying the effects of controlled dosages of natural or anthropogenic stimuli (typically sound) on marine mammal behavior. These experiments typically result in low sample size, relative to variability, and so we are looking at a number of studies in combination to maximize the gain from each one. We describe a suite of analytical tools applied to BRS data on beaked whales, including a simulation study aimed at informing future experimental design.Postprin

Multiple sclerosis susceptibility alleles in African Americans.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune demyelinating disease characterized by complex genetics and multifaceted gene-environment interactions. Compared to whites, African Americans have a lower risk for developing MS, but African Americans with MS have a greater risk of disability. These differences between African Americans and whites may represent differences in genetic susceptibility and/or environmental factors. SNPs from 12 candidate genes have recently been identified and validated with MS risk in white populations. We performed a replication study using 918 cases and 656 unrelated controls to test whether these candidate genes are also associated with MS risk in African Americans. CD6, CLEC16a, EVI5, GPC5, and TYK2 contained SNPs that are associated with MS risk in the African American data set. EVI5 showed the strongest association outside the major histocompatibility complex (rs10735781, OR=1.233, 95% CI=1.06-1.43, P-value=0.006). In addition, RGS1 seems to affect age of onset whereas TNFRSF1A seems to be associated with disease progression. None of the tested variants showed results that were statistically inconsistent with the effects established in whites. The results are consistent with shared disease genetic mechanisms among individuals of European and African ancestry

Digit-only sauropod pes trackways from China - evidence of swimming or a preservational phenomenon?

For more than 70 years unusual sauropod trackways have played a pivotal role in debates about the swimming ability of sauropods. Most claims that sauropods could swim have been based on manus-only or manus-dominated trackways. However none of these incomplete trackways has been entirely convincing, and most have proved to be taphonomic artifacts, either undertracks or the result of differential depth of penetration of manus and pes tracks, but otherwise showed the typical pattern of normal walking trackways. Here we report an assemblage of unusual sauropod tracks from the Lower Cretaceous Hekou Group of Gansu Province, northern China, characterized by the preservation of only the pes claw traces, that we interpret as having been left by walking, not buoyant or swimming, individuals. They are interpreted as the result of animals moving on a soft mud-silt substrate, projecting their claws deeply to register their traces on an underlying sand layer where they gained more grip during progression. Other sauropod walking trackways on the same surface with both pes and manus traces preserved, were probably left earlier on relatively firm substrates that predated the deposition of soft mud and silt . Presently, there is no convincing evidence of swimming sauropods from their trackways, which is not to say that sauropods did not swim at all

Endoscopic ultrasound in the assessment of advanced duodenal adenomatosis in familial adenomatous polyposis

Objective Current surveillance strategies for duodenal adenomatosis in familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) miss malignancies and underestimate cancer risk in ampullary disease. This study aimed to evaluate the utility of endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) in the assessment of FAP patients with duodenal and/or ampullary polyposis referred for surgical intervention. Design A retrospective analysis of FAP patients undergoing index EUS between December 2006 and May 2015 was performed. Follow-up was completed in January 2018, including review of all EUS procedures and surgical interventions (median follow-up 6 years). Results Fifty-five patients underwent 188 EUS procedures. Six patients (11%) developed malignancy (three duodenal, three ampullary). Ampullary cancer risk was underestimated by Spigelman stage and overestimated by Kashiwagi classification. Ultrasound findings were poor predictors of malignancy, with common bile duct dilatation being the only finding present in one EUS prior to a diagnosis of ampullary cancer. The best predictors of ampullary malignancy were an ampullary polyp size >3 cm and an increase >1 cm in ampullary polyp size. Ampullary polyp size >3 cm provided the best predictive value, correctly identifying two of the three cases of ampullary cancer and both patients with high-grade dysplasia. EUS biopsy failed to detect malignancy later confirmed by surgical histology in two patients. Conclusion EUS surveillance confers little additional benefit to standard endoscopic surveillance in FAP patients. The best predictor of ampullary malignancy is an ampullary polyp >3 cm; this could be regarded as a relative indication for surgery