Too big to fail? Accounting for Predictions of Financial Distress in English Professional Football Clubs

Purpose – This paper analyses English Premier League (EPL) and English Football League (EFL) championship clubs during the period 2002–2019 to anticipate financial distress with specific reference to footballs’ Financial Fair Play (FFP) regulations. Design/methodology/approach – Data was collected for 43 professional football clubs competing in the EPL and Championship for the financial year ends 2002–2019. Analysis was conducted using the Z-score methodology and additional statistical tests were conducted to measure differences between groups. Data was split into two distinct periods to analyse club finances pre- and post-FFP. Findings – The results show significant cases of financial distress amongst clubs in both divisions and that Championship clubs are in significantly poorer financial health than EPL clubs. In some cases, financially sustainability has worsened post-FFP. The “big 6” clubs – due to their size – seem to be more financially sound than the rest of the EPL, thus preventing a “too big to fail” effect. Overall, the financial situation in English football remains poor, a position that could be exacerbated by the economic crisis, caused by COVID-19. Research limitations/implications – The findings are not generalisable outside of the English football industry and the data is susceptible to usual accounting techniques and treatments. Practical implications – The paper recommends a re-distribution of broadcasting rights, on a more equal basis and incentivised with cost-reduction targets. The implementation of a hard salary cap at league level is also recommended to control costs. Furthermore, FFP regulations should be re-visited to deliver the original objectives of bringing about financial sustainability in European football. Originality/value – The paper extends the evidence base of measuring financial distress in professional team sports and is also the first paper of its kind to examine this in relation to Championship club

Towards computational Morse-Floer homology: forcing results for connecting orbits by computing relative indices of critical points

To make progress towards better computability of Morse-Floer homology, and thus enhance the applicability of Floer theory, it is essential to have tools to determine the relative index of equilibria. Since even the existence of nontrivial stationary points is often difficult to accomplish, extracting their index information is usually out of reach. In this paper we establish a computer-assisted proof approach to determining relative indices of stationary states. We introduce the general framework and then focus on three example problems described by partial differential equations to show how these ideas work in practice. Based on a rigorous implementation, with accompanying code made available, we determine the relative indices of many stationary points. Moreover, we show how forcing results can be then used to prove theorems about connecting orbits and traveling waves in partial differential equations.Comment: 30 pages, 4 figures. Revised accepted versio

Physiological responses to maximal eating in men

This study investigated metabolic, endocrine, appetite and mood responses to a maximal eating occasion in fourteen men (mean: age 28 (sd 5) years, body mass 77·2 (sd 6·6) kg and BMI 24·2 (sd 2·2) kg/m2) who completed two trials in a randomised crossover design. On each occasion, participants ate a homogenous mixed-macronutrient meal (pizza). On one occasion, they ate until 'comfortably full' (ad libitum) and on the other, until they 'could not eat another bite' (maximal). Mean energy intake was double in the maximal (13 024 (95 % CI 10 964, 15 084) kJ; 3113 (95 % CI 2620, 3605) kcal) compared with the ad libitum trial (6627 (95 % CI 5708, 7547) kJ; 1584 (95 % CI 1364, 1804) kcal). Serum insulin incremental AUC (iAUC) increased approximately 1·5-fold in the maximal compared with ad libitum trial (mean: ad libitum 43·8 (95 % CI 28·3, 59·3) nmol/l × 240 min and maximal 67·7 (95 % CI 47·0, 88·5) nmol/l × 240 min, P &lt; 0·01), but glucose iAUC did not differ between trials (ad libitum 94·3 (95 % CI 30·3, 158·2) mmol/l × 240 min and maximal 126·5 (95 % CI 76·9, 176·0) mmol/l × 240 min, P = 0·19). TAG iAUC was approximately 1·5-fold greater in the maximal v. ad libitum trial (ad libitum 98·6 (95 % CI 69·9, 127·2) mmol/l × 240 min and maximal 146·4 (95 % CI 88·6, 204·1) mmol/l × 240 min, P &lt; 0·01). Total glucagon-like peptide-1, glucose-dependent insulinotropic peptide and peptide tyrosine-tyrosine iAUC were greater in the maximal compared with ad libitum trial (P &lt; 0·05). Total ghrelin concentrations decreased to a similar extent, but AUC was slightly lower in the maximal v. ad libitum trial (P = 0·02). There were marked differences on appetite and mood between trials, most notably maximal eating caused a prolonged increase in lethargy. Healthy men have the capacity to eat twice the energy content required to achieve comfortable fullness at a single meal. Postprandial glycaemia is well regulated following initial overeating, with elevated postprandial insulinaemia probably contributing.</p

The effect of duration of antimicrobial treatment for bacteremia in critically ill patients on in-hospital mortality - Retrospective double center analysis.

PURPOSE Excessive duration of antibiotic treatment is a major factor for inappropriate antibiotic consumption. Although in some instances shorter antibiotic courses are as efficient as longer ones, no specific recommendations as to the duration of antimicrobial treatment for bloodstream infections currently exist. In the present study, we investigated the effect of antibiotic treatment duration on in-hospital mortality using retrospective data from two cohorts that included patients with bacteremia at two Swiss tertiary Intensive Care Units (ICUs). MATERIALS AND METHODS Overall 8227 consecutive patients requiring ICU admission were screened for bacteremia between 01/2012-12/2013 in Lausanne and between 07/2016-05/2017 in Bern. Patients with an infection known to require prolonged treatment or having single positive blood culture with common contaminant pathogens were excluded. The primary outcome of interest was the time from start of antimicrobial treatment to in-hospital death or hospital discharge, whichever comes first. The predictor of interest was adequate antimicrobial treatment duration, further divided into shorter (≤10 days) and longer (>10 days) durations. A time-dependent Cox model and a cloning approach were used to address immortality bias. The secondary outcomes were the median duration of antimicrobial treatment for patients with bacteremia overall and stratified by underlying infectious syndrome and pathogens in the case of secondary bacteremia. RESULTS Out of the 707 patients with positive blood cultures, 382 were included into the primary analysis. Median duration of antibiotic therapy was 14 days (IQR, 7-20). Most bacteremia (84%) were monomicrobial; 18% of all episodes were primary bacteremia. Respiratory (28%), intra-abdominal (23%) and catheter infections (17%) were the most common sources of secondary bacteremia. Using methods to mitigate the risk of confounding associated with antibiotic treatment durations, shorter versus longer treatment groups showed no differences in in-hospital survival (time-dependent Cox-model: HR 1.5, 95% CI (0.8, 2.7), p = 0.20; Cloning approach: HR 1.0, 95% CI (0.7,1.5) p = 0.83). Sensitivity analyses showed that the interpretation did not change when using a 7 days cut-off. CONCLUSIONS In this restrospective study, we found no evidence for a survival benefit of longer (>10 days) versus shorter treatment course in ICU patients with bacteremia. TRIAL REGISTRATION The study was retrospectively registered on clinicatrials.gov (NCT05236283), 11 February 2022. The respective cantonal ethics commission (KEK Bern # 2021-02302) has approved the study

Betriebliche Bewirtschaftungsindikatoren für Biodiversität im Ökologischen Landbau und in extensiven Anbausystemen in Europa

Farming practices are the key to maintaining and restoring farmland biodiversity. Selected farm management indicators, regarded as scientifically sound, practicable and attractive to stakeholders, were tested against species indicators in various farm types in 12 case studies across Europe. A set of eight farm management indicators is recommended, reflecting the pressure on biodiversity by farm management via energy and nutrient input, mechanical operations, pesticide use and livestock

Indicateurs de biodiversité dans les exploitations agricoles biologiques et conventionnelles des Vallées et Coteaux de Gascogne, cas d’étude français du projet européen BIOBIO

Dans le cadre du projet européen BIOBIO, nous avons comparé entre pays les richesses en habitats et richesses spécifiques cumulées de quatre groupes taxonomiques (plantes, abeilles sauvages, araignées, vers de terre), de 169 exploitations biologiques ou conventionnelles appartenant à 10 pays. Pour le cas d’étude français, Vallées et Coteaux de Gascogne, les corrélations entre indicateurs directs (richesses spécifiques des taxons et habitats) et indirects (pratiques agricoles) de biodiversité, relevés dans 8 exploitations conventionnelles et 8 biologiques, ont été recherchées. Les résultats montrent que le nombre d’habitats cultivés et surtout semi-naturels par exploitation est le principal facteur déterminant le niveau de biodiversité à cette échelle, pour le cas d’étude français comme pour les autres cas d’étude. Ce facteur explique en partie le plus haut niveau de biodiversité observé pour le cas d’étude français. Néanmoins, les pratiques, spécifiques ou non des modes de production biologique et conventionnelle, gouvernent généralement les paramètres de biodiversité à l’échelle de l’habitat. In fine, le projet propose la méthode BIOBIO de suivi de la biodiversité dans les exploitations agricoles

Artenvielfalt auf biologischen und nicht-biologischen Landwirtschaftsbetrieben in zehn europäischen Regionen

One of the aims of organic farming is the protection of biodiversity. In the EU FP7 project BioBio, we studied the effect of organic farming on species numbers at farm level on 169 randomly selected organic and non-organic farms with mostly low to medium intensity in ten European regions. Using a preferential sampling scheme based on habitat mapping, numbers of plants, earthworms, spiders and bees were assessed at farm level. A global analysis across the ten regions shows that organic farms have significantly higher numbers of plant and bee species than non-organic farms. The effect of organic farming on earthworm and spider species numbers are also positive but insignificant. The effects in absolute terms are small and much smaller than the variation between individual farms. Currently ongoing analyses aim at identifying the important driving factors for farmland biodiversity

The LOFAR Transients Pipeline

Current and future astronomical survey facilities provide a remarkably rich opportunity for transient astronomy, combining unprecedented fields of view with high sensitivity and the ability to access previously unexplored wavelength regimes. This is particularly true of LOFAR, a recently-commissioned, low-frequency radio interferometer, based in the Netherlands and with stations across Europe. The identification of and response to transients is one of LOFAR's key science goals. However, the large data volumes which LOFAR produces, combined with the scientific requirement for rapid response, make automation essential. To support this, we have developed the LOFAR Transients Pipeline, or TraP. The TraP ingests multi-frequency image data from LOFAR or other instruments and searches it for transients and variables, providing automatic alerts of significant detections and populating a lightcurve database for further analysis by astronomers. Here, we discuss the scientific goals of the TraP and how it has been designed to meet them. We describe its implementation, including both the algorithms adopted to maximize performance as well as the development methodology used to ensure it is robust and reliable, particularly in the presence of artefacts typical of radio astronomy imaging. Finally, we report on a series of tests of the pipeline carried out using simulated LOFAR observations with a known population of transients.Comment: 30 pages, 11 figures; Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Computing; Code at https://github.com/transientskp/tk