Towards a carbon-neutral future: Scenario-based assessment of climate-induced risks to regional energy production and trends in the Kansas City area

Track I: Power GenerationIncludes audio file (22 min.)Climate change and weather-related events contain elements of both risk and uncertainty. Risk is often defined as more short-term in nature, more measurable, and predictable. Uncertainty, on the other hand, arises from the unknown, is often more long term and typically is difficult to quantify. Addressing these challenges requires a greater focus on assessing key societal vulnerabilities; and only recently have the climate community began exploring it as a basis for understanding the functioning, resilience and vulnerabilities of coupled socio-economic and biophysical systems at policy-relevant time and space scales. This vulnerability paradigm informs this project's core goal, which is to refine knowledge about place-based firm and industry risk and uncertainty so that decision-makers will better understand the causes and ramifications of change, and improve their ability to understand the consequences of policy, strategy, and operational changes. In this presentation, we will discuss preliminary results from an ongoing study commissioned by the Kansas City Missouri Environmental Management Commission on the impacts of climate variability on past and current energy production and consumption trends; and how those trends could be impacted by potential changes in future climate. The study examines macroscale energy production issues as well as residential level energy use and conservation potential in the Kansas City area

Impact of Irrigation on Midsummer Surface Fluxes and Temperature under Dry Synoptic Conditions: A Regional Atmospheric Model Study of the U.S. High Plains

The impact of irrigation on the surface energy budget in the U.S. high plains is investigated. Four 15-day simulations were conducted: one using a 1997 satellite-derived estimate of farmland acreage under irrigation in Nebraska (control run), two using the Olson Global Ecosystem (OGE) vegetation dataset (OGE wet run and OGE dry run), and the fourth with the Kuchler vegetation dataset (natural vegetation run) as lower boundary conditions in the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). In the control and OGE wet simulations, the topsoil in the irrigated locations, up to a depth of 0.2 m, was saturated at 0000 UTC each day for the duration of the experiment (1–15 July 1997). In the other two runs, the soil was allowed to dry out, except when replenished naturally by rainfall. Identical observed atmospheric conditions were used along the lateral boundary in all four cases. The area-averaged model-derived quantities for the grid centered over Nebraska indicate significant differences in the surface energy fluxes between the control (irrigated) and the ‘‘dry’’ simulations. For example, a 36% increase in the surface latent heat flux and a 2.68C elevation in dewpoint temperature between the control run and the OGE dry run is shown. Surface sensible heat flux of the control run was 15% less and the near-ground temperature was 1.28C less compared to the OGE dry run. The differences between the control run and the natural vegetation run were similar but amplified compared to the control run–OGE dry run comparisons. Results of statistical analyses of long-term(1921–2000) surface temperature data from two sites representing locations of extensive irrigated and nonirrigated land uses appear to support model results presented herein of an irrigationrelated cooling in surface temperature. Growing season monthly mean and monthly mean maximum temperature data for the irrigated site indicate a steady decreasing trend in contrast to an increasing trend at the nonirrigated site

Impact of Irrigation on Midsummer Surface Fluxes and Temperature under Dry Synoptic Conditions: A Regional Atmospheric Model Study of the U.S. High Plains

The impact of irrigation on the surface energy budget in the U.S. high plains is investigated. Four 15-day simulations were conducted: one using a 1997 satellite-derived estimate of farmland acreage under irrigation in Nebraska (control run), two using the Olson Global Ecosystem (OGE) vegetation dataset (OGE wet run and OGE dry run), and the fourth with the Kuchler vegetation dataset (natural vegetation run) as lower boundary conditions in the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). In the control and OGE wet simulations, the topsoil in the irrigated locations, up to a depth of 0.2 m, was saturated at 0000 UTC each day for the duration of the experiment (1–15 July 1997). In the other two runs, the soil was allowed to dry out, except when replenished naturally by rainfall. Identical observed atmospheric conditions were used along the lateral boundary in all four cases. The area-averaged model-derived quantities for the grid centered over Nebraska indicate significant differences in the surface energy fluxes between the control (irrigated) and the ‘‘dry’’ simulations. For example, a 36% increase in the surface latent heat flux and a 2.68C elevation in dewpoint temperature between the control run and the OGE dry run is shown. Surface sensible heat flux of the control run was 15% less and the near-ground temperature was 1.28C less compared to the OGE dry run. The differences between the control run and the natural vegetation run were similar but amplified compared to the control run–OGE dry run comparisons. Results of statistical analyses of long-term(1921–2000) surface temperature data from two sites representing locations of extensive irrigated and nonirrigated land uses appear to support model results presented herein of an irrigationrelated cooling in surface temperature. Growing season monthly mean and monthly mean maximum temperature data for the irrigated site indicate a steady decreasing trend in contrast to an increasing trend at the nonirrigated site

Surface Energy Balance Measurements Above an Exurban Residential Neighbourhood of Kansas City, Missouri

Previous measurements of urban energy balances generally have been limited to densely built, central city sites and older suburban locations with mature tree canopies that are higher than the height of the buildings. In contrast, few data are available for the extensive, open vegetated types typical of low-density residential areas that have been newly converted from rural land use. We made direct measurements of surface energy fluxes using the eddy-covariance technique at Greenwood, a recently developed exurban neighbourhood near Kansas City, Missouri, USA, during an intensive field campaign in August 2004. Energy partitioning was dominated by the latent heat flux under both cloudy and near clear-sky conditions. The mean daytime Bowen ratio (β) values were 0.46, 0.48, and 0.47 respectively for the cloudy, near clear-sky and all-sky conditions. Net radiation (R n ) increased rapidly from dawn (−34 and −58W m−2) during the night to reach a maximum (423 and 630W m−2) after midday for cloudy and near clear-sky conditions respectively. Mean daytime values were 253 and 370W m−2, respectively for the cloudy and near clear-sky conditions, while mean daily values were 114 for cloudy and 171W m−2 for near clear-sky conditions, respectively. Midday surface albedo values were 0.25 and 0.24 for the cloudy and near clear-sky conditions, respectively. The site exhibited an angular dependence on the solar elevation angle, in contrast to previous observations over urban and suburban areas, but similar to vegetated surfaces. The latent heat flux (Q E ), sensible heat flux (Q H ), and the residual heat storage ΔQ s terms accounted for between 46–58%, 21–23%, and 18–31% of R n , respectively, for all-sky conditions and time averages. The observed albedo, R n , and Q E values are higher than the values that have been reported for suburban areas with high summer evapotranspiration rates in North America. These results suggest that the rapidly growing residential areas at the exurban fringe of large metropolitan areas have a surface energy balance that is more similar to the rural areas from which they were developed than it is to the older suburbs and city centres that make up the urban fabric to which they are being joined

Surface Energy Balance Measurements Above an Exurban Residential Neighbourhood of Kansas City, Missouri

Previous measurements of urban energy balances generally have been limited to densely built, central city sites and older suburban locations with mature tree canopies that are higher than the height of the buildings. In contrast, few data are available for the extensive, open vegetated types typical of low-density residential areas that have been newly converted from rural land use. We made direct measurements of surface energy fluxes using the eddy-covariance technique at Greenwood, a recently developed exurban neighbourhood near Kansas City, Missouri, USA, during an intensive field campaign in August 2004. Energy partitioning was dominated by the latent heat flux under both cloudy and near clear-sky conditions. The mean daytime Bowen ratio (β) values were 0.46, 0.48, and 0.47 respectively for the cloudy, near clear-sky and all-sky conditions. Net radiation (R n ) increased rapidly from dawn (−34 and −58W m−2) during the night to reach a maximum (423 and 630W m−2) after midday for cloudy and near clear-sky conditions respectively. Mean daytime values were 253 and 370W m−2, respectively for the cloudy and near clear-sky conditions, while mean daily values were 114 for cloudy and 171W m−2 for near clear-sky conditions, respectively. Midday surface albedo values were 0.25 and 0.24 for the cloudy and near clear-sky conditions, respectively. The site exhibited an angular dependence on the solar elevation angle, in contrast to previous observations over urban and suburban areas, but similar to vegetated surfaces. The latent heat flux (Q E ), sensible heat flux (Q H ), and the residual heat storage ΔQ s terms accounted for between 46–58%, 21–23%, and 18–31% of R n , respectively, for all-sky conditions and time averages. The observed albedo, R n , and Q E values are higher than the values that have been reported for suburban areas with high summer evapotranspiration rates in North America. These results suggest that the rapidly growing residential areas at the exurban fringe of large metropolitan areas have a surface energy balance that is more similar to the rural areas from which they were developed than it is to the older suburbs and city centres that make up the urban fabric to which they are being joined

A New Paradigm for Assessing the Role of Agriculture in the Climate System and in Climate Change

This paper discusses the diverse climate forcings that impact agricultural systems, and contrasts the current paradigm of using global models downscaled to agricultural areas (a top-down approach) with a new paradigm that first assesses the vulnerability of agricultural activities to the spectrum of environmental risk including climate (a bottom-up approach). To illustrate the wide spectrum of climate forcings, regional climate forcings are presented including land-use/land-cover change and the influence of aerosols on radiative and biogeochemical fluxes and cloud/precipitation processes, as well as how these effects can be teleconnected globally. Examples are presented of the vulnerability perspective, along with a small survey of the perceived drought impacts in a local area, in which a wide range of impacts for the same precipitation deficits are found. This example illustrates why agricultural assessments of risk to climate change and variability and of other environmental risks should start with a bottom-up perspective

Impacts of land use/land cover change on climate and future research priorities

Several recommendations have been proposed for detecting land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the environment from, observed climatic records and to modeling to improve its understanding and its impacts on climate. Researchers need to detect LULCCs accurately at appropriate scales within a specified time period to better understand their impacts on climate and provide improved estimates of future climate. The US Climate Reference Network (USCRN) can be helpful in monitoring impacts of LULCC on near-surface atmospheric conditions, including temperature. The USCRN measures temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and ground or skin temperature. It is recommended that the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and other climate monitoring agencies develop plans and seek funds to address any monitoring biases that are identified and for which detailed analyses have not been completed