Seasonal prediction of lake inflows and rainfall in a hydro-electricity catchment, Waitaki river, New Zealand

The Waitaki River is located in the centre of the South Island of New Zealand, and hydro-electricity generated on the river accounts for 35-40% of New Zealand's electricity. Low inflows in 1992 and 2001 resulted in the threat of power blackouts. Improved seasonal rainfall and inflow forecasts will result in the better management of the water used in hydro-generation on a seasonal basis. Researchers have stated that two key directions in the fields of seasonal rainfall and streamflow forecasting are to a) decrease the spatial scale of forecast products, and b) tailor forecast products to end-user needs, so as to provide more relevant and targeted forecasts. Several season-ahead lake inflow and rainfall forecast models were calibrated for the Waitaki river catchment using statistical techniques to quantify relationships between land-ocean-atmosphere state variables and seasonally lagged inflows and rainfall. Techniques included principal components analysis and multiple linear regression, with cross-validation techniques applied to estimate model error and randomization techniques used to establish the significance of the skill of the models. Many of the models calibrated predict rainfall and inflows better than random chance and better than the long-term mean as a predictor. When compared to the range of all probable inflow seasonal totals (based on the 80-year recorded history in the catchment), 95% confidence limits around most model predictions offer significant skill. These models explain up to 19% of the variance in season-ahead rainfall and inflows in this catchment. Seasonal rainfall and inflow forecasting on a single catchment scale and focussed to end-user needs is possible with some skill in the South Island of New Zealand

An invalidation test for predictive models

The standard means of establishing predictive ability in hydrological models is by finding how well predictions match independent validation data. This matching may not be particularly good in some situations such as seasonal flow forecasting and the question arises as to whether a given model has any predictive capacity. A model-independent significance test of the presence of predictive ability is proposed through random permutations of the predicted values. The null hypothesis of no model predictive ability is accepted if there is a sufficiently high probability that a random reordering of the predicted values will yield a better fit to the validation data. The test can achieve significance even with poor model predictions and its value is for invalidating bad models rather than verifying good models as suitable for application. Some preliminary applications suggest that test outcomes will often be similar at the 0.05 level for standard fit measures using absolute or squared residuals. In addition to hydrological application, the test may also find use as a base quality control measure for predictive models generally

The Promise and Pitfalls of Big Data and Computational Studies of Politics

For Symposium abstract is not require

The influence of African folktales on Sylvia Path's 'Ariel voice'

Includes bibliographical references.In this study I trace the influence of Paul Radin’s collection of African folktales on Sylvia Plath’s Ariel poems. Elements from these tales have been identified by various critics in Plath’s “Poem for a Birthday” sequence which, according to Hughes, she wrote around the same time as she was reading the African tales. However, the importance of the tales to her later poetry has not yet been fully explored in Plath criticism. “Poem for a Birthday” marks an important stage in the emergence of what has become known as Plath’s “Ariel voice” and it is my contention that the influence of the African tales is significantly present even in this later work. The Ariel poems manifest a preoccupation with motherhood which merges thematically with creative fruitfulness. I examine how Plath adopts and uses the concept of “the African” in Ariel to represent repressed aspects of the human psyche which must emerge into consciousness in order for creative expression to attain a level of deep resonance. This engagement is repeatedly presented as a vital “primitive” force emerging from beneath a stony silent reality. The Africanfolktales provided Plath with a novel set of imagery and resources with which to portray this explorative process. I therefore explore Plath’s interest in “primitivism”. I also argue that the orality of the African tales inspired Plath to focus on the oral nature of her later writing. I hope in this study to free Plath’s Ariel voice from the shadow of her suicide. More importantly, I hope to show that her own collection of Ariel poems represented an important moment in her creative development that envisaged a vital spirit of possibility, activated dramatically by an engagement with Radin’s African tales

Collateral damage or a direct hit? Democratic ideals in the age of Trump

How robust are American democratic institutions under Trump’s presidency? Jennifer Earl argues that, even if his actions and lies do not amount to a coordinated effort to undermine democracy, the effect will be to systematically weaken the institutions of US democracy in the long term

The Future of Social Movement Organizations: The Waning Dominance of SMOs Online

For scholars interested in the role of information communication technologies (ICTs) in protest and social movements, the importance of organizations doesn’t appear to be as axiomatic. Work over the past decade researching “Internet activism” has raised fundamental questions about SMOs and their continuing importance to protest: Do organizations play the same role in online protest as they have played in offline protest? Are SMOs as necessary for online movements and protest organizing? What role or functions do SMOs play in online protest? In this article, I address these questions by first surveying social movement research on pre-Internet protest to establish how traditional social movement scholarship understands the role and impact of SMOs. I then compare these expectations to existing work on online protest. In the end, I argue that there are a variety of factors that contribute to the declining necessity of SMOs. Nonetheless, I point to some advantages that SMOs still seem to offer over other forms of organizing. Finally, I discuss the differences between a movement ecology devoid of SMOs versus one that has some level of SMO presence as well as reasons why SMOs might persist, separate and apart from the advantages the organizational form imparts

Effects of Isolated Hip Abductor Fatigue on Frontal Plane Knee Mechanics

Purpose: Anterior cruciate ligament injuries and patellofemoral pain syndrome are both common and significant injuries to the knee that have been associated with hip weakness. Prospective studies have linked the risk of experiencing either injury to alterations in the frontal plane knee angle and moment during activity. These components of knee mechanics are theorized to be affected by hip abductor weakness. The purpose of this study was to identify the effects of isolated hip abductor fatigue-induced weakness on lower extremity kinematics and kinetics in recreationally active women

Leisurely Reshaping a Consumer Health Book Collection

Objective: To discover whether adding leisure books, according to a carefully designed collection development policy, to a consumer health collection (CHC) in a hospital would lead to an increase in usage of the CHC collection, an increased number of monthly subscriptions for membership in the Health Information Center (HIC), and change in the subject of materials circulated. Methods: The collection development policy, specifically for the Leisure Reading Collection (LRC), included bestselling titles within 3 years, award winning fiction, and classics. Librarians also set criteria with clear parameters related to gifts, donations, and collection maintenance. Twenty-four books were selected for the leisure collection in July 2018. After the addition of the LRC, the new circulation numbers were compared to previous data. Staff also measured the number of new applications for monthly membership in the Health Information Center by consumers. The subject content of materials most used prior to the addition of the LRC were compared to the most popular titles post LRC. Results: There has been a 44% increase in books checked out from 2017 to 2018. Monthly memberships have also increased, averaging 18 new members per month compared to 15. The CHC titles most frequently checked out prior to the initiation of the LRC were related to diet and nutrition. After the LRC, the most popular CHC titles were related to nutrition and stress/anxiety. Library staff informally observed the increased use of the LRC by hospital staff. Staff came to the library to check out books for their patients from the LRC. Staff also offered gifts of materials that the collection policy excluded (alternative donation sites were offered.) Attempts to quantify the number of staff using the materials through use of circulation statistics failed due to system limitations. Further research is planned to measure staff participation. Conclusion: With the addition of leisure reading books, the library provided a more valuable and comprehensive collection to its patron base. Changes in the subject material of circulated items, as a result of the LRC were small but worthy of consideration. This addition to the HIC collection has led to a rise in new members, an increase in circulation statistics, and has expanded staff interest in the HIC

Aerodynamic and Aeroelastic Insights using Eigenanalysis

This paper presents novel analytical results for eigenvalues and eigenvectors produced using discrete time aerodynamic and aeroelastic models. An unsteady, incompressible vortex lattice aerodynamic model is formulated in discrete time; the importance of several modeling parameters is examined. A detailed study is made of the behavior of the aerodynamic eigenvalues both in discrete and continuous time. The aerodynamic model is then incorporated into aeroelastic equations of motion. Eigenanalyses of the coupled equations produce stability results and modal characteristics which are valid for critical and non-critical velocities. Insight into the modeling and physics associated with aeroelastic system behavior is gained by examining both the eigenvalues and the eigenvectors. Potential pitfalls in discrete time model construction and analysis are examined

Force and EMG Comparison between a weight-bearing clinical assessment of hip strength assessment and non-weightbearing tasks

Purpose: Altered hip strength is a risk factor for lower extremity injury but its relationship to biomechanical dysfunction is debated. Hip strength assessment methods are criticized for using unidirectional, non-weight-bearing positions which may not be representative of athletic activity and may affect comparison to biomechanical analysis of athletic tasks. A weight-bearing task may better represent hip muscle function during these movements. The aim of this study was to identify EMG and force differences for a clinical weight-bearing method of hip strength (the squat-hold) to traditional non-weight-bearing maximal voluntary isometric contractions (MVICs) for hip abduction, extension, and external rotation. Methods: Twenty-nine healthy volunteers (23 female, 6 male; 23.3±5.8 years) performed the squat-hold, sidelying abduction, prone extension, and seated hip external rotation MVICs. The squat-hold was performed by exerting a bilateral, maximal force against a rigid strap encircling both knees in a semi-squatted position. Surface electromyography (EMG) recorded peak activation of the gluteus medius (GMed), gluteus maximus (Gmax), and tensor fascia lata (TFL) and a handheld dynamometer simultaneously measured force during all tasks. Peak activation was compared between the squat-hold and each MVIC using paired t-tests. Force was compared across tasks using a one-way ANOVA. Results: Greater force was observed during the squat-hold than the external rotation MVIC, but abduction and extension MVICs yielded greater force than the squat-hold. GMax activation was higher during the squat-hold than the external rotation task. TFL activation was higher during the abduction MVIC than the squat-hold but GMed activation was similar across tasks. Peak GMax activation was similar between the extension MVIC and squat-hold. Conclusions: Squat-hold force may have been reduced due to altered gluteal moment arms, which affected the length-tension relationship. Clinicians should consider the squat-hold as an alternative assessment of external rotation force, but should continue to assess abduction and extension force with MVICs. Researchers should examine positions optimizing length-tension relationships to better relate motor function and movement patterns