Two Stage Procurement Processes With Competitive Suppliers and Uncertain Supplier Quality

This paper considers a sourcing problem faced by a manufacturer who outsources the manufacturing of a product to one of several competing suppliers, whose cost and quality capabilities are unknown. We consider a two-stage sourcing process in which the first stage is the qualification stage, while the second stage is the supplier selection stage. In the first stage, the manufacturer exerts effort to learn about the quality level of each of the suppliers and then must determine the set of qualified suppliers, subject to some tolerance for error. In the second stage, the manufacturer runs a price-only procurement auction, in which the qualified suppliers compete for the manufacturer’s business.We model this two-stage sourcing process with the goal of obtaining insights into manufacturer’s optimal decisions. We seek to determine the optimal qualification standard, the optimal amount of effort to be exerted in the qualification process and the appropriate tolerance for error in the qualification process, and to understand the interactions between these decision variables. We are particularly interested in understanding how the manufacturer can design the process to 1) ensure the firm only sources from qualified suppliers and 2) encourage competition among the suppliers during supplier selection

Hydrodynamics in a shallow seasonally low-inflow estuary following eelgrass collapse

Hydrodynamics play a critical role in mediating biological and ecological processes and can have major impacts on the distribution of habitat-forming species. Low-inflow estuaries are widespread in arid regions and during the dry season in Mediterranean climates. There is a growing need to evaluate dynamics and exchange processes in these systems and the resultant ecological linkages. We investigate the role that hydrodynamics play in shaping environmental gradients in a short and seasonally low-inflow estuary located along the central California coast. Since 2007, eelgrass meadows in Morro Bay have declined by more than 90%, representing the collapse of the major biogenic habitat. Despite the large-scale decline, eelgrass beds near the mouth of the bay remain resilient, suggesting that conditions in certain areas of the bay might allow or impede eelgrass retention and recovery. Oceanographic moorings were deployed throughout the bay during the summer dry season to assess spatial differences in environmental conditions and hydrodynamics across gradients in eelgrass survival. Relative to the mouth of the bay, the back bay water mass was significantly warmer (hyperthermal), more saline (hypersaline), less oxygenated, and more turbid, with longer flushing times, all of which have been identified as significant stressors on seagrasses. Moreover, there is weak exchange between the mouth and the back bay that effectively decouples the two water masses during most periods. Though the causes of the decline are not clear, gradients in environmental conditions driven by bay hydrodynamics appear to be preventing eelgrass recovery and restoration attempts in the back bay and keeping this region in an alternative state dominated by unvegetated intertidal mudflats. Ecosystems in low-inflow estuaries may be especially prone to ecological regime shifts or collapse and may require precautionary monitoring and management. This system and the dramatic ecological change that it has experienced, demonstrate the critical role that hydrodynamics play in ecosystem health and habitat suitability

The factors associated with high-quality communication for critically ill children

OBJECTIVE: Timely, high quality communication with families is essential to family-centered decision-making. Quality communication is represented by widespread documentation of prognostic, goals-of-care conversations (PGOCC) in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) and should occur without variation by patient characteristics. METHODS: Cohort included 645 PICU admissions in the top decile of risk of mortality on admission over six years. Electronic medical records were used to determine PGOCC, diagnosis on admission and complex chronic condition (CCC) status. Multivariate logistic regression and time-to-event analyses were used. RESULTS: Overall, 31% had a documented PGOCC. 51% had CCC status. 11% had an oncologic, 13% had a cardiovascular diagnosis on admission. 94% of patients who died in the PICU had PGOCC documented, but among the 200 patients with documented PGOCC, 78% did not die in the PICU. Oncologic diagnosis on admission was associated with a higher likelihood of PGOCC compared to non-CCC patients (ARR=1.86; SE=0.26) whereas no other diagnosis category reached the level of statistical significance. Median time from admission to PGOCC was 2 days. Age, gender and CCC status were not associated with whether a PGOCC was documented or with time from admission to PGOCC documentation. 45% of PGOCC in the cohort and 50% of conversations in patients with CCC were documented by PICU physicians. CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals the opportunity for improvement in documentation of PGOCC for critically ill children. It raises the questions of why there is variation of PGOCC across disease categories and whether PGOCC should be considered a quality measure for family-centered care

Effects of Estuary-Wide Seagrass Loss on Fish Populations

Globally, habitat loss in coastal marine systems is a major driver of species decline, and estuaries are particularly susceptible to loss. Along the United States Pacific coast, monospecific eelgrass (Zostera marina) beds form the major estuarine vegetated habitat. In Morro Bay, California, eelgrass experienced an unprecedented decline of \u3e 95%, from 139 ha in 2007 to \u3c 6 ha by 2017. Fish populations were compared before and after the eelgrass decline using trawl surveys. Beach seines surveys were also conducted during the post-decline period to characterize species within and outside of remnant eelgrass beds.While the estuary-wide loss of eelgrass did not result in fewer fish or less biomass, it led to changes in species composition. The post-eelgrass decline period was characterized by increases in flatfish (mainly Citharichthys stigmaeus) and staghorn sculpin (Leptocottus armatus), and decreases in habitat specialists including bay pipefish (Syngnathus leptorhynchus) and shiner perch (Cymatogaster aggregata). There were similar trends inside and outside of remnant eelgrass patches. These findings support evidence across multiple ecosystems suggesting that the predominance of habitat-specialists predicts whether or not habitat loss leads to an overall decline in fish abundance. In addition, loss of critical habitats across seascapes can restrict population connectivity and lead to range contraction. For bay pipefish, the loss of eelgrass in Morro Bay is likely to create a population biogeographic divide. Currently, Morro Bay is dominated by flatfish and sculpins, and the longevity of this new ecosystem state will depend on future eelgrass recovery dynamics supported by ecosystem-based management approaches

Enhancement of COPD Biological Networks Using a Web-Based Collaboration Interface

The construction and application of biological network models is an approach that offers a holistic way to understand biological processes involved in disease. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a progressive inflammatory disease of the airways for which therapeutic options currently are limited after diagnosis, even in its earliest stage. COPD network models are important tools to better understand the biological components and processes underlying initial disease development. With the increasing amounts of literature that are now available, crowdsourcing approaches offer new forms of collaboration for researchers to review biological findings, which can be applied to the construction and verification of complex biological networks. We report the construction of 50 biological network models relevant to lung biology and early COPD using an integrative systems biology and collaborative crowd-verification approach. By combining traditional literature curation with a data-driven approach that predicts molecular activities from transcriptomics data, we constructed an initial COPD network model set based on a previously published non-diseased lung-relevant model set. The crowd was given the opportunity to enhance and refine the networks on a website (https://bionet.sbvimprover.com/) and to add mechanistic detail, as well as critically review existing evidence and evidence added by other users, so as to enhance the accuracy of the biological representation of the processes captured in the networks. Finally, scientists and experts in the field discussed and refined the networks during an in-person jamboree meeting. Here, we describe examples of the changes made to three of these networks: Neutrophil Signaling, Macrophage Signaling, and Th1-Th2 Signaling. We describe an innovative approach to biological network construction that combines literature and data mining and a crowdsourcing approach to generate a comprehensive set of COPD-relevant models that can be used to help understand the mechanisms related to lung pathobiology. Registered users of the website can freely browse and download the networks

Can uptake length in strams be determined by nutrient addition experiments? Results from an interbiome comparison study

Nutrient uptake length is an important parnmeter tor quantifying nutrient cycling in streams. Although nutrient tracer additions are the preierred method for measuring uptake length under ambient nutrient concentrations, short-term nutrient addition experiments have more irequently been used to estimate uptake length in streams. Theoretical analysis of the relationship between uptake length determined by nutrient addition experiments (Sw\u27) and uptake length determined by tracer additions (Sw)predicted that Sw\u27 should be consistently longer than 5, , and that the overestimate of uptake length by Sw( should be related to the level of nutrient addition above ambient concentrations and the degree of nutrient limitation. To test these predictions, we used data irom an interbiorne study of NH,- uptake length in which 15NH,- tracer and short-term NH,-a ddition experiments were performed in 10 streams using a uniform experimental approach. The experimental results largely contirmed the theoretical predictions: sw\u27 was consistently longer than Sw and Sw\u27:Sw ratios were directly related to the level of NH,- addition and to indicatvrs of N limitation. The experimentally derived Sw\u27:Sw, ratios were used with the theoretical results to infer the N limitation status of each stream. Together, the theoretical and experimental results showed the tracer experiments should be used whenever possible to determine nutrient uptake length in streams. Nutrient addition experiments may be useful for comparing uptake lengths between different streams or cliiferent times in the same stream. however, provided that nutrient additions are kept as low as possible and of similar miagnitude

Nontarget Effects of the Mosquito Adulticide Pyrethrin Applied Aerially During a West Nile Virus Outbreak in an Urban California Environment

In August 2006, a pyrethrin insecticide synergized with piperonyl butoxide (EverGreen Crop Protection EC 60-6, McLaughlin Gormley King Company, Golden Valley, MN) was sprayed in ultralow volumes over the city of Davis, CA, by the Sacramento-Yolo Mosquito and Vector Control District to control mosquitoes transmitting West Nile virus. Concurrently, we evaluated the impact of the insecticide on nontarget arthropods by 1) comparing mortality of treatment and control groups of sentinel arthropods, and 2) measuring the diversity and abundance of dead arthropods found on treatment and control tarps placed on the ground. We found no effect of spraying on nontarget sentinel species including dragonflies (Sympetrum corruptum), spiders (Argiope aurantia), butterflies (Colias eurytheme), and honeybees (Apis mellifera). In contrast, significantly higher diversity and numbers of nontarget arthropods were found on ground tarps placed in sprayed versus unsprayed areas. All of the dead nontarget species were small-bodied arthropods as opposed to the large-bodied sentinels that were not affected. The mortality of sentinel mosquitoes placed at the same sites as the nontarget sentinels and ground tarps ranged from 0% to 100%. Dead mosquitoes were not found on the ground tarps. We conclude that aerial spraying with pyrethrins had no impact on the large-bodied arthropods placed in the spray zone, but did have a measurable impact on a wide range of small-bodied organisms

NRG Oncology/RTOG 0921: A phase 2 study of postoperative intensity-modulated radiotherapy with concurrent cisplatin and bevacizumab followed by carboplatin and paclitaxel for patients with endometrial cancer.

BACKGROUND: The current study was conducted to assess acute and late adverse events (AEs), overall survival (OS), pelvic failure, regional failure, distant failure, and disease-free survival in a prospective phase 2 clinical trial of bevacizumab and pelvic intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) with chemotherapy in patients with high-risk endometrial cancer. METHODS: Patients underwent a hysterectomy and lymph node removal, and had ≥1 of the following high-risk factors: grade 3 carcinoma with \u3e50% myometrial invasion, grade 2 or 3 disease with any cervical stromal invasion, or known extrauterine extension confined to the pelvis. Treatment included pelvic IMRT and concurrent cisplatin on days 1 and 29 of radiation and bevacizumab (at a dose of 5 mg/kg on days 1, 15, and 29 of radiation) followed by adjuvant carboplatin and paclitaxel for 4 cycles. The primary endpoint was grade ≥3 AEs occurring within the first 90 days (toxicity was graded according to the National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events [version 4.0]). RESULTS: A total of 34 patients were accrued from November 2009 through December 2011, 30 of whom were eligible and received study treatment. Seven of 30 patients (23.3%; 1-sided 95% confidence interval, 10.6%-36.0%) developed grade ≥3 treatment-related nonhematologic toxicities within 90 days; an additional 6 patients experienced grade ≥3 toxicities between 90 and 365 days after treatment. The 2-year OS rate was 96.7% and the disease-free survival rate was 79.1%. No patient developed a within-field pelvic failure and no patients with International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage I to IIIA disease developed disease recurrence after a median follow-up of 26 months. CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative bevacizumab added to chemotherapy and pelvic IMRT appears to be well tolerated and results in high OS rates at 2 years for patients with high-risk endometrial carcinoma

Factors affecting ammonium uptake in streams - an inter-biome perspective

The Lotic Intersite Nitrogen experiment (LINX) was a coordinated study of the relationships between North American biomes and factors governing ammonium uptake in streams. Our objective was to relate inter-biome variability of ammonium uptake to physical, chemical and biological processes. 2. Data were collected from 11 streams ranging from arctic to tropical and from desert to rainforest. Measurements at each site included physical, hydraulic and chemical characteristics, biological parameters, whole-stream metabolism and ammonium uptake. Ammonium uptake was measured by injection of \u275~-ammonium and downstream measurements of 15N-ammonium concentration. 3. We found no general, statistically significant relationships that explained the variability in ammonium uptake among sites. However, this approach does not account for the multiple mechanisms of ammonium uptake in streams. When we estimated biological demand for inorganic nitrogen based on our measurements of in-stream metabolism, we found good correspondence between calculated nitrogen demand and measured assimilative nitrogen uptake. 4. Nitrogen uptake varied little among sites, reflecting metabolic compensation in streams in a variety of distinctly different biomes (autotrophic production is high where allochthonous inputs are relatively low and vice versa). 5. Both autotrophic and heterotrophic metabolism require nitrogen and these biotic processes dominate inorganic nitrogen retention in streams. Factors that affect the relative balance of autotrophic and heterotrophic metabolism indirectly control inorganic nitrogen uptake