A nationwide causal mediation analysis of survival following ST-elevation myocardial infarction

Objective: International studies report a decline in mortality following ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The extent to which the observed improvements in STEMI survival are explained by temporal changes in patient characteristics and utilisation of treatments is unknown. Methods: Cohort study using national registry data from the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project between first January 2004 and 30th June 2013. 232 353 survivors of hospitalisation with STEMI as recorded in 247 hospitals in England and Wales. Flexible parametric survival modelling and causal mediation analysis were used to estimate the relative contribution of temporal changes in treatments and patient characteristics on improved STEMI survival. Results: Over the study period, unadjusted survival at 6 months and 1 year improved by 0.9% and 1.0% on average per year (HR: 0.991, 95% CI: 0.988 to 0.994 and HR: 0.990, 95% CI: 0.987 to 0.993, respectively). The uptake of primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) (HR: 1.025, 95% CI: 1.021 to 1.028) and increased prescription of P2Y12 inhibitors (HR: 1.035, 95% CI: 1.031 to 1.039) were significantly associated with improvements in 1-year survival. Primary PCI explained 16.8% (95% CI: 10.8% to 31.6%) and 13.2% (9.2% to 21.9%) of the temporal survival improvements at 6 months and 1 year, respectively, whereas P2Y12 inhibitor prescription explained 5.3% (3.6% to 8.8%) of the temporal improvements at 6 months but not at 1 year. Conclusions: For STEMI in England and Wales, improvements in survival between 2004 and 2013 were significantly explained by the uptake of primary PCI and increased use of P2Y12 inhibitors at 6 months and primary PCI only at 1 year. Trial registration number: NCT0374969

A user-friendly risk-score for predicting in-hospital cardiac arrest among patients admitted with suspected non ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome – the SAFER-score

Aim: To develop a simple risk-score model for predicting in-hospital cardiac arrest (CA) among patients hospitalized with suspected non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). Methods: Using the Swedish Web-system for Enhancement and Development of Evidence-based care in Heart disease Evaluated According to Recommended Therapies (SWEDEHEART), we identified patients (n = 242 303) admitted with suspected NSTE-ACS between 2008 and 2014. Logistic regression was used to assess the association between 26 candidate variables and in-hospital CA. A risk-score model was developed and validated using a temporal cohort (n = 126 073) comprising patients from SWEDEHEART between 2005 and 2007 and an external cohort (n = 276 109) comprising patients from the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) between 2008 and 2013. Results: The incidence of in-hospital CA for NSTE-ACS and non-ACS was lower in the SWEDEHEART-derivation cohort than in MINAP (1.3% and 0.5% vs. 2.3% and 2.3%). A seven point, five variable risk score (age ≥60 years (1 point), ST-T abnormalities (2 points), Killip Class >1 (1 point), heart rate <50 or ≥100 bpm (1 point), and systolic blood pressure <100 mmHg (2 points) was developed. Model discrimination was good in the derivation cohort (c-statistic 0.72) and temporal validation cohort (c-statistic 0.74), and calibration was reasonable with a tendency towards overestimation of risk with a higher sum of score points. External validation showed moderate discrimination (c-statistic 0.65) and calibration showed a general underestimation of predicted risk. Conclusions: A simple points score containing five variables readily available on admission predicts in-hospital CA for patients with suspected NSTE-ACS

Standardized Outcome Measurement for Patients With Coronary Artery Disease: Consensus From the International Consortium for Health Outcomes Measurement (ICHOM)

Coronary artery disease (CAD) outcomes consistently improve when they are routinely measured and provided back to physicians and hospitals. The International Consortium for Health Outcomes Measurement (ICHOM) established a Working Group to define a standard set of outcome measures and risk factors of CAD care. Members were drawn from 4 continents and 6 countries. Using a modified Delphi method, the Group defined who should be tracked, what should be measured, and when such measurements should be performed. Thirteen specific outcomes were chosen, including acute complications occurring within 30 days of acute myocardial infarction, coronary artery bypass grafting surgery, or percutaneous coronary intervention; and longitudinal outcomes for up to 5 years for patient‐reported health status (Seattle Angina Questionnaire [SAQ‐7], elements of Rose Dyspnea Score, and Patient Health Questionnaire [PHQ‐2]), cardiovascular hospital admissions, cardiovascular procedures, renal failure, and mortality. Baseline demographic, cardiovascular disease, and comorbidity information is included to improve the interpretability of comparisons

Development and Validation of a Novel Risk Score for In-Hospital Major Bleeding in Acute Myocardial Infarction:-The SWEDEHEART Score

Background: Bleeding risk stratification in acute coronary syndrome is of highest clinical interest but current risk scores have limitations. We sought to develop and validate a new in‐hospital bleeding risk score for patients with acute myocardial infarction. Methods and Results: From the nationwide SWEDEHEART (Swedish Web‐System for Enhancement and Development of Evidence‐Based Care in Heart Disease Evaluated According to Recommended Therapies) register, 97,597 patients with acute myocardial infarction enrolled from 2009 until 2014 were selected. A full model with 23 predictor variables and 8 interaction terms was fitted using logistic regression. The full model was approximated by a model with 5 predictors and 1 interaction term. Calibration, discrimination, and clinical utility was evaluated and compared with the ACTION (Acute Coronary Treatment and Intervention Outcomes Network) and CRUSADE (Can Rapid Risk Stratification of Unstable Angina Patients Suppress Adverse Outcomes With Early Implementation of the ACC/AHA Guidelines) scores. Internal and temporal validity was assessed. In‐hospital major bleeding, defined as fatal, intracranial, or requiring surgery or blood transfusion, occurred in 1356 patients (1.4%). The 5 predictors in the approximate model that constituted the SWEDEHEART score were hemoglobin, age, sex, creatinine, and C‐reactive protein. The ACTION and CRUSADE scores were poorly calibrated in the derivation cohort and therefore were recalibrated. The SWEDEHEART score showed higher discriminative ability than both recalibrated scores, overall (C‐index 0.80 versus 0.73/0.72) and in all predefined subgroups. Decision curve analysis demonstrated consistently positive and higher net benefit for the SWEDEHEART score compared with both recalibrated scores across all clinically relevant decision thresholds. The original ACTION and CRUSADE scores showed negative net benefit. Conclusions: The 5‐item SWEDEHEART score discriminates in‐hospital major bleeding in patients with acute myocardial infarction and has superior model performance compared with the recalibrated ACTION and CRUSADE scores

Targeting the IGF-1R signaling and mechanisms for epigenetic gene silencing in human multiple myeloma

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a B cell malignancy characterized by the expansion of clonal plasmablast/plasma cells within the bone-marrow. It is well established that the bone-marrow microenvironment has a pivotal role in providing critical cytokines and cell–cell interactions to support the growth and survival of the MM tumor clone. The pathogenesis of MM is, however, only fragmentarily understood. Detailed genomic analysis reveals a heterogeneous and complex pattern of structural and numerical chromosomal aberrations. In this review we will discuss some of the recent results on the functional role and potential clinical use of the IGF-1R, one of the major mediators of growth and survival for MM. We will also describe some of our results on epigenetic gene silencing in MM, as it may indeed constitute a novel basis for the understanding of tumor initiation and maintenance in MM and thus may change the current view on treatment strategies for MM

Using big data from health records from four countries to evaluate chronic disease outcomes: a study in 114 364 survivors of myocardial infarction

Aims: to assess the international validity of using hospital record data to compare long-term outcomes in heart attack survivors. Methods and results: we used samples of national, ongoing, unselected record sources to assess three outcomes: cause death; a composite of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and all-cause death; and hospitalized bleeding. Patients aged 65 years and older entered the study 1 year following the most recent discharge for acute MI in 2002–11 [n = 54 841 (Sweden), 53 909 (USA), 4653 (England), and 961 (France)]. Across each of the four countries, we found consistent associations with 12 baseline prognostic factors and each of the three outcomes. In each country, we observed high 3-year crude cumulative risks of all-cause death (from 19.6% [England] to 30.2% [USA]); the composite of MI, stroke, or death [from 26.0% (France) to 36.2% (USA)]; and hospitalized bleeding [from 3.1% (France) to 5.3% (USA)]. After adjustments for baseline risk factors, risks were similar across all countries [relative risks (RRs) compared with Sweden not statistically significant], but higher in the USA for all-cause death [RR USA vs. Sweden, 1.14 (95% confidence interval 1.04–1.26)] and hospitalized bleeding [RR USA vs. Sweden, 1.54 (1.21–1.96)]. Conclusion: the validity of using hospital record data is supported by the consistency of estimates across four countries of a high adjusted risk of death, further MI, and stroke in the chronic phase after MI. The possibility that adjusted risks of mortality and bleeding are higher in the USA warrants further study

International comparisons of the management of patients with non-ST segment elevation acute myocardial infarction in the United Kingdom, Sweden, and the United States: The MINAP/NICOR, SWEDEHEART/RIKS-HIA, and ACTION Registry-GWTG/NCDR registries

To compare management of patients with acute non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) in three developed countries with national ongoing registrie

Characteristics and outcomes in patients with a prior myocardial infarction treated with extended dual antiplatelet therapy with ticagrelor 60 mg: findings from ALETHEIA, a multi-country observational study

Background Guidelines recommend extended dual antiplatelet therapy, including ticagrelor 60 mg twice daily, in high-risk post-myocardial infarction (MI) patients who have tolerated 12 months and are not at high bleeding risk. The real-world utilization and bleeding and ischaemic outcomes associated with long-term ticagrelor 60 mg in routine clinical practice have not been well described. Methods Register and claims data from the USA (Optum Clinformatics, IBM MarketScan, and Medicare) and Europe (Sweden, Italy, UK, and Germany) were extracted. Patients initiating ticagrelor 60 mg ≥12 months after MI, meeting eligibility criteria for the PEGASUS-TIMI (Prevention of Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Prior Heart Attack Using Ticagrelor Compared to Placebo on a Background of Aspirin – Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 45) 54 trial, were included. The cumulative incidence of the composite of MI, stroke, or all-cause mortality and that of bleeding requiring hospitalization were calculated. Meta-analyses were performed to combine estimates from each source. Results A total of 7035 patients treated with ticagrelor 60 mg met eligibility criteria. Median age was 67 years and 29% were females; 12% had a history of multiple MIs. The majority (95%) had been treated with ticagrelor 90 mg prior to initiating ticagrelor 60 mg. At 12 months from initiation of ticagrelor 60 mg, the cumulative incidence [95% confidence interval (CI)] of MI, stroke, or mortality was 3.33% (2.73–4.04) and was approximately three-fold the risk of bleeding (0.96%; 0.69–1.33). Conclusions This study provides insights into the use of ticagrelor 60 mg in patients with prior MI in clinical practice. Observed event rates for ischaemic events and bleeding generally align with those in the pivotal trials, support the established safety profile of ticagrelor, and highlight the significant residual ischaemic risk in this population

Performance of Ultra-Deep Pyrosequencing in Analysis of HIV-1 pol Gene Variation

INTRODUCTION: Ultra-deep pyrosequencing (UDPS) has been used to detect minority variants within HIV-1 populations. Some aspects of the quality and reproducibility of UDPS have been previously evaluated, but comprehensive studies are still needed. PRINCIPAL FINDING: In this study the UDPS technology (FLX platform) was evaluated by analyzing a 120 base pair fragment of the HIV-1 pol gene from plasma samples from two patients and artificial mixtures of molecular clones. UDPS was performed using an optimized experimental protocol and an in-house data cleaning strategy. Nine samples and mixtures were analyzed and the average number of reads per sample was 19,404 (range 8,858-26,846). The two patient plasma samples were analyzed twice and quantification of viral variants was found to be highly repeatable for variants representing >0.27% of the virus population, whereas some variants representing 0.11-0.27% were detected in only one of the two UDPS runs. Bland-Altman analysis showed that a repeated measurement would have a 95% likelihood to lie approximately within ±0.5 log(10) of the initial estimate. A similar level of agreement was observed for variant frequency estimates in forward vs. reverse sequencing direction, but here the agreement was higher for common variants than for rare variants. UDPS following PCR amplification with alternative primers indicated that some variants may be incorrectly quantified due to primer-related selective amplification. Finally, the in vitro recombination rate during PCR was evaluated using artificial mixtures of clones and was found to be low. The most abundant in vitro recombinant represented 0.25% of all UDPS reads. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that this UDPS protocol results in low experimental noise and high repeatability, which is relevant for future research and clinical use of the UDPS technology. The low rate of in vitro recombination suggests that this UDPS system can be used to study genetic variants and mutational linkage