One-year follow-up of family versus child CBT for anxiety disorders: Exploring the roles of child age and parental intrusiveness.

ObjectiveTo compare the relative long-term benefit of family-focused cognitive behavioral therapy (FCBT) and child-focused cognitive behavioral therapy (CCBT) for child anxiety disorders at a 1-year follow-up.MethodThirty-five children (6-13 years old) randomly assigned to 12-16 sessions of family-focused CBT (FCBT) or child-focused CBT (CCBT) participated in a 1-year follow-up assessment. Independent evaluators, parents, and children rated anxiety and parental intrusiveness. All were blind to treatment condition and study hypotheses.ResultsChildren assigned to FCBT had lower anxiety scores than children assigned to CCBT on follow-up diagnostician- and parent-report scores, but not child-report scores. Exploratory analyses suggested the advantage of FCBT over CCBT may have been evident more for early adolescents than for younger children and that reductions in parental intrusiveness may have mediated the treatment effect.ConclusionFCBT may yield a stronger treatment effect than CCBT that lasts for at least 1 year, although the lack of consistency across informants necessitates a circumspect view of the findings. The potential moderating and mediating effects considered in this study offer interesting avenues for further study

A heuristic for the distribution of point counts for random curves over a finite field

How many rational points are there on a random algebraic curve of large genus $g$ over a given finite field $\mathbb{F}_q$? We propose a heuristic for this question motivated by a (now proven) conjecture of Mumford on the cohomology of moduli spaces of curves; this heuristic suggests a Poisson distribution with mean $q+1+1/(q-1)$. We prove a weaker version of this statement in which $g$ and $q$ tend to infinity, with $q$ much larger than $g$.Comment: 16 pages; v2: refereed version, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 201

A Comprehensive Economic Stimulus for our Failing Economy

This paper presents a comprehensive plan to fix the ailing American economy, through a five-step approach. First, the Federal Reserve must continue to broaden the scope of monetary policy, by purchasing and selling long-term securities. Manipulating expectations through FOMC statements is another tool at the Federal Reserve’s disposal. Secondly, the government must enact fiscal stimulus to stabilize the economy in the short and medium runs, through investment in infrastructure projects, green technology, fusion technology, and science education. Additionally, the new fiscal policy must tackle the mortgage meltdown, which is weighing down the entire economy. Third, the regulatory system must be changed to reduce the likelihood of another financial collapse, starting with the nationalization of the ratings agencies. Ratings should be updated faster, with a numeric grading system rather than the pre-existing letter grades. Fourth, our globalized economy insures that a coordinated globalized response is necessary to recover. Global cooperation to reduce inflation and avoid protectionist policies is vital. Finally, the American bailout policy must be made clear, only giving bailouts to companies that are sound but financially strapped and those that are too big to fail

Multiscale analyses of solar‐induced florescence and gross primary production

Solar‐induced fluorescence (SIF) has shown great promise for probing spatiotemporal variations in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP), the largest component flux of the global carbon cycle. However, scale mismatches between SIF and ground‐based GPP have posed challenges toward fully exploiting these data. We used SIF obtained at high spatial sampling rates and resolution by NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory‐2 satellite to elucidate GPP‐SIF relationships across space and time in the U.S. Corn Belt. Strong linear scaling functions (R2 ≥ 0.79) that were consistent across instantaneous to monthly time scales were obtained for corn ecosystems and for a heterogeneous landscape based on tall tower observations. Although the slope of the corn function was ~56% higher than for the landscape, SIF was similar for corn (C4) and soybean (C3). Taken together, there is strong observational evidence showing robust linear GPP‐SIF scaling that is sensitive to plant physiology but insensitive to the spatial or temporal scale.Key PointsGPP scales linearly with SIF from instantaneous to monthly time scalesAggregating ecosystem GPP‐SIF functions yield a representative landscape relation that matched one obtained directly using tall tower GPPGPP‐SIF relations showed sensitivity to plant physiology but not spatiotemporal scalePeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/135999/1/grl55274_am.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/135999/2/grl55274.pd

What is the Total Deuterium Abundance in the Local Galactic Disk?

Analyses of spectra obtained with the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) satellite, together with spectra from the Copernicus and IMAPS instruments, reveal an unexplained very wide range in the observed deuterium/hydrogen (D/H) ratios for interstellar gas in the Galactic disk beyond the Local Bubble. We argue that spatial variations in the depletion of deuterium onto dust grains can explain these local variations in the observed gas-phase D/H ratios. We present a variable deuterium depletion model that naturally explains the constant measured values of D/H inside the Local Bubble, the wide range of gas-phase D/H ratios observed in the intermediate regime (log N(H I} = 19.2-20.7), and the low gas-phase D/H ratios observed at larger hydrogen column densities. We consider empirical tests of the deuterium depletion hypothesis: (i) correlations of gas-phase D/H ratios with depletions of the refractory metals iron and silicon, and (ii) correlation with the molecular hydrogen rotational temperature. Both of these tests are consistent with deuterium depletion from the gas phase in cold, not recently shocked, regions of the ISM, and high gas-phase D/H ratios in gas that has been shocked or otherwise heated recently. We argue that the most representative value for the total (gas plus dust) D/H ratio within 1 kpc of the Sun is >=23.1 +/- 2.4 (1 sigma) parts per million (ppm). This ratio constrains Galactic chemical evolution models to have a very small deuterium astration factor, the ratio of primordial to total (D/H) ratio in the local region of the Galactic disk, which we estimate to be f_d <= 1.19 +/-0.16 (1 sigma) or <= 1.12 +/- 0.14 (1 sigma) depending on the adopted light element nuclear reaction rates.Comment: 19 pages, 9 figure

Comparing crop growth and carbon budgets simulated across AmeriFlux agricultural sites using the Community Land Model (CLM)

Improvement of process-based crop models is needed to achieve high fidelity forecasts of regional energy, water, and carbon exchanges. However, most state-of-the-art Land Surface Models (LSMs) assessed in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison project (CMIP5) simulated crops as unmanaged C3 or C4 grasses. This study evaluated the crop-enabled version of one of the most widely used LSMs, the Community Land Model (CLM4- Crop), for simulating corn and soybean agro-ecosystems at relatively long-time scales (up to 11 years) using 54 site-years of data. We found that CLM4-Crop had a biased phenology during the early growing season and that carbon emissions from corn and soybean were underestimated. The model adopts universal physiological parameters for all crop types neglecting the fact that different crops have different specific leaf area, leaf nitrogen content and vcmax25, etc. As a result, model performance varied considerably according to crop type. Overall, the energy and carbon exchange of corn systems were better simulated than soybean systems. Long-term simulations at multiple sites showed that gross primary production (GPP) was consistently over-estimated at soybean sites leading to very large short and long-term biases. A modified model, CLM4-CropM’, with optimized phenology and calibrated crop physiological parameters yielded significantly better simulations of gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER) and leaf area index (LAI) at both short (hourly) and long-term (annual to decadal) timescales for both soybean and corn

Optical Multi-Gas Monitor Technology Demonstration on the International Space Station

The International Space Station (ISS) employs a suite of portable and permanently located gas monitors to insure crew health and safety. These sensors are tasked with functions ranging from fixed mass spectrometer based major constituents analysis to portable electrochemical sensor based combustion product monitoring. An all optical multigas sensor is being developed that can provide the specificity of a mass spectrometer with the portability of an electrochemical cell. The technology, developed under the Small Business Innovation Research program, allows for an architecture that is rugged, compact and low power. A four gas version called the Multi-Gas Monitor was launched to ISS in November 2013 aboard Soyuz and activated in February 2014. The portable instrument is comprised of a major constituents analyzer (water vapor, carbon dioxide, oxygen) and high dynamic range real-time ammonia sensor. All species are sensed inside the same enhanced path length optical cell with a separate vertical cavity surface emitting laser (VCSEL) targeted at each species. The prototype is controlled digitally with a field-programmable gate array/microcontroller architecture. The optical and electronic approaches are designed for scalability and future versions could add three important acid gases and carbon monoxide combustion product gases to the four species already sensed. Results obtained to date from the technology demonstration on ISS are presented and discussed

Multiple plumage traits convey information about age and within-age-class qualities of a canopy-dwelling songbird, the Cerulean Warbler

Colorful plumage traits in birds may convey multiple, redundant, or unreliable messages about an individual. Plumage may reliably convey information about disparate qualities such as age, condition, and parental ability because discrete tracts of feathers may cause individuals to incur different intrinsic or extrinsic costs. Few studies have examined the information content of plumage in a species that inhabits forest canopies, a habitat with unique light environments and selective pressures. We investigated the information content of four plumage patches (blue-green crown and rump, tail white, and black breast band) in a canopy-dwelling species, the Cerulean Warbler (Setophaga cerulea), in relation to age, condition, provisioning, and reproduction. We found that older males displayed wider breast bands, greater tail white, and crown and rump feathers with greater blue-green (435–534 nm) chroma and hue than males in their first potential breeding season. In turn, older birds were in better condition (short and long term) and were reproductively superior to younger birds. We propose that these age-related plumage differences (i.e. delayed plumage maturation) were not a consequence of a life history strategy but instead resulted from constraints during early feather molts. Within age classes, we found evidence to support the multiple messages hypothesis. Birds with greater tail white molted tails in faster, those with more exaggerated rump plumage (lower hue, greater blue-green chroma) provisioned more, and those with lower rump blue-green chroma were in better condition. Despite evidence of reliable signaling in this species, we found no strong relationships between plumage and reproductive performance, potentially because factors other than individual differences more strongly influenced fecundity

The Far-Ultraviolet Spectra of TW Hya. II. Models of H2 Fluorescence in a Disk

We measure the temperature of warm gas at planet-forming radii in the disk around the classical T Tauri star (CTTS) TW Hya by modelling the H2 fluorescence observed in HST/STIS and FUSE spectra. Strong Ly-alpha emission irradiates a warm disk surface within 2 AU of the central star and pumps certain excited levels of H2. We simulate a 1D plane-parallel atmosphere to estimate fluxes for the 140 observed H2 emission lines and to reconstruct the Ly-alpha emission profile incident upon the warm H2. The excitation of H2 can be determined from relative line strengths by measuring self-absorption in lines with low-energy lower levels, or by reconstructing the Ly-alpha profile incident upon the warm H2 using the total flux from a single upper level and the opacity in the pumping transition. Based on those diagnostics, we estimate that the warm disk surface has a column density of log N(H2)=18.5^{+1.2}_{-0.8}, a temperature T=2500^{+700}_{-500} K, and a filling factor of H2, as seen by the source of Ly-alpha emission, of 0.25\pm0.08 (all 2-sigma error bars). TW Hya produces approximately 10^{-3} L_\odot in the FUV, about 85% of which is in the Ly-alpha emission line. From the H I absorption observed in the Ly-alpha emission, we infer that dust extinction in our line of sight to TW Hya is negligible.Comment: Accepted by ApJ. 26 pages, 17 figures, 6 table