Construction of probabilistic event trees for eruption forecasting at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia 2013-14

Eruptions of Sinabung volcano, Indonesia have been ongoing since 2013. Since that time, the character of eruptions has changed, from phreatic to phreatomagmatic to magmatic explosive eruptions, and from production of a lava dome that collapsed to a subsequent thick lava flow that slowly ceased to be active, and later, to a new lava dome. As the eruption progressed, event trees were constructed to forecast eruptive behavior six times, with forecast windows that ranged from 2. weeks to 1. year: November 7-10, December 12-14, and December 27, 2013; and January 9-10, May 13, and October 7, 2014. These event trees were successful in helping to frame the forecast scenarios, to collate current monitoring information, and to document outstanding questions and unknowns. The highest probability forecasts closely matched outcomes of eruption size (including extrusion of the first dome), production of pyroclastic density currents, and pyroclastic density current runout distances. Events assigned low probabilities also occurred, including total collapse of the lava dome in January 2014 and production of a small blast pyroclastic density current in February 2014

Primitive layered gabbros from fast-spreading lower oceanic crust

Three-quarters of the oceanic crust formed at fast-spreading ridges is composed of plutonic rocks whose mineral assemblages, textures and compositions record the history of melt transport and crystallization between the mantle and the sea floor. Despite the importance of these rocks, sampling them in situ is extremely challenging owing to the overlying dykes and lavas. This means that models for understanding the formation of the lower crust are based largely on geophysical studies and ancient analogues (ophiolites) that did not form at typical mid-ocean ridges. Here we describe cored intervals of primitive, modally layered gabbroic rocks from the lower plutonic crust formed at a fast-spreading ridge, sampled by the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program at the Hess Deep rift. Centimetre-scale, modally layered rocks, some of which have a strong layering-parallel foliation, confirm a long-held belief that such rocks are a key constituent of the lower oceanic crust formed at fast-spreading ridges. Geochemical analysis of these primitive lower plutonic rocks-in combination with previous geochemical data for shallow-level plutonic rocks, sheeted dykes and lavas-provides the most completely constrained estimate of the bulk composition of fast-spreading oceanic crust so far. Simple crystallization models using this bulk crustal composition as the parental melt accurately predict the bulk composition of both the lavas and the plutonic rocks. However, the recovered plutonic rocks show early crystallization of orthopyroxene, which is not predicted by current models of melt extraction from the mantle and mid-ocean-ridge basalt differentiation. The simplest explanation of this observation is that compositionally diverse melts are extracted from the mantle and partly crystallize before mixing to produce the more homogeneous magmas that erupt

Batch effect exerts a bigger influence on the rat urinary metabolome and gut microbiota than uraemia: a cautionary tale

Background: Rodent models are invaluable for studying biological processes in the context of whole organisms. The reproducibility of such research is based on an assumption of metabolic similarity between experimental animals, controlled for by breeding and housing strategies that minimise genetic and environmental variation. Here, we set out to demonstrate the effect of experimental uraemia on the rat urinary metabolome and gut microbiome but found instead that the effect of vendor shipment batch was larger in both areas than that of uraemia. Results: Twenty four Wistar rats obtained from the same commercial supplier in two separate shipment batches underwent either subtotal nephrectomy or sham procedures. All animals undergoing subtotal nephrectomy developed an expected uraemic phenotype. The urinary metabolome was studied using 1 H-NMR spectroscopy and found to vary significantly between animals from different batches, with substantial differences in concentrations of a broad range of substances including lactate, acetate, glucose, amino acids, amines and benzoate derivatives. In animals from one batch, there was a complete absence of the microbiome-associated urinary metabolite hippurate, which was present in significant concentrations in animals from the other batch. These differences were so prominent that we would have drawn quite different conclusions about the effect of uraemia on urinary phenotype depending on which batch of animals we had used. Corresponding differences were seen in the gut microbiota between animals in different batches when assessed by the sequencing of 16S rRNA gene amplicons, with higher alpha diversity and different distributions of Proteobacteria subtaxa and short-chain fatty acid producing bacteria in the second batch compared to the first. Whilst we also demonstrated differences in both the urinary metabolome and gut microbiota associated with uraemia, these effects were smaller in size than those associated with shipment batch. Conclusions: These results challenge the assumption that experimental animals obtained from the same supplier are metabolically comparable, and provide metabolomic evidence that batch-to-batch variations in the microbiome of experimental animals are significant confounders in an experimental study. We discuss strategies for reducing such variability and the need for transparency in research publications about the supply of experimental animals

United States Geological Survey Bulletin 2021-D

From abstract: Information in this report supplements the geologic map of the Stanford Canyon quadrangle that provides chemical data, thin sections, and hand specimens for each of the samples collected in the quadrangle

United States Geological Survey Bulletin 2021-E

From introduction: This report supplements similar reports prepared for the four 7.5-minute quadrangles that cover the Turkey Creek caldera and geologic map of the caldera

Plagioclase Populations and Zoning in Dacite of the 2004–2005 Mount St. Helens Eruption: Constraints for Magma Origin and Dynamics

We investigated plagioclase phenocrysts in dacite of the 2004–5 eruption of Mount St. Helens to gain insights into the magmatic processes of the current eruption, which is char­acterized by prolonged, nearly solid-state extrusion, low gas emission, and shallow seismicity. In addition, we investigated plagioclase of 1980–86 dacite. Light and Nomarski microscopy were used to texturally characterize plagioclase crystals. Electron microprobe analy­ses measured their compositions. We systematically mapped and categorized all plagioclase phenocrysts in a preselected area according to the following criteria: (1) occurrence of zones of acicular orthopyroxene inclusions, (2) presence of dissolution surface(s), and (3) spatial association of 1 and 2. Phenocrysts fall into three main categories; one category con­tains four subcategories. The range of anorthite (An) content in 2004–5 plagio­clase is about An57–35 during the last 30–40 percent crystal­lization of plagioclase phenocrysts. Select microphenocrysts (10–50 μm) range from An30 to An42. Anorthite content is lowest near outermost rims of phenocrysts, but zonation pat­terns between interior and rim indicate variable trends that correlate with textural features. Crystals without dissolution surfaces (about 14 percent of total) show steadily decreas­ing An content outward to the crystal rim (outer ~80 μm). All other crystals are banded as a consequence of dissolu­tion; dissolution surfaces are band boundaries. Such crystals display normal outward An zoning within a single band that, following dissolution, is then overgrown abruptly by high-An material of the next band. Swarms of acicular orthopyroxene inclusions in plagioclase are characteristic of 2004–5 dacite. They occur mostly inward of dissolution surfaces, where band composition reaches lowest An content. The relative propor­tions of the three crystal types are distinctly different between 2004–5 dacite and 1980s dome dacite. We propose that crystals with no dissolution surfaces are those that were supplied last to the shallow reservoir, whereas plagioclase with increasingly more complex zoning patterns (that is, the number of zoned bands bounded by dissolution surfaces) result from prolonged residency and evolution in the reservoir. We propose that banding and An zoning across multiple bands are primarily a response to thermally induced fluctuations in crystallinity of the magma in combination with recharge; a lesser role is ascribed to cycling crystals through pressure gradients. Crystals without dissolution surfaces, in contrast, could have grown only in response to steady(?) decompression. Some heating-cooling cycles probably postdate the final eruption in 1986. They resulted from small recharge events that supplied new crystals that then experi­enced resorption-growth cycles. We suggest that magmatic events shortly prior to the current eruption, recorded in the outermost zones of plagioclase phenocrysts, began with the incorporation of acicular orthopyroxene, followed by last resorption, and concluded with crystallization of euhedral rims. Finally, we propose that 2004–5 dacite is composed mostly of dacite magma that remained after 1986 and under­went subsequent magmatic evolution but, more importantly, contains a component of new dacite from deeper in the mag­matic system, which may have triggered the new eruption

United States Geological Survey Bulletin 2021-A

From abstract: The information presented in this report supplements the geologic map of the Fife Peak quadrangle and supports ongoing investigations of the evolution of the Turkey Creek caldera

United States Geological Survey Bulletin 2021-B

From abstract: Information in this report supplements the geologic map of the Rustler Park quadrangle and supports ongoing investigations of the Turkey Creek caldera