The effects of disease on optimal forest rotation : a generalisable analytical framework

This work is from the project titled Modelling economic impact and strategies to increase resilience against tree disease outbreaks. This is one of seven projects in the Tree Health and Plant Biosecurity Initiative (phase 2) funded by BBSRC, Defra, ESRC, Forestry Commission, NERC and Scottish Government.The arrival of novel pathogens and pests can have a devastating effect on the market values of forests. Calibrating management strategies/decisions to consider the effect of disease may help to reduce disease impacts on forests. Here, we use a novel generalisable, bioeconomic model framework, which combines an epidemiological compartmental model with a Faustmann optimal rotation length model, to explore the management decision of when to harvest a single rotation, even-aged, plantation forest under varying disease conditions. Sensitivity analysis of the rate of spread of infection and the effect of disease on the timber value reveals a key trade-off between waiting for the timber to grow and the infection spreading further. We show that the optimal rotation length, which maximises the net present value of the forest, is reduced when timber from infected trees has no value; but when the infection spreads quickly, and the value of timber from infected trees is non-zero, it can be optimal to wait until the disease-free optimal rotation length to harvest. Our original approach provides an exemplar framework showing how a bioeconomic model can be used to examine the effect of tree diseases on management strategies/decisions.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Pronounced reproductive skew in a natural population of green swordtails, Xiphophorus helleri.

For many species in nature, a sire's progeny may be distributed among a few or many dams. This poses logistical challenges--typically much greater across males than across females--for assessing means and variances in mating success (number of mates) and reproductive success (number of progeny). Here we overcome these difficulties by exhaustively analyzing a population of green swordtail fish (Xiphophorus helleri) for genetic paternity (and maternity) using a suite of highly polymorphic microsatellite loci. Genetic analyses of 1476 progeny from 69 pregnant females and 158 candidate sires revealed pronounced skews in male reproductive success both within and among broods. These skews were statistically significant, greater than in females, and correlated in males but not in females with mating success. We also compare the standardized variances in swordtail reproductive success to the few such available estimates for other taxa, notably several mammal species with varied mating systems and degrees of sexual dimorphism. The comparison showed that the opportunity for selection on male X. helleri is among the highest yet reported in fishes, and it is intermediate compared to estimates available for mammals. This study is one of a few exhaustive genetic assessments of joint-sex parentage in a natural fish population, and results are relevant to the operation of sexual selection in this sexually dimorphic, high-fecundity species

Improving reintroduction success in large carnivores through individual-based modelling: How to reintroduce Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) to Scotland

Globally, large carnivores have been heavily affected by habitat loss, fragmentation and persecution, sometimes resulting in local extinctions. With increasing recognition of top-down trophic cascades and complex predator- prey dynamics, reintroductions are of growing interest for restoration of ecosystem functioning. Many re- introductions have however failed, in part due to poor planning and inability to model complex eco-evolutionary processes to give reliable predictions. Using the case study of Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), a large predator being considered for reintroduction to Scotland, we demonstrate how an individual-based model that integrates demography with three distinct phases of dispersal (emigration, transfer and settlement) can be used to explore the relative suitability of three geographically-distant potential reintroduction sites, multi-site reintroductions and two founding population sizes. For a single-site reintroduction of 10 lynx, our simulation results show a clear hierarchy of suitability across all metrics. Reintroduction in the Kintyre Peninsula (west coast) consistently performed best, with a probability of population persistence at year 100 of 83%, and the Scottish component of Kielder Forest (southern Scotland) worst, with only a 21% chance of population persistence to year 100. Simultaneous two-site reintroduction in the Kintyre Peninsula and in Aberdeenshire (near the east coast) of 32 lynx gave a 96% persistence at 100 years. Our model was highly sensitive to survival, particularly of adults, highlighting this parameter's importance for reintroduction success. The results strongly indicate the potential viability of Eurasian lynx reintroduction to Scotland given the current cover of suitable woodland habitat. More generally, our work demonstrates how emerging modelling approaches incorporating increased realism in re- presenting species' demography, ecology and dispersal can have high value for quick, inexpensive assessment of likely reintroduction success and for selection between alternative strategies.REF Compliant by Deposit in Stirling's Repositor

Neighbours matter and the weak succumb: Ash dieback infection is more severe in ash trees with fewer conspecific neighbours and lower prior growth rate

The epidemiology and severity of ash dieback (ADB), the disease caused by the ascomycete fungus Hymenoscyphus fraxineus, has been linked to a variety of site conditions; however, there has been a lack of analysis at an individual tree scale.Symptoms of ADB were scored on ca. 400 trees of Fraxinus excelsior (ash) in permanent sample plots during two successive years in a UK natural woodland reserve. Using comprehensive plot records maintained since 1945, and detailed spatial records updated since 1977, we assembled an array of potential explanatory variables, including site environment factors, ash tree density, previous and present tree condition and near neighbourhood summary statistics (NNSS), such as species mingling and size dominance. Their impact on the severity of ADB of focal ash trees was tested with generalised linear mixed effects models (GLMM).The severity of ADB was much greater in the lower slope parts of the site with moister soils and least in a managed area subject to tree thinning in the previous 35 years. Severity of ADB had a negative association with focal ash tree prior relative growth rate over a period of a decade immediately before the disease was detected at the site. Greater ADB severity was also significantly associated with smaller diameter at breast height of ash trees. Additionally, ADB was significantly positively associated with a greater proportion of heterospecific trees amongst the six nearest neighbours of the focal tree.Synthesis. The relationship of the severity of ADB disease with site environment, tree condition and neighbourhood is complex but nevertheless important in the progression of the disease. The findings suggest some silvicultural interventions, such as thinning to increase the vigour of retained ash trees, might reduce the impact of ADB

Estimation of Groundwater Recharge at Pahute Mesa using the Chloride Mass-Balance Method

Groundwater recharge on Pahute Mesa was estimated using the chloride mass-balance (CMB) method. This method relies on the conservative properties of chloride to trace its movement from the atmosphere as dry- and wet-deposition through the soil zone and ultimately to the saturated zone. Typically, the CMB method assumes no mixing of groundwater with different chloride concentrations; however, because groundwater is thought to flow into Pahute Mesa from valleys north of Pahute Mesa, groundwater flow rates (i.e., underflow) and chloride concentrations from Kawich Valley and Gold Flat were carefully considered. Precipitation was measured with bulk and tipping-bucket precipitation gauges installed for this study at six sites on Pahute Mesa. These data, along with historical precipitation amounts from gauges on Pahute Mesa and estimates from the PRISM model, were evaluated to estimate mean annual precipitation. Chloride deposition from the atmosphere was estimated by analyzing quarterly samples of wet- and dry-deposition for chloride in the bulk gauges and evaluating chloride wet-deposition amounts measured at other locations by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program. Mean chloride concentrations in groundwater were estimated using data from the UGTA Geochemistry Database, data from other reports, and data from samples collected from emplacement boreholes for this study. Calculations were conducted assuming both no underflow and underflow from Kawich Valley and Gold Flat. Model results estimate recharge to be 30 mm/yr with a standard deviation of 18 mm/yr on Pahute Mesa, for elevations >1800 m amsl. These estimates assume Pahute Mesa recharge mixes completely with underflow from Kawich Valley and Gold Flat. The model assumes that precipitation, chloride concentration in bulk deposition, underflow and its chloride concentration, have been constant over the length of time of recharge

Theta and high-frequency activity mark spontaneous recall of episodic memories.

Humans possess the remarkable ability to search their memory, allowing specific past episodes to be re-experienced spontaneously. Here, we administered a free recall test to 114 neurosurgical patients and used intracranial theta and high-frequency activity (HFA) to identify the spatiotemporal pattern of neural activity underlying spontaneous episodic retrieval. We found that retrieval evolved in three electrophysiological stages composed of: (1) early theta oscillations in the right temporal cortex, (2) increased HFA in the left hemisphere including the medial temporal lobe (MTL), left inferior frontal gyrus, as well as the ventrolateral temporal cortex, and (3) motor/language activation during vocalization of the retrieved item. Of these responses, increased HFA in the left MTL predicted recall performance. These results suggest that spontaneous recall of verbal episodic memories involves a spatiotemporal pattern of spectral changes across the brain; however, high-frequency activity in the left MTL represents a final common pathway of episodic retrieval

Characterization and Solution Structure of the Factor VIII C2 Domain in a Ternary Complex with Classical and Non-classical Inhibitor Antibodies

The most significant complication for patients with severe cases of congenital or acquired hemophilia A is the development of inhibitor antibodies against coagulation factor VIII (fVIII). The C2 domain of fVIII is a significant antigenic target of anti-fVIII antibodies. Here, we have utilized small angle x-ray scattering (SAXS) and biochemical techniques to characterize interactions between two different classes of anti-C2 domain inhibitor antibodies and the isolated C2 domain. Multiple assays indicated that antibodies 3E6 and G99 bind independently to the fVIII C2 domain and can form a stable ternary complex. SAXS-derived numerical estimates of dimensional parameters for all studied complexes agree with the proportions of the constituent proteins. Ab initio modeling of the SAXS data results in a long kinked structure of the ternary complex, showing an angle centered at the C2 domain of ∼130°. Guided by biochemical data, rigid body modeling of subunits into the molecular envelope of the ternary complex suggests that antibody 3E6 recognizes a C2 domain epitope consisting of the Arg2209–Ser2216 and Leu2178–Asp2187 loops. In contrast, antibody G99 recognizes the C2 domain primarily through the Pro2221–Trp2229 loop. These two epitopes are on opposing sides of the fVIII C2 domain, are consistent with the solvent accessibility in the context of the entire fVIII molecule, and provide further structural detail regarding the pathogenic immune response to fVIII

Apixaban for Stroke Prevention in Subclinical Atrial Fibrillation

Subclinical atrial fibrillation is short-lasting and asymptomatic and can usually be detected only by long-term continuous monitoring with pacemakers or defibrillators. Subclinical atrial fibrillation is associated with an increased risk of stroke by a factor of 2.5; however, treatment with oral anticoagulation is of uncertain benefit.We conducted a trial involving patients with subclinical atrial fibrillation lasting 6 minutes to 24 hours. Patients were randomly assigned in a double-blind, double-dummy design to receive apixaban at a dose of 5 mg twice daily (2.5 mg twice daily when indicated) or aspirin at a dose of 81 mg daily. The trial medication was discontinued and anticoagulation started if subclinical atrial fibrillation lasting more than 24 hours or clinical atrial fibrillation developed. The primary efficacy outcome, stroke or systemic embolism, was assessed in the intention-to-treat population (all the patients who had undergone randomization); the primary safety outcome, major bleeding, was assessed in the on-treatment population (all the patients who had undergone randomization and received at least one dose of the assigned trial drug, with follow-up censored 5 days after permanent discontinuation of trial medication for any reason).We included 4012 patients with a mean (±SD) age of 76.8±7.6 years and a mean CHA2DS2-VASc score of 3.9±1.1 (scores range from 0 to 9, with higher scores indicating a higher risk of stroke); 36.1% of the patients were women. After a mean follow-up of 3.5±1.8 years, stroke or systemic embolism occurred in 55 patients in the apixaban group (0.78% per patient-year) and in 86 patients in the aspirin group (1.24% per patient-year) (hazard ratio, 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.45 to 0.88; P = 0.007). In the on-treatment population, the rate of major bleeding was 1.71% per patient-year in the apixaban group and 0.94% per patient-year in the aspirin group (hazard ratio, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.26 to 2.57; P = 0.001). Fatal bleeding occurred in 5 patients in the apixaban group and 8 patients in the aspirin group.Among patients with subclinical atrial fibrillation, apixaban resulted in a lower risk of stroke or systemic embolism than aspirin but a higher risk of major bleeding. (Funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and others; ARTESIA ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01938248.)