A Slippery Slope: The Domestic Diffusion of Ethnic Civil War

The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqw031Why do most civil wars occur in a relatively small number of countries? We answer this question by analyzing how civil wars diffuse in multiethnic states. Our theory outlines two motivation and two opportunity mechanisms that trigger additional ethnic rebellions in the same state. First, ongoing civil wars motivate members of other ethnic groups to mobilize in reaction to the negative externalities of nearby conflict. Second, ethnic groups emulate nearby rebel groups as a means of addressing preexisting grievances. Third, fighting multiple civil wars drains state capacity, opening the door for additional challengers to rebel against the government. Finally, long-lasting civil wars signal that the state is unable to defeat active rebels, thus creating incentives for new challengers to take up arms. We test our mechanisms in all multiethnic states with a history of armed conflict between 1946 and 2006. Using Geographic Information Systems, we construct overlap and minimum distance measures between ethnic groups’ settlement patterns and conflict zones. Our statistical analysis indicates that new ethnic civil war onsets are more likely in the vicinity of ongoing armed conflicts. Ethnic civil wars also diffuse as governments face an increasing number of rebels and longer rebellions

A Slippery Slope: The Domestic Diffusion of Ethnic Civil War

Why do most civil wars occur in a relatively small number of countries? We answer this question by analyzing how civil wars diffuse in multiethnic states. Our theory outlines two motivation and two opportunity mechanisms that trigger additional ethnic rebellions in the same state. First, ongoing civil wars motivate members of other ethnic groups to mobilize in reaction to the negative externalities of nearby conflict. Second, ethnic groups emulate nearby rebel groups as a means of addressing preexisting grievances. Third, fighting multiple civil wars drains state capacity, opening the door for additional challengers to rebel against the government. Finally, long-lasting civil wars signal that the state is unable to defeat active rebels, thus creating incentives for new challengers to take up arms. We test our mechanisms in all multiethnic states with a history of armed conflict between 1946 and 2006. Using Geographic Information Systems, we construct overlap and minimum distance measures between ethnic groups’ settlement patterns and conflict zones. Our statistical analysis indicates that new ethnic civil war onsets are more likely in the vicinity of ongoing armed conflicts. Ethnic civil wars also diffuse as governments face an increasing number of rebels and longer rebellions

Welfare Diplomacy: Benchmarking Language Model Cooperation

The growing capabilities and increasingly widespread deployment of AI systems necessitate robust benchmarks for measuring their cooperative capabilities. Unfortunately, most multi-agent benchmarks are either zero-sum or purely cooperative, providing limited opportunities for such measurements. We introduce a general-sum variant of the zero-sum board game Diplomacy -- called Welfare Diplomacy -- in which players must balance investing in military conquest and domestic welfare. We argue that Welfare Diplomacy facilitates both a clearer assessment of and stronger training incentives for cooperative capabilities. Our contributions are: (1) proposing the Welfare Diplomacy rules and implementing them via an open-source Diplomacy engine; (2) constructing baseline agents using zero-shot prompted language models; and (3) conducting experiments where we find that baselines using state-of-the-art models attain high social welfare but are exploitable. Our work aims to promote societal safety by aiding researchers in developing and assessing multi-agent AI systems. Code to evaluate Welfare Diplomacy and reproduce our experiments is available at https://github.com/mukobi/welfare-diplomacy

Dietary intake relative to cardiovascular disease risk factors in individuals with chronic spinal cord injury: a pilot study

BACKGROUND: The relationship between cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and dietary intake is unknown among individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI). OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between consumption of selected food groups (dairy, whole grains, fruits, vegetables, and meat) and CVD risk factors in individuals with chronic SCI. METHODS: A cross-sectional substudy of individuals with SCI to assess CVD risk factors and dietary intake in comparison with age-, gender-, and race-matched able-bodied individuals enrolled in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study. Dietary history, blood pressure, waist circumference (WC), fasting blood glucose, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), lipids, glucose, and insulin data were collected from 100 SCI participants who were 38 to 55 years old with SCI >1 year and compared to 100 matched control participants from the CARDIA study. RESULTS: Statistically significant differences between SCI and CARDIA participants were identified in WC (39.2 vs 36.2 in.; P < .001) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C; 39.2 vs 47.5 mg/dL; P < .001). Blood pressure, total cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose, insulin, and hs-CRP were similar between SCI and CARDIA participants. No significant relation between CVD risk factors and selected food groups was seen in the SCI participants. CONCLUSION: SCI participants had adverse WC and HDL-C compared to controls. This study did not identify a relationship between consumption of selected food groups and CVD risk factors

Bridge to the stars: A mission concept to an interstellar object

Exoplanet discoveries since the mid-1990’s have revealed an astounding diversity of planetary systems. Studying these systems is essential to understanding planetary formation processes, as well as the development of life in the universe. Unfortunately, humanity can only observe limited aspects of exoplanetary systems by telescope, and the significant distances between stars presents a barrier to in situ exploration. In this study, we propose an alternative path to gain insight into exoplanetary systems: Bridge, a mission concept design to fly by an interstellar object as it passes through our solar system. Designed as a New Frontiers-class mission during the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Planetary Science Summer School, Bridge would provide a unique opportunity to gain insight into potential physical, chemical, and biological differences between solar systems as well as the possible exchange of planetary materials between them. Bridge employs ultraviolet/visible, near-infrared, and mid-infrared point spectrometers, a visible camera, and a guided impactor. We also provide a quantitative Monte Carlo analysis that estimates wait times for a suitable target, and examines key trades between ground storage and a parking orbit, power sources, inner versus outer solar system encounters, and launch criteria. Due to the fleeting nature of interstellar objects, reaching an interstellar object may require an extended ground storage phase for the spacecraft until a suitable ISO is discovered, followed by a rapid response launch strategy. To enable rapid response missions designed to intercept such unique targets, language would need to be added to future NASA announcements of opportunity such that ground storage and rapid response would be allowable components of a proposed mission

Active platform stabilization with a 6D seismometer

We demonstrate the control scheme of an active platform with a six degree of freedom (6D) seismometer. The inertial sensor simultaneously measures translational and tilt degrees of freedom of the platform and does not require any additional sensors for the stabilization. We show that a feedforward cancelation scheme can efficiently decouple tilt-to-horizontal coupling of the seismometer in the digital control scheme. We stabilize the platform in the frequency band from 250 mHz up to 10 Hz in the translational (X, Y) degrees of freedom and achieve a suppression factor of 100 around 1 Hz. Further suppression of ground vibrations was limited by the non-linear response of the piezo actuators of the platform and by its limited range (5 lm). In this paper, we discuss the 6D seismometer, its control scheme, and the limitations of the test bed

The face of the party? Leadership personalisation in British campaigns

The personal characteristics of political elites play an important role in British elections. While the personalisation of the media’s election coverage has been the subject of much debate, we know less about the conditions under which voters receive personalised messages directly from elites during the campaign. In this paper, we use a new dataset that includes more than 3,300 local communications from the 2015 general election to explore variation in the personalisation of campaign messaging. We find that there is systemic variation in terms of where photographs of party leaders are included in election communications, which provides further evidence that campaign messages are deployed strategically to portray the candidate – and their party – in the best possible light