An iconic approach to representing climate change

In order to meet the UK Government's 60% greenhouse gas emissions reduction target, there is a need for non-experts to be meaningfully engaged with the issue of climate change. This thesis investigates the value of engaging non-experts with climate change at the individual level. Research demonstrates that individuals perceive climate change as temporally and spatially remote, and not of personal concern. There are psychological, social and institutional barriers to meaningful engagement with climate change. More effective methods for engaging the public with climate change are needed which address the psychological barriers to change. An 'iconic' approach was developed to harness the emotive and visual power of climate icons with a rigorous scientific analysis of climate impacts under a different climate future. 'I~ons' are defined as tangible entities which will be impacted by climate change, considered worthy of respect by the viewer, and to which the viewer can relate to and feel empathy· for. Such icons already exist: for example, melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet or Thermohaline Circulation shutdown. However, these 'expert-led' icons have failed to engage non-experts. The selection of nonexpert icons enables individuals to engage with climate change through their personal perceptions and values. A robust sourcing for 'non-expert icons' was carried out using focus groups and online survey methodologies. A suite of icons representative of the reasoning behind individuals' non-expert icons was selected. Expert-led icons were identified from 'Sleeping 9iants' emerging from the Exeter Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change conference. Impact assessments were then carried out for the suite of expert-led and non-expert icons under a specified greenhouse gas emissions scenario and to an imaginable timescale. Methodologies used to investigate climate impacts on the icons included a survey of expert opinion, quantitative modelling and spatial analysis using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The cognitive and affective impact of the non-expert and expert-led icons upon individuals was investigated through an evaluative pre/post test workshop. The expert-led icons· generally disengaged individuals. Expert-led icons had little personal impact and invoked emotions such as helplessness or boredom, and were considered too scientific or complex. Conversely, non-expert icons tended to impact upon the individual, the local area or nature; and invoked affective and cognitive engagement with climate change.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Pair-based likelihood approximations for stochastic epidemic models

Fitting stochastic epidemic models to data is a non-standard problem because data on the infection processes defined in such models are rarely observed directly. This in turn means that the likelihood of the observed data is intractable in the sense that it is very computationally expensive to obtain. Although data-augmentated Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide a solution to this problem, employing a tractable augmented likelihood, such methods typically deteriorate in large populations due to poor mixing and increased computation time. Here we describe a new approach that seeks to approximate the likelihood by exploiting the underlying structure of the epidemic model. Simulation study results show that this approach can be a serious competitor to data-augmented MCMC methods. Our approach can be applied to a wide variety of disease transmission models, and we provide examples with applications to the common cold, Ebola and foot-and-mouth disease

Multimodal imaging of temporal processing in typical and atypical language development

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/110858/1/nyas12688.pd

On faces of the Kunz cone and the numerical semigroups within them

A numerical semigroup is a cofinite subset of the non-negative integers that is closed under addition and contains 0. Each numerical semigroup $S$ with fixed smallest positive element $m$ corresponds to an integer point in a rational polyhedral cone $\mathcal C_m$, called the Kunz cone. Moreover, numerical semigroups corresponding to points in the same face $F \subseteq \mathcal C_m$ are known to share many properties, such as the number of minimal generators. In this work, we classify which faces of $\mathcal C_m$ contain points corresponding to numerical semigroups. Additionally, we obtain sharp bounds on the number of minimal generators of $S$ in terms of the dimension of the face of $\mathcal C_m$ containing the point corresponding to $S$

The experience of mortgage distress in Western Sydney

Mortgage distress is affecting a growing number of Australian households. Distress ranges from arrears in mortgage payments to defaults, foreclosures and repossessions. The impacts of mortgage distress are complex and include issues relating to the ongoing financial viability of the affected households, wider neighbourhood effects, and a range of psychological and social impacts. In recent years, mortgage stress has had a consistently higher prevalence in certain parts of Western Sydney than in any other region across Australia.This study is an attempt to uncover the experiences of mortgage distress in Western Sydney and of mortgage holders’ coping strategies. While not claiming to be a representative sample of mortgagors in distress, the report reveals much about the circumstances contributing to mortgage distress and its considerable impacts on the lives of those affected

Normalization of Sequential Top-Down Tree-to-Word Transducers

International audienceWe study normalization of deterministic sequential top-down tree-to-word transducers (STWs), that capture the class of deterministic top-down nested-word to word transducers. We identify the subclass of earliest STWs (eSTWs) that yield normal forms when minimized. The main result of this paper is an effective normalization procedure for STWs. It consists of two stages: we first convert a given STW to an equivalent eSTW, and then, we minimize the eSTW. Keywords: formal language theory, tree automata, transformations, XML databases, XSLTExtended Version: A long version is available here.</p

Assessment of two types of passive sampler for the efficient recovery of SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses from wastewater

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has proven to be a useful surveillance tool during the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, and has driven research into evaluating the most reliable and cost-effective techniques for obtaining a representative sample of wastewater. When liquid samples cannot be taken efficiently, passive sampling approaches have been used, however, insufficient data exists on their usefulness for multi-virus capture and recovery. In this study, we compared the virus-binding capacity of two passive samplers (cotton-based tampons and ion exchange filter papers) in two different water types (deionised water and wastewater). Here we focused on the capture of wastewater-associated viruses including Influenza A and B (Flu-A & B), SARS-CoV-2, human adenovirus (AdV), norovirus GII (NoVGII), measles virus (MeV), pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV), the faecal marker crAssphage and the process control virus Pseudomonas virus phi6. After deployment, we evaluated four different methods to recover viruses from the passive samplers namely, (i) phosphate buffered saline (PBS) elution followed by polyethylene glycol (PEG) precipitation, (ii) beef extract (BE) elution followed by PEG precipitation, (iii) no-elution into PEG precipitation, and (iv) direct extraction. We found that the tampon-based passive samplers had higher viral recoveries in comparison to the filter paper. Overall, the preferred viral recovery method from the tampon passive samplers was the no-elution/PEG precipitation method. Furthermore, we evidenced that non-enveloped viruses had higher percent recoveries from the passive samplers than enveloped viruses. This is the first study of its kind to assess passive sampler and viral recovery methods amongst a plethora of viruses commonly found in wastewater or used as a viral surrogate in wastewater studies

Investigating odonates' response to climate change in Great Britain: a tale of two strategies

Aim Species are largely thought to maintain broadly static niches over time, an assumption underpinning much theoretical ecology including the implementation of ecological models to project species' current and future distributions. Here, we assess niche conservatism in odonates in Great Britain over the past six decades by simultaneously quantifying changes in species geographic distribution and evaluating temporal trends in species realised climatic niche.LocationGreat Britain. Methods Distributional changes were assessed by calculating changes in species distribution centres and deriving occupancy trends. Changes in climatic niches were assessed using a principal component analysis to quantify niche overlap, using information on both climate averages and extremes. Results We show that dragonflies and damselflies displayed distinct responses to changing climatic conditions. Dragonflies shifting to higher latitudes maintained, on average, greater consistency in their climatic niches, providing evidence for climate tracking. Greater climate niche flexibility and increased occupancy over time, on the other hand, were more common in damselflies. Main Conclusions We unveil evidence for climatic niche divergence in damselflies on a national scale, casting doubt on the relevance of species distribution models for predicting the impacts of climate change on this, and potentially other, groups of species. More broadly, our results call for more multi‐species temporal comparisons of spatial distributions and climate niches during recent periods of changes in climatic conditions to improve our ability to contrast species' vulnerability risk to the ongoing climate crisis

Autonomic modulation in patients with heart failure increases beat-to-beat variability of ventricular action potential duration

Background: Exaggerated beat-to-beat variability of ventricular action potential duration (APD) is linked to arrhythmogenesis. Sympathetic stimulation has been shown to increase QT interval variability, but its effect on ventricular APD in humans has not been determined.Methods and Results: Eleven heart failure patients with implanted bi-ventricular pacing devices had activation–recovery intervals (ARI, surrogate for APD) recorded from LV epicardial electrodes under constant RV pacing. Sympathetic activity was increased using a standard autonomic challenge (Valsalva) and baroreceptor indices were applied to determine changes in sympathetic stimulation. Two Valsalvas were performed for each study and were repeated, both off and on bisoprolol. In addition sympathetic nerve activity (SNA) was measured from skin electrodes on the thorax using a novel validated method. Autonomic modulation significantly increased mean short-term variability in ARI; off bisoprolol mean STV increased from 3.73 ± 1.3 to 5.27 ± 1.04 ms (p = 0.01), on bisoprolol mean STV of ARI increased from 4.15 ± 1.14 to 4.62 ± 1 ms (p = 0.14). Adrenergic indices of the Valsalva demonstrated significantly reduced beta-adrenergic function when on bisoprolol (Δ pressure recovery time, p = 0.04; Δ systolic overshoot in Phase IV, p = 0.05). Corresponding increases in SNA from rest both off (1.4 uV, p &lt; 0.01) and on (0.7 uV, p &lt; 0.01) bisoprolol were also seen.Conclusions: Beat-to-beat variability of ventricular APD increases during brief periods of increased sympathetic activity in patients with heart failure. Bisoprolol reduces, but does not eliminate, these effects. This may be important in the genesis of ventricular arrhythmias in heart failure patients

Relationship Between Hispanic Nativity, Residential Environment, and Productive Activity Among Individuals With Traumatic Brain Injury: A TBI Model Systems Study

Objective: To examine the influence of nativity and residential characteristics on productive activity among Hispanics at 1 year after traumatic brain injury (TBI). Setting: Acute rehabilitation facilities and community follow-up. Participants: A total of 706 Hispanic individuals in the TBI Model Systems National Database. Design: Secondary data analysis from a multicenter longitudinal cohort study. Main Measures: Nativity (foreign born or US native), productive activity derived from interview questions regarding employment status, and other demographic information. Census data were extracted by zip code to represent residential characteristics of aggregate household income and proportion of foreign language speakers (FLS). Results: Among foreign-born individuals with TBI, those living in an area with a higher proportion of FLS were 2.8 times more likely to be productive than those living in areas with a lower proportion of FLS. Among individuals living in an area with a lower proportion of FLS, US-born Hispanics were 2.7 times more likely to be productive compared with Hispanic immigrants. Conclusion: The relationship between nativity and productive activity at 1 year post-TBI was moderated by the residential proportion of FLS. Findings underscore the importance of considering environmental factors when designing vocational rehabilitation interventions for Hispanics after TBI