The Welfare Cost of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in the Post-War Period

Lucas (1987) has shown the surprising result that the welfare cost of business cycles is quite small. Using standard assumptions on preferences and a fully-fledged econometric model we computed the welfare costs of macroeconomic uncertainty for the post-WWII era using the multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition for trends and cycles, which considers not only business-cycle uncertainty but also uncertainty from the stochastic trend in consumption. The post-WWII period is relatively quiet, with the welfare costs of uncertainty being about 0.9% of per-capita consumption. Although changing the decomposition method changed substantially initial results, the welfare cost of uncertainty is qualitatively small in the post-WWII era - about $175.00 a year per-capita in the U.S. We also computed the marginal welfare cost of macroeconomic uncertainty using this same technique. It is about twice as large as the welfare cost -$350.00 a year per-capita.welfare costs of business cycles, Beveridge-Nelson decomposition

On the Welfare Costs of Business-Cycle Fluctuations and Economic-Growth Variation in the 20th Century

Lucas (1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost ofbusiness cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computingwelfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming frombusiness-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major differences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values -β=0.985, and ∅=5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% - the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business- cycle fluctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same figures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.

Quais os impactos da desaposentação? Um estudo para as aposentadorias por tempo de contribuição do regime geral de previdência social

This study aims to evaluate the impacts of re-retirement, a term used when an Brazilian insured INSS retires, but remains in the formal labor market, and asks recalculation of the pension benefit due to the increase in the contribution period. There is an important tradeoff: the more the insured take to ask re-retirement, the greater the increase in the value of the benefit. However, the time of enjoyment of this gain will be less. Conversely, the more premature re-retirement, the lower the effective increase in the period and greater enjoyment. The theoretical framework is based on the concepts of actuarial justice and actuarial neutrality. Were employed four indicators used in the literature pension: Replacement Rate, Internal Rate of Return, Necessary Rate and Effective Rate. The results show an optimal period for re-retirement: at least 4.83 years (men) and 7.83 years for (women). If the return of the benefit is required before the recalculation, there is no advantage in re-retirement.Este trabalho visa a avaliar os impactos da desaposentação, termo empregado quando um segurado do INSS se aposenta, mas se mantém no mercado de trabalho formal e pede recálculo do valor da aposentadoria, devido ao acréscimo no período contributivo. Há um trade off importante: quanto mais o segurado demorar em pedir a desaposentação, maior será o incremento no valor do benefício. Porém, o tempo de usufruto deste ganho será menor. Inversamente, quanto mais prematura a desaposentação, menor será o aumento no benefício e maior o período de desfrute. A fundamentação teórica baseia-se nos conceitos de justiça atuarial e neutralidade atuarial. Foram utilizados quatro indicadores usualmente adotados na literatura previdenciária: Taxa de Reposição, Taxa Interna de Retorno, Alíquota Necessária e Alíquota Efetiva. Os resultados evidenciam um período ótimo para a desaposentação: pelo menos 4,83 anos (homens) e 7,83 anos para (mulheres). Se a devolução do benefício for obrigatória antes do recálculo, não há vantagens na desaposentação.Escola Superior de Administração e Gestão StrongUNIFESP EPPENUSP Faculdade de Economia, Administração e ContabilidadeUNIFESP, EPPENSciEL

Uma análise econômico-atuarial dos death bonds

Um death bond é um título emitido por uma instituição financeira para comprar uma apólice de seguro de vida de um segurado que deseja receber recursos ainda em vida. Este trabalho faz a precificação dos death bonds para ambos os gêneros e diferentes idades de contratação do seguro, empregando técnicas de modelagem atuarial. Os resultados iniciais mostram pouca atratividade para os investidores no título. Uma extensão do modelo mostra que se os investidores conseguirem identificar os segurados com as piores condições de saúde, os retornos são substancialmente mais elevados e os desvios-padrão são bastante reduzidos

Therapeutic drug monitoring of CT-P13: a comparison of four different immunoassays

Background: The commercialization of CT-P13, an infliximab (IFX) biosimilar, has the potential to decrease health-related costs and enhance access to biological therapies. This study aimed to address the accuracy and inter-assay agreement of the CT-P13 quantification using four different assays initially developed to assess IFX. Methods: The four different methods, one in-house method and three commercially available kits, were used to quantify exogenously-spiked samples and the sera from 185 inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients on CT-P13 therapy. Results: The quantification of the spiked samples unveiled a consistent and accurate behaviour of three of the tested methods, with average percentage recoveries of 90%, 102% and 109%. Results from the clinical samples demonstrated that these three assays were also highly correlated, both concerning Spearman's rank coefficients (range 0.890-0.947) and intraclass correlation coefficients (range 0.907-0.935). There were a few systematic deviations among them, but their impact in the clinical stratification of the patients using different cut-offs was minimal, particularly when these cut-offs were in the 3-4 mu g/ml range, for which the strength of agreement (as assessed by the Kappa statistics that ranged from 0.732 to 0.902) was substantial to almost perfect. Conclusions: Our results indicate that three of the tested IFX quantification methods can be used to accurately quantify CT-P13 without any adjustments.Portuguese IBD Group (GEDII, Grupo de Estudo da Doenca Inflamatoria Intestinal)Portuguese IBD Group (GEDII, Grupo de Estudo da Doença Inflamatória Intestinal

Ramificaçao e distribuição da artéria celíaca na cutia (Dasyprocta aguti)

Estudamos a ramificação e a distribuição da artéria celíaca em 19 cutias (Dasyprocta aguti, Rodentia) adultas (5 machos e 14 fêmeas), procedentes do Estado do Piauí, Brasil. Injetamos látex, do tipo Neoprene 650 corado, na porção abdominal da aorta de cada animal, os quais foram fixados cm solução aquosa de formol a 10%. Nossos resultados mostraram que a artéria celíaca termina por trifurcação (73,7% ± 10,1) nas artérias esplênica, gástrica esquerda e hepática ou por bifurcação (26,3% ± 10,1). A artéria esplênica emite vários ramos para o baço1 a 7 e continua-se como artéria gastroepiplóica esquerda. A artéria hepática dá origem à artéria gástrica direita, gastroepiplóica direita e pancreaticoduodenal cranial. A artéria gástrica esquerda destina-se à pequena curvatura e parte proventricular do estômago.The branches and distribution of the coeliac artery were studied in 19 adult specimens (5 males and 14 females) of “Cutias” (Dasyprocta aguti, Rodentia) captured in the State of Piaui, Brazil. After anesthesia and prior to dissection, Neoprene-latex 650 was injected through the abdominal portion of the aorta. The results showed that the coeliac artery was found with 2 (26.3%) or 3 (73.7%) terminal branches: splenic, left gastric and hepatic arteries. The splenic artery, after giving several branches to the spleen (1 to 7), sends one (the left gastroepiploic artery) to the stomach. The hepatic artery gives off the right gastric, right gastroepiploic and cranial pancreaticoduodenal arteries. The left gastric artery sends branches to the stomach (lesser curvature and proventricular part)

Increasing rate of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies between the first and second waves of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil: A cross-sectional blood donors-based study

Background: SARS-CoV-2 infections rapidly spread along with Brazilian territory with heterogeneous transmission and mortality rates, mostly depending on region and period. Investigation of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies is an important tool to understand virus circulation. Given that blood donors are a representative casuistic of a healthy population, the authors evaluated the seroprevalence of IgG and IgM COVID-19 antibodies in 2,806 blood donors from a blood bank located in São Paulo, Brazil. Methods: Aiming to evaluate viral behavior over time, the authors selected samples from blood donors who donated in June and October 2020, and February 2021. To determine whether socio-demographic features affected the seroprevalence, the authors analyzed samples from three different regions from São Paulo (capital, metropolitan and countryside regions) and evaluated predictors as gender, age, educational level, race, and use of public transportation. Results: As expected, the authors observed that seroprevalence increased over time. Seroprevalence was greater in São Paulo city compared to metropolitan and countryside regions, being smallest in the countryside. Characteristics associated with a lower percentage of antibodies were age above 50 years, higher educational level, self-declared Caucasian, and use of individual transportation. Conclusion: In conclusion, blood donors' samples proved to accurately reflect virus circulation in the healthy population