I heard it through the grapevine : A Randomized Controlled Trial on the Direct and Vicarious Effects of Preventative Specific Deterrence Initiatives in Criminal Networks

A rich body of literature exists on deterrence, yet little is known about how deterrence messages are communicated through social networks. This is an important gap in our understanding, because such communication gives rise to the possibility that social institutions can utilize the vicarious effect of the threat of punishment against one individual to reduce the rate of reoffending amongst their criminal associates. To test this, we identified criminals with an extensive offending history (prolific offenders) and their co-offenders using social network analysis and then conducted a randomized controlled trial to measure the effect on both prolific offenders and their cooffenders of delivering a “specific deterrence” message. The treatment— preemptive engagements with prolific offenders by a police officer offering both ‘carrots’ (desistance pathways) and ‘sticks’ (increased sanction threat)—was applied to the prolific offenders, but not to their co-offenders. The outcomes suggest that a single officer–offender engagement leads to a crime suppression effect in all comparisons, with 21.3%, 11.0%, and 15.0% reductions for specific, vicarious, and total network deterrence effects, respectively. The findings suggest that (a) social network analysis based on in-house police records can be used to cartographically understand social networks of offenders, with an aim of preventing crime; (b) deterrence messages promulgated by the police have the capacity to reduce crime beyond what was previously assumed, as the cascading of threats in cooffending relationships carries a vicarious crime reduction impact; (c) unlike “reactive specific deterrence” (i.e., a threat of punishment following a specific and detected crime) which can have perverse effects on certain offenders, preventative specific deterrence is a promising crime policy

"I heard it through the grapevine": A Randomized Controlled Trial on the Direct and Vicarious Effects of Preventative Specific Deterrence Initiatives in Criminal Networks

A rich body of literature exists on deterrence, yet little is known about how deterrence messages are communicated through social networks. This is an important gap in our understanding, because such communication gives rise to the possibility that social institutions can utilize the vicarious effect of the threat of punishment against one individual to reduce the rate of reoffending amongst their criminal associates. To test this, we identified criminals with an extensive offending history (“prolific offenders”) and their co-offenders using social network analysis and then conducted a randomized controlled trial to measure the effect on both prolific offenders and their co-offenders of delivering a “specific deterrence” message. The treatment—preemptive engagements with prolific offenders by a police officer offering both ‘carrots’ (desistance pathways) and ‘sticks’ (increased sanction threat)—was applied to the prolific offenders, but not to their co-offenders. The outcomes suggest that a single officer–offender engagement leads to a crime suppression effect in all comparisons, with 21.3%, 11.0%, and 15.0% reductions for specific, vicarious, and total network deterrence effects, respectively. The findings suggest that (a) social network analysis based on in-house police records can be used to prevent crime; (b) deterrence messages promulgated by the police have the capacity to reduce crime beyond what was previously assumed, as the cascading of threats in co-offending relationships carries a vicarious crime reduction impact; (c) unlike “reactive specific deterrence” (i.e., a threat of punishment following a specific and detected crime) which can have perverse effects on certain offenders, preventative specific deterrence is a promising crime policy.N/

Comparison of range of commercial or primary care led weight reduction programmes with minimal intervention control for weight loss in obesity: Lighten Up randomised controlled trial

Objective To assess the effectiveness of a range of weight management programmes in terms of weight loss

A randomised controlled trial to compare a range of commercial or primary care led weight reduction programmes with a minimal intervention control for weight loss in obesity: the Lighten Up trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Developed countries are facing a huge rise in the prevalence of obesity and its associated chronic medical problems. In the UK Primary Care Trusts are charged with addressing this in the populations they serve, but evidence about the most effective ways of delivering services is not available. The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of a range of weight loss programmes for obese patients in primary care and to determine the characteristics of patients who respond to an invitation to a free weight management programme.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>Lighten Up is a randomised controlled trial comparing a range of 12-week commercial and NHS weight reduction programmes with a comparator group who are provided with 12 vouchers enabling free entrance to a local leisure centre. The weight reduction programmes are: (i) Weight Watchers, (ii) Slimming World, (iii) Rosemary Conley, (iv) a group-based dietetics-led programme (Size Down), (v) general practice one-to-one counselling, (vi) pharmacy-led one-to-one counselling, (vii) choice of any of the 6 programmes. People with obesity or overweight with a co-morbid disorder are invited to take part by a letter from their general practitioner. The sample size is 740 participants.</p> <p>The primary outcome is weight loss at programme-end (3 months). Secondary outcomes are weight-loss at one year, self-reported physical activity at 3 and 12 months follow-up and percentage weight-loss at 3 months and one year.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This trial will provide evidence about the effectiveness of a range of different weight management programmes in a primary care population.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN25072883</p

The impact of growth promoters on muscle growth and the potential consequences for meat quality

To meet the demands of increased global meat consumption, animal production systems will have to become more efficient, or at least maintain the current efficiency utilizing feed ingredients that are not also used for human consumption. Use of growth promoters is a potential option for increasing production animal feed efficiency and increased muscle growth. The objective of this manuscript is to describe the mechanisms by which the growth promoters, beta-adrenergic agonists and growth hormone, mediate their effects, with specific consideration of the aspects which have implications for meat quality.The work described in this manuscript was supported by a BBSRC LINK Zoetis grant, number BB/J005320/1, as well as a BBSRC CASE PhD studentship awarded to David Brown and Krystal Hemmings and a PhD scholarship awarded to Molebeledi HD Mareko by the Botswana College of Agricultur

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Prevention Not Cure: Targeting Influenced, Influencers and Convergence Spots to Stop Organised Crime from Happening.

Serious, organised crime is an endemic social problem. Despite the extensive literature on organised criminality, the evidence is primarily qualitative, based on selective samples, or both. Population-level data and new sources of information on this phenomenon are needed to overcome these issues. Moreover, the interventions currently available to prevent organised crime from materialising in the first place have shown little success in curbing this multibillion dollar industry. Social control apparatuses such as law enforcement are often understudied and, when such research evidence exists, it is often based on weak causal estimates of treatment effects due to methodological shortcomings. This dissertation attempts to fill these gaps by answering three interrelated primary research questions. First, whom should the police target to prevent them entering organised crime groups, rather than pursuing them once they’re in? Analysis of population-level intelligence and records on organised crime show that prolific offenders who have yet to join an organised crime group provide a suitable yet under-investigated group of offenders. Second, where are serious and organised crime offenders’ haunts or hangouts? By identifying the “convergence points” of gangs and organised crime group members, new locations can be identified and targeted with Protect and Prevent police tactics. Third, do prevention programmes effectively reduce crime originating from organised crime offenders? Using a cluster randomised control trial methodology, I test the deterrent effect of a ‘carrot and stick’ approach on recruits and measure the vicarious effect on their recruiters. The test shows significant impacts that are potentially replicable in other serious and organised crime areas and in other policing fields. This project's practical and theoretical implications are discussed, with a call for future replications of this approach.Home Office funded

Where can offenders be found when they are not committing crimes? A cross-sectional survey of British police officers on non-crime locations

To date, the bulk of research on place and crime has concentrated on crime scene locations and home addresses of both victims and perpetrators. Beyond these locations, less is known about where offenders can be found during regular, non-criminal activity. These ‘non-crime locations’ provide information about offenders’ lifestyles, their relationships with co-offenders, their preferred spots, and the places beyond the spatiotemporal boundaries of the crime where they may plan, manage, or deal with the aftermath of their behaviour. Yet there is a lack of systematic evidence, with the available research relying on local ethnographic designs, small samples or both, as access to such data was limited. This study utilises a novel approach by relying on the professional experience of intelligence police officers assigned to deal with serious and organised crime in the West Midlands County of the United Kingdom to determine the whereabouts of three types of non-crime locations: (a) hangout spots, (b) recruitment spots and (c) contraband hideout spots. Results suggest that offenders frequently visit gyms, specific restaurants, or private residences (not unlike locations where normative people hang out), and new members can be recruited anywhere. Drugs and firearms are strategically hidden near vulnerable persons. According to police officers, offenders are unconcerned by surveillance in these spots and choose venues not usually owned by criminal groups. Theoretical, methodological, and practical implications are discussed

I heard it through the grapevine : A Randomized Controlled Trial on the Direct and Vicarious Effects of Preventative Specific Deterrence Initiatives in Criminal Networks

A rich body of literature exists on deterrence, yet little is known about how deterrence messages are communicated through social networks. This is an important gap in our understanding, because such communication gives rise to the possibility that social institutions can utilize the vicarious effect of the threat of punishment against one individual to reduce the rate of reoffending amongst their criminal associates. To test this, we identified criminals with an extensive offending history (prolific offenders) and their co-offenders using social network analysis and then conducted a randomized controlled trial to measure the effect on both prolific offenders and their cooffenders of delivering a “specific deterrence” message. The treatment— preemptive engagements with prolific offenders by a police officer offering both ‘carrots’ (desistance pathways) and ‘sticks’ (increased sanction threat)—was applied to the prolific offenders, but not to their co-offenders. The outcomes suggest that a single officer–offender engagement leads to a crime suppression effect in all comparisons, with 21.3%, 11.0%, and 15.0% reductions for specific, vicarious, and total network deterrence effects, respectively. The findings suggest that (a) social network analysis based on in-house police records can be used to cartographically understand social networks of offenders, with an aim of preventing crime; (b) deterrence messages promulgated by the police have the capacity to reduce crime beyond what was previously assumed, as the cascading of threats in cooffending relationships carries a vicarious crime reduction impact; (c) unlike “reactive specific deterrence” (i.e., a threat of punishment following a specific and detected crime) which can have perverse effects on certain offenders, preventative specific deterrence is a promising crime policy