Forecasting differences in life expectancy by education

Forecasts of life expectancy (LE) have fuelled debates about the sustainability and dependability of pension and healthcare systems. O

The influence of health care spending on life expectancy

Health care expenditures and life expectancy have both been rising in many countries, including in the Netherlands. However, it is unclear to what extent increased health care spending caused the increase in life expectancy. Establishing a causal link between health care expenditures and mortality is difficult for several reasons. In medicine, randomized clinical trials are the gold standard to demonstrate causality and thereby the effectiveness of clinical interventions. However, data from randomized trials are not available to estimate the influence of health care spending on life expectanc

Sharp upturn of life expectancy in the Netherlands: effect of more health care for the elderly?

During the 1980s and 1990s life expectancy at birth has risen only slowly in the Netherlands. In 2002, however, the rise in life expectancy suddenly accelerated. We studied the possible causes of this remarkable development. Mortality data by age, gender and cause of death were analyzed using life table methods and age-period-cohort modeling. Trends in determinants of mortality (including health care delivery) were compared with trends in mortality. Two-thirds of the increase in life expectancy at birth since 2002 were due to declines in mortality among those aged 65 and over. Declines in mortality reflected a period rather than a cohort effect, and were seen for a wide range of causes of death. Favorable changes in mortality determinants coinciding with the acceleration of mortality decline were mainly seen within the health care system. Health care expenditure rose rapidly after 2001, and was accompanied by a sharp rise of specialist visits, drug prescriptions, hospital admissions and surgical procedures among the elderly. A decline of deaths following non-treatment decisions suggests a change towards more active treatment of elderly patients. Our findings are consistent with the idea that the sharp upturn of life expectancy in the Netherlands was at least partly due to a sharp increase in health care for the elderly, and has been facilitated by a relaxation of budgetary constraints in the health care system

DYNAMO-HIA–A Dynamic Modeling Tool for Generic Health Impact Assessments

Currently, no standard tool is publicly available that allows researchers or policy-makers to quantify the impact of policies using epidemiological evidence within the causal framework of Health Impact Assessment (HIA). A standard tool should comply with three technical criteria (real-life population, dynamic projection, explicit risk-factor states) and three usability criteria (modest data requirements, rich model output, generally accessible) to be useful in the applied setting of HIA. With DYNAMO-HIA (Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment), we introduce such a generic software tool specifically designed to facilitate quantification in the assessment of the health impacts of policies

Mortality risk associated with disability: A population-based record linkage study

Objectives: We assessed the association between mortality and disability and quantified the effect of disability-associated risk factors. Methods: We linked data from cross-sectional health surveys in the Netherlands to the population registry to create a large data set comprising baseline covariates and an indicator of death. We used Cox regression models to estimate the hazard ratio of disability on mortality. Results: Among men, the unadjusted hazard ratio for activities of daily living, mobility, or mild disability defined by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development at age 55 years was 7.85 (95% confidence interval [CI]=4.36, 14.13), 5.21 (95% CI=3.19, 8.51), and 1.87 (95% CI=1.58, 2.22), respectively. People with disability in activities of daily living and mobility had a 10-year shorter life expectancy than nondisabled people had, of which 6 years could be explained by differences in lifestyle, sociodemographics, and major chronic diseases. Conclusions: Disabled people face a higher mortality risk than nondisabled people do. Although the difference can be explained by diseases and other risk factors for those with mild disability, we cannot rule out that more severe disabilities have an independent effect on mortality

Cancer mortality patterns among Turkish immigrants in four European countries and in Turkey

Spallek J, Arnold M, Razum O, et al. Cancer mortality patterns among Turkish immigrants in four European countries and in Turkey. European Journal Of Epidemiology. 2012;27(12):915-921.The aim of this study on cancer mortality among Turkish immigrants, for the first time, traditional comparisons in migrant health research have been extended simultaneously in two ways. First, comparisons were made to cancer mortality from the immigrants' country of origin and second, cancer mortality among Turkish immigrants across four host countries (Belgium, Denmark, France and the Netherlands) was compared. Population-based cancer mortality data from these countries were included. Age-standardized mortality rates were computed for the local-born and Turkish population of each country. Relative differences in cancer mortality were examined by fitting country-specific Poisson regression models. Globocan data on cancer mortality in Turkey from 2008 were used in order to compare mortality rates of Turkish immigrants with those from their country of origin. Turkish immigrants had lower all-cancer mortality than the local-born populations of their host countries, and mortality levels comparable to all-cancer mortality rates in Turkey. In the Netherlands and France breast cancer mortality was consistently lower in Turkish immigrants women than among local-born women. Lung cancer mortality was slightly lower in Turkish immigrants in the Netherlands and France but varied considerably between migrants in these two host countries. Stomach cancer mortality was significantly higher in Turkish immigrants when compared to local-born French and Dutch. Our findings indicate that exposures both in the country of origin and in the host country can have an effect on the cancer mortality of immigrants. Despite limitations affecting any cross-country comparison of mortality, the innovative multi-comparison approach is a promising way to gain further insights into determinants of trends in cancer mortality of immigrants