Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What do Twenty-three Million Bank Loans Say about the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk?

We investigate the impact of the stance and path of monetary policy on the level of credit risk of individual bank loans and on lending standards. We employ the Credit Register of the Bank of Spain that contains detailed monthly information on virtually all loans granted by all credit institutions operating in Spain during the last twenty-two years – generating almost twenty-three million bank loan records in total. Spanish monetary conditions were exogenously determined during the entire sample period. Using a variety of duration models we find that lower short-term interest rates prior to loan origination result in banks granting more risky new loans. Banks also soften their lending standards – they lend more to borrowers with a bad credit history and with high uncertainty. Lower interest rates, by contrast, reduce the credit risk of outstanding loans. Loan credit risk is maximized when both interest rates are very low prior to loan origination and interest rates are very high over the life of the loan. Our results suggest that low interest rates increase bank risk-taking, reduce credit risk in banks in the very short run but worsen it in the medium run. Risk-taking is not equal for all type of banks: Small banks, banks with fewer lending opportunities, banks with less sophisticated depositors, and savings or cooperative banks take on more extra risk than other banks when interest rates are lower. Higher GDP growth reduces credit risk on both new and outstanding loans, in stark contrast to the differential effects of monetary policy.monetary policy;low interest rates;financial stability;lending standards;credit risk;risk-taking;business cycle;bank organization;duration analysis

Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy:What do Twenty-three Million Bank Loans Say about the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk?

We investigate the impact of the stance and path of monetary policy on the level of credit risk of individual bank loans and on lending standards. We employ the Credit Register of the Bank of Spain that contains detailed monthly information on virtually all loans granted by all credit institutions operating in Spain during the last twenty-two years – generating almost twenty-three million bank loan records in total. Spanish monetary conditions were exogenously determined during the entire sample period. Using a variety of duration models we find that lower short-term interest rates prior to loan origination result in banks granting more risky new loans. Banks also soften their lending standards – they lend more to borrowers with a bad credit history and with high uncertainty. Lower interest rates, by contrast, reduce the credit risk of outstanding loans. Loan credit risk is maximized when both interest rates are very low prior to loan origination and interest rates are very high over the life of the loan. Our results suggest that low interest rates increase bank risk-taking, reduce credit risk in banks in the very short run but worsen it in the medium run. Risk-taking is not equal for all type of banks: Small banks, banks with fewer lending opportunities, banks with less sophisticated depositors, and savings or cooperative banks take on more extra risk than other banks when interest rates are lower. Higher GDP growth reduces credit risk on both new and outstanding loans, in stark contrast to the differential effects of monetary policy.

An investigative study into the sensitivity of different partial discharge φ-q-n pattern resolution sizes on statistical neural network pattern classification

This paper investigates the sensitivity of statistical fingerprints to different phase resolution (PR) and amplitude bins (AB) sizes of partial discharge (PD) φ-q-n (phase-amplitude-number) patterns. In particular, this paper compares the capability of the ensemble neural network (ENN) and the single neural network (SNN) in recognizing and distinguishing different resolution sizes of φ-q-n discharge patterns. The training fingerprints for both the SNN and ENN comprise statistical fingerprints from different φ-q-n measurements. The result shows that there exists statistical distinction for different PR and AB sizes on some of the statistical fingerprints. Additionally, the ENN and SNN outputs change depending on training and testing with different PR and AB sizes. Furthermore, the ENN appears to be more sensitive in recognizing and discriminating the resolution changes when compared with the SNN. Finally, the results are assessed for practical implementation in the power industry and benefits to practitioners in the field are highlighted

Appearance and Maturation of T-Cell Subsets During Rat Thymus Ontogeny

In previous papers, we have described the ontogenetical development of thymic stromal-cell components (epithelium, macrophages, dendritic cells) of Wistar rats. Here, we correlate those results with the maturation of rat T-cell precursors along the fetal and postnatal life. First T-cell precursors, which colonize the thymus anlage around days 13-14 of gestation, largely express CD45, CD43, CD53, and Thy 1 cell markers, and in a lesser proportion the OX22 antigen. Rat CD3-CD4-CD8- thymocytes present in the earliest stages of gestation could be subdivided in three major cell subpopulations according to the CD44 and CD25 expression: CD44-/+CD25- → CD44+CD25+ → CD44+CD25- On fetal days 17-18, a certain proportion of CD4-CD8-cells weakly,express the TcRβ chain, in correlation with the appearance of the first immature CD4-CD8+ thymocytes. This cell subpopulation, in progress to the CD4+CD8+ stage, upregulates CD8α before the CD8β chain, expresses the CD53 antigen, and exhibits a high proliferative rate. First mature thymocytes arising from the DP (CD4+CD8+) cells appear on fetal days 20-21. Then, the CD4+:CD8+ cell ratio is ≤1 changing to adult values (2-3) just after birth. Also, the percentage of VβTcR repertoire covered in adult thymus is reached during the postnatal period, being lower during the fetal life. Finally, in correlation with the beginning of thymocyte emigration to the periphery a new wave of T-cell maturation apparently occurs in the perinatal rat thymus

A Census of Star-Forming Galaxies in the z~9-10 Universe based on HST+Spitzer Observations Over 19 CLASH clusters: Three Candidate z~9-10 Galaxies and Improved Constraints on the Star Formation Rate Density at z~9

We utilise a two-color Lyman-Break selection criterion to search for z~9-10 galaxies over the first 19 clusters in the CLASH program. A systematic search yields three z~9-10 candidates. While we have already reported the most robust of these candidates, MACS1149-JD, two additional z~9 candidates are also found and have H_{160}-band magnitudes of ~26.2-26.9. A careful assessment of various sources of contamination suggests <~1 contaminants for our z~9-10 selection. To determine the implications of these search results for the LF and SFR density at z~9, we introduce a new differential approach to deriving these quantities in lensing fields. Our procedure is to derive the evolution by comparing the number of z~9-10 galaxy candidates found in CLASH with the number of galaxies in a slightly lower redshift sample (after correcting for the differences in selection volumes), here taken to be z~8. This procedure takes advantage of the fact that the relative volumes available for the z~8 and z~9-10 selections behind lensing clusters are not greatly dependent on the details of the lensing models. We find that the normalization of the UV LF at z~9 is just 0.28_{-0.20}^{+0.39}\times that at z~8, ~1.4_{-0.8}^{+3.0}x lower than extrapolating z~4-8 LF results. While consistent with the evolution in the UV LF seen at z~4-8, these results marginally favor a more rapid evolution at z>8. Compared to similar evolutionary findings from the HUDF, our result is less insensitive to large-scale structure uncertainties, given our many independent sightlines on the high-redshift universe.Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures, 5 tables, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal, updated to include the much deeper Spitzer/IRAC observations over our three z~9-10 candidate

The trend of disruption in the functional brain network topology of Alzheimer’s disease

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a progressive disorder associated with cognitive dysfunction that alters the brain’s functional connectivity. Assessing these alterations has become a topic of increasing interest. However, a few studies have examined different stages of AD from a complex network perspective that cover different topological scales. This study used resting state fMRI data to analyze the trend of functional connectivity alterations from a cognitively normal (CN) state through early and late mild cognitive impairment (EMCI and LMCI) and to Alzheimer’s disease. The analyses had been done at the local (hubs and activated links and areas), meso (clustering, assortativity, and rich-club), and global (small-world, small-worldness, and efficiency) topological scales. The results showed that the trends of changes in the topological architecture of the functional brain network were not entirely proportional to the AD progression. There were network characteristics that have changed non-linearly regarding the disease progression, especially at the earliest stage of the disease, i.e., EMCI. Further, it has been indicated that the diseased groups engaged somatomotor, frontoparietal, and default mode modules compared to the CN group. The diseased groups also shifted the functional network towards more random architecture. In the end, the methods introduced in this paper enable us to gain an extensive understanding of the pathological changes of the AD process

The Gaia-ESO Survey: the inner disk, intermediate-age open cluster Trumpler 23

Context. Trumpler 23 is a moderately populated, intermediate-age open cluster within the solar circle at a RGC ~ 6 kpc. It is in a crowded field very close to the Galactic plane and the color–magnitude diagram shows significant field contamination and possible differential reddening; it is a relatively understudied cluster for these reasons, but its location makes it a key object for determining Galactic abundance distributions. Aims. New data from the Gaia-ESO Survey enable the first ever radial velocity and spectroscopic metallicity measurements for this cluster. We aim to use velocities to isolate cluster members, providing more leverage for determining cluster parameters. Methods. Gaia-ESO Survey data for 167 potential members have yielded radial velocity measurements, which were used to determine the systemic velocity of the cluster and membership of individual stars. Atmospheric parameters were also used as a check on membership when available. Literature photometry was used to re-determine cluster parameters based on radial velocity member stars only; theoretical isochrones are fit in the V, V−I diagram. Cluster abundance measurements of ten radial-velocity member stars with high-resolution spectroscopy are presented for 24 elements. These abundances have been compared to local disk stars, and where possible placed within the context of literature gradient studies. Results. We find Trumpler 23 to have an age of 0.80 ± 0.10 Gyr, significant differential reddening with an estimated mean cluster E(V−I) of 1.02+0.14-0.09, and an apparent distance modulus of 14.15 ± 0.20. We find an average cluster metallicity of [Fe/H] = 0.14 ± 0.03 dex, a solar [α/Fe] abundance, and notably subsolar [s-process/Fe] abundances