Future changes in isoprene-epoxydiol-derived secondary organic aerosol (IEPOX SOA) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: the importance of physicochemical dependency

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is a dominant contributor of fine particulate matter in the atmosphere, but the complexity of SOA formation chemistry hinders the accurate representation of SOA in models. Volatility-based SOA parameterizations have been adopted in many recent chemistry modeling studies and have shown a reasonable performance compared to observations. However, assumptions made in these empirical parameterizations can lead to substantial errors when applied to future climatic conditions as they do not include the mechanistic understanding of processes but are rather fitted to laboratory studies of SOA formation. This is particularly the case for SOA derived from isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX SOA), for which we have a higher level of understanding of the fundamental processes than is currently parameterized in most models. We predict future SOA concentrations using an explicit mechanism and compare the predictions with the empirical parameterization based on the volatility basis set (VBS) approach. We then use the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2.1.0) with detailed isoprene chemistry and reactive uptake processes for the middle and end of the 21st century under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1&ndash;2.6, SSP2&ndash;4.5, SSP3&ndash;7.0, and SSP5&ndash;8.5. With the explicit chemical mechanism, we find that IEPOX SOA is predicted to increase on average under all future SSP scenarios but with some variability in the results depending on regions and the scenario chosen. Isoprene emissions are the main driver of IEPOX SOA changes in the future climate, but the IEPOX SOA yield from isoprene emissions also changes by up to 50&thinsp;% depending on the SSP scenario, in particular due to different sulfur emissions. We conduct sensitivity simulations with and without CO2 inhibition of isoprene emissions that is highly uncertain, which results in factor of&nbsp;2 differences in the predicted IEPOX SOA global burden, especially for the high-CO2 scenarios (SSP3&ndash;7.0 and SSP5&ndash;8.5). Aerosol pH also plays a critical role in the IEPOX SOA formation rate, requiring accurate calculation of aerosol pH in chemistry models. On the other hand, isoprene SOA calculated with the VBS scheme predicts a nearly constant SOA yield from isoprene emissions across all SSP scenarios; as a result, it mostly follows isoprene emissions regardless of region and scenario. This is because the VBS scheme does not consider heterogeneous chemistry; in other words, there is no dependency on aerosol properties. The discrepancy between the explicit mechanism and VBS parameterization in this study is likely to occur for other SOA components as well, which may also have dependencies that cannot be captured by VBS parameterizations. This study highlights the need for more explicit chemistry or for parameterizations that capture the dependence on key physicochemical drivers when predicting SOA concentrations for climate studies. </div

Global modeling of aerosol nucleation with a semi-explicit chemical mechanism for highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs)

Abstract. New particle formation (NPF) involving organic compounds has been identified as an important process affecting aerosol particle number concentrations in the global atmosphere. Laboratory studies have shown that highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs) can make a substantial contribution to NPF, but there is a lack of global model studies of NPF with detailed HOM chemistry. Here, we incorporate a state-of-the-art biogenic HOM chemistry scheme with 96 chemical reactions to a global chemistry–climate model and quantify the contribution to global aerosols through HOM-driven NPF. The updated model captures the frequency of NPF events observed at continental surface sites (normalized mean bias changes from −96 % to −15 %) and shows reasonable agreement with measured rates of NPF and sub-20 nm particle growth. Sensitivity simulations show that compared to turning off the organic nucleation rate, turning off organic initial growth results in a more substantial decrease in aerosol number concentrations. Globally, organics contribute around 45 % of the annual mean vertically integrated nucleation rate (at 1.7 nm) and 25 % of the vertically averaged growth rate. The inclusion of HOM-related processes leads to a 39 % increase in the global annual mean aerosol number burden and a 33 % increase in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) burden at 0.5 % supersaturation compared to a simulation with only inorganic nucleation. Our work predicts a greater contribution of organic nucleation to NPF than previous studies due to the semi-explicit HOM mechanism and an updated inorganic NPF scheme. The large contribution of biogenic HOMs to NPF on a global scale could make aerosol sensitive to changes in biogenic emissions

Aerosol pH indicator and organosulfate detectability from aerosol mass spectrometry measurements

Aerosol sulfate is a major component of submicron particulate matter (PM1). Sulfate can be present as inorganic (mainly ammonium sulfate, AS) or organosulfate (OS). Although OS is thought to be a smaller fraction of total sulfate in most cases, recent literature argues that this may not be the case in more polluted environments. Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometers (AMSs) measure total submicron sulfate, but it has been difficult to apportion AS vs. OS as the detected ion fragments are similar. Recently, two new methods have been proposed to quantify OS separately from AS with AMS data. We use observations collected during several airborne field campaigns covering a wide range of sources and air mass ages (spanning the continental US, marine remote troposphere, and Korea) and targeted laboratory experiments to investigate the performance and validity of the proposed OS methods. Four chemical regimes are defined to categorize the factors impacting sulfate fragmentation. In polluted areas with high ammonium nitrate concentrations and in remote areas with high aerosol acidity, the decomposition and fragmentation of sulfate in the AMS is influenced by multiple complex effects, and estimation of OS does not seem possible with current methods. In regions with lower acidity (pH \u3e 0) and ammonium nitrate (fraction of total mass \u3c 0.3), the proposed OS methods might be more reliable, although application of these methods often produced nonsensical results. However, the fragmentation of ambient neutralized sulfate varies somewhat within studies, adding uncertainty, possibly due to variations in the effect of organics. Under highly acidic conditions (when calculated pH \u3c 0 and ammonium balance \u3c 0.65), sulfate fragment ratios show a clear relationship with acidity. The measured ammonium balance (and to a lesser extent, the HySO+x / SO+x AMS ratio) is a promising indicator of rapid estimation of aerosol pH \u3c 0, including when gas-phase NH3 and HNO3 are not available. These results allow an improved understanding of important intensive properties of ambient aerosols

A simplified parameterization of isoprene-epoxydiol-derived secondary organic aerosol (IEPOX-SOA) for global chemistry and climate models: a case study with GEOS-Chem v11-02-rc

Secondary organic aerosol derived from isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX-SOA) is thought to contribute the dominant fraction of total isoprene SOA, but the current volatility-based lumped SOA parameterizations are not appropriate to represent the reactive uptake of IEPOX onto acidified aerosols. A full explicit modeling of this chemistry is however computationally expensive owing to the many species and reactions tracked, which makes it difficult to include it in chemistry&ndash;climate models for long-term studies. Here we present three simplified parameterizations (version 1.0) for IEPOX-SOA simulation, based on an approximate analytical/fitting solution of the IEPOX-SOA yield and formation timescale. The yield and timescale can then be directly calculated using the global model fields of oxidants, NO, aerosol pH and other key properties, and dry deposition rates. The advantage of the proposed parameterizations is that they do not require the simulation of the intermediates while retaining the key physicochemical dependencies. We have implemented the new parameterizations into the GEOS-Chem v11-02-rc chemical transport model, which has two empirical treatments for isoprene SOA (the volatility-basis-set, VBS, approach and a fixed 3 % yield parameterization), and compared all of them to the case with detailed fully explicit chemistry. The best parameterization (PAR3) captures the global tropospheric burden of IEPOX-SOA and its spatiotemporal distribution (R2=0.94) vs. those simulated by the full chemistry, while being more computationally efficient (&sim;5 times faster), and accurately captures the response to changes in NOx and SO2 emissions. On the other hand, the constant 3 % yield that is now the default in GEOS-Chem deviates strongly (R2=0.66), as does the VBS (R2=0.47, 49 % underestimation), with neither parameterization capturing the response to emission changes. With the advent of new mass spectrometry instrumentation, many detailed SOA mechanisms are being developed, which will challenge global and especially climate models with their computational cost. The methods developed in this study can be applied to other SOA pathways, which can allow including accurate SOA simulations in climate and global modeling studies in the future.</p

Interferences on aerosol acidity quantification due to gas-phase ammonia uptake onto acidic sulfate filter samples

Measurements of the mass concentration and chemical speciation of aerosols are important to investigate their chemical and physical processing from near emission sources to the most remote regions of the atmosphere. A common method to analyze aerosols is to collect them onto filters and analyze the filters offline; however, biases in some chemical components are possible due to changes in the accumulated particles during the handling of the samples. Any biases would impact the measured chemical composition, which in turn affects our understanding of numerous physicochemical processes and aerosol radiative properties. We show, using filters collected onboard the NASA DC-8 and NSF C-130 during six different aircraft campaigns, a consistent, substantial difference in ammonium mass concentration and ammonium-to-anion ratios when comparing the aerosols collected on filters versus an Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS). Another online measurement is consistent with the AMS in showing that the aerosol has lower ammonium-to-anion ratios than obtained by the filters. Using a gas uptake model with literature values for accommodation coefficients, we show that for ambient ammonia mixing ratios greater than 10 ppbv, the timescale for ammonia reacting with acidic aerosol on filter substrates is less than 30 s (typical filter handling time in the aircraft) for typical aerosol volume distributions. Measurements of gas-phase ammonia inside the cabin of the DC-8 show ammonia mixing ratios of 45±20 ppbv, consistent with mixing ratios observed in other indoor environments. This analysis enables guidelines for filter handling to reduce ammonia uptake. Finally, a more meaningful limit of detection for University of New Hampshire Soluble Acidic Gases and Aerosol (SAGA) filters collected during airborne campaigns is ∼0.2 µg sm−3 of ammonium, which is substantially higher than the limit of detection of ion chromatography. A similar analysis should be conducted for filters that collect inorganic aerosol and do not have ammonia scrubbers and/or are handled in the presence of human ammonia emissions

Characterization of organic aerosol across the global remote troposphere: A comparison of ATom measurements and global chemistry models

The spatial distribution and properties of submicron organic aerosol (OA) are among the key sources of uncertainty in our understanding of aerosol effects on climate. Uncertainties are particularly large over remote regions of the free troposphere and Southern Ocean, where very few data have been available and where OA predictions from AeroCom Phase II global models span 2 to 3 orders of magnitude, greatly exceeding the model spread over source regions. The (nearly) pole-to-pole vertical distribution of nonrefractory aerosols was measured with an aerosol mass spectrometer onboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft as part of the Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission during the Northern Hemisphere summer (August 2016) and winter (February 2017). This study presents the first extensive characterization of OA mass concentrations and their level of oxidation in the remote atmosphere. OA and sulfate are the major contributors by mass to submicron aerosols in the remote troposphere, together with sea salt in the marine boundary layer. Sulfate was dominant in the lower stratosphere. OA concentrations have a strong seasonal and zonal variability, with the highest levels measured in the lower troposphere in the summer and over the regions influenced by biomass burning from Africa (up to 10 μgsm-3). Lower concentrations (~ 0:1 0.3 μgsm-3) are observed in the northern middle and high latitudes and very low concentrations (< 0:1 μgsm-3) in the southern middle and high latitudes. The ATom dataset is used to evaluate predictions of eight current global chemistry models that implement a variety of commonly used representations of OA sources and chemistry, as well as of the AeroCom-II ensemble. The current model ensemble captures the average vertical and spatial distribution of measured OA concentrations, and the spread of the individual models remains within a factor of 5. These results are significantly improved over the AeroCom-II model ensemble, which shows large overestimations over these regions. However, some of the improved agreement with observations occurs for the wrong reasons, as models have the tendency to greatly overestimate the primary OA fraction and underestimate the sec-ondary fraction. Measured OA in the remote free troposphere is highly oxygenated, with organic aerosol to organic carbon (OA= OC) ratios of ~ 2.2 2.8, and is 30 % 60% more oxygenated than in current models, which can lead to significant errors in OA concentrations. The model measurement comparisons presented here support the concept of a more dynamic OA system as proposed by Hodzic et al. (2016), with enhanced removal of primary OA and a stronger production of secondary OA in global models needed to provide better agreement with observations. © 2020 IEEE Computer Society. All rights reserved

Secondary organic aerosols from anthropogenic volatile organic compounds contribute substantially to air pollution mortality

Anthropogenic secondary organic aerosol (ASOA), formed from anthropogenic emissions of organic compounds, constitutes a substantial fraction of the mass of submicron aerosol in populated areas around the world and contributes to poor air quality and premature mortality. However, the precursor sources of ASOA are poorly understood, and there are large uncertainties in the health benefits that might accrue from reducing anthropogenic organic emissions. We show that the production of ASOA in 11 urban areas on three continents is strongly correlated with the reactivity of specific anthropogenic volatile organic compounds. The differences in ASOA production across different cities can be explained by differences in the emissions of aromatics and intermediate- and semi-volatile organic compounds, indicating the importance of controlling these ASOA precursors. With an improved model representation of ASOA driven by the observations, we attribute 340&thinsp;000&nbsp;PM2.5-related premature deaths per year to ASOA, which is over an order of magnitude higher than prior studies. A sensitivity case with a more recently proposed model for attributing mortality to PM2.5 (the Global Exposure Mortality Model) results in up to 900&thinsp;000 deaths. A limitation of this study is the extrapolation from cities with detailed studies and regions where detailed emission inventories are available to other regions where uncertainties in emissions are larger. In addition to further development of institutional air quality management infrastructure, comprehensive air quality campaigns in the countries in South and Central America, Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East are needed for further progress in this area. &nbsp;</p

Chemical transport models often underestimate aerosol acidity in remote regions of the atmosphere

The inorganic fraction of fine particles affects numerous physicochemical processes in the atmosphere. However, there is large uncertainty in its burden and composition due to limited global measurements. Here, we present observations from eleven different aircraft campaigns from around the globe and investigate how aerosol pH and ammonium balance change from polluted to remote regions, such as over the oceans. Both parameters show increasing acidity with remoteness, at all altitudes, with pH decreasing from about 3 to about −1 and ammonium balance decreasing from almost 1 to nearly 0. We compare these observations against nine widely used chemical transport models and find that the simulations show more scatter (generally R2 \u3c 0.50) and typically predict less acidic aerosol in the most remote regions. These differences in observations and predictions are likely to result in underestimating the model-predicted direct radiative cooling effect for sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium aerosol by 15–39%

Characterization of organic aerosol across the global remote troposphere: a comparison of ATom measurements and global chemistry models

The spatial distribution and properties of submicron organic aerosol (OA) are among the key sources of uncertainty in our understanding of aerosol effects on climate. Uncertainties are particularly large over remote regions of the free troposphere and Southern Ocean, where very few data have been available and where OA predictions from AeroCom Phase II global models span 2&nbsp;to 3&nbsp;orders of magnitude, greatly exceeding the model spread over source regions. The (nearly) pole-to-pole vertical distribution of non-refractory aerosols was measured with an aerosol mass spectrometer onboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft as part of the Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission during the Northern Hemisphere summer (August&nbsp;2016) and winter (February&nbsp;2017). This study presents the first extensive characterization of OA mass concentrations and their level of oxidation in the remote atmosphere. OA and sulfate are the major contributors by mass to submicron aerosols in the remote troposphere, together with sea salt in the marine boundary layer. Sulfate was dominant in the lower stratosphere. OA concentrations have a strong seasonal and zonal variability, with the highest levels measured in the lower troposphere in the summer and over the regions influenced by biomass burning from Africa (up to 10&thinsp;&micro;g&thinsp;sm&minus;3). Lower concentrations (&sim;0.1&ndash;0.3&thinsp;&micro;g&thinsp;sm&minus;3) are observed in the northern middle and high latitudes and very low concentrations (&lt;0.1&thinsp;&micro;g&thinsp;sm&minus;3) in the southern middle and high latitudes. The ATom dataset is used to evaluate predictions of eight current global chemistry models that implement a variety of commonly used representations of OA sources and chemistry, as well as of the AeroCom-II ensemble. The current model ensemble captures the average vertical and spatial distribution of measured OA concentrations, and the spread of the individual models remains within a factor of 5. These results are significantly improved over the AeroCom-II model ensemble, which shows large overestimations over these regions. However, some of the improved agreement with observations occurs for the wrong reasons, as models have the tendency to greatly overestimate the primary OA fraction and underestimate the secondary fraction. Measured OA in the remote free troposphere is highly oxygenated, with organic aerosol to organic carbon (OA&thinsp;∕&thinsp;OC) ratios of &sim;2.2&ndash;2.8, and is 30&thinsp;%&ndash;60&thinsp;% more oxygenated than in current models, which can lead to significant errors in OA concentrations. The model&ndash;measurement comparisons presented here support the concept of a more dynamic OA system as proposed by Hodzic et al. (2016), with enhanced removal of primary OA and a stronger production of secondary OA in global models needed to provide better agreement with observations. </div

Chemical transport models often underestimate inorganic aerosol acidity in remote regions of the atmosphere

The inorganic fraction of fine particles affects numerous physicochemical processes in the atmosphere. However, there is large uncertainty in its burden and composition due to limited global measurements. Here, we present observations from eleven different aircraft campaigns from around the globe and investigate how aerosol pH and ammonium balance change from polluted to remote regions, such as over the oceans. Both parameters show increasing acidity with remoteness, at all altitudes, with pH decreasing from about 3 to about −1 and ammonium balance decreasing from almost 1 to nearly 0. We compare these observations against nine widely used chemical transport models and find that the simulations show more scatter (generally R2 < 0.50) and typically predict less acidic aerosol in the most remote regions. These differences in observations and predictions are likely to result in underestimating the model-predicted direct radiative cooling effect for sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium aerosol by 15–39%