Climate-Based Models for Understanding and Forecasting Dengue Epidemics

Dengue fever is a major public health problem in the tropics and subtropics. Since no vaccine exists, understanding and predicting outbreaks remain of crucial interest. Climate influences the mosquito-vector biology and the viral transmission cycle. Its impact on dengue dynamics is of growing interest. We analyzed the epidemiology of dengue in Noumea (New Caledonia) from 1971 to 2010 and its relationships with local and remote climate conditions using an original approach combining a comparison of epidemic and non epidemic years, bivariate and multivariate analyses. We found that the occurrence of outbreaks in Noumea was strongly influenced by climate during the last forty years. Efficient models were developed to estimate the yearly risk of outbreak as a function of two meteorological variables that were contemporaneous (explicative model) or prior (predictive model) to the outbreak onset. Local threshold values of maximal temperature and relative humidity were identified. Our results provide new insights to understand the link between climate and dengue outbreaks, and have a substantial impact on dengue management in New Caledonia since the health authorities have integrated these models into their decision making process and vector control policies. This raises the possibility to provide similar early warning systems in other countries

Matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization--time of flight mass spectrometry: an emerging tool for the rapid identification of mosquito vectors.

BACKGROUND: The identification of mosquito vectors is typically based on morphological characteristics using morphological keys of determination, which requires entomological expertise and training. The use of protein profiling by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF-MS), which is increasingly being used for the routine identification of bacteria, has recently emerged for arthropod identification. METHODS: To investigate the usefulness of MALDI-TOF-MS as a mosquito identification tool, we tested protein extracts made from mosquito legs to create a database of reference spectra. The database included a total of 129 laboratory-reared and field-caught mosquito specimens consisting of 20 species, including 4 Aedes spp., 9 Anopheles spp., 4 Culex spp., Lutzia tigripes, Orthopodomyia reunionensis and Mansonia uniformis. For the validation study, blind tests were performed with 76 specimens consisting of 1 to 4 individuals per species. A cluster analysis was carried out using the MALDI-Biotyper and some spectra from all mosquito species tested. RESULTS: Biomarker mass sets containing 22 and 43 masses have been detected from 100 specimens of the Anopheles, Aedes and Culex species. By carrying out 3 blind tests, we achieved the identification of mosquito vectors at the species level, including the differentiation of An. gambiae complex, which is possible using MALDI-TOF-MS with 1.8 as the cut-off identification score. A cluster analysis performed with all available mosquito species showed that MALDI-Biotyper can distinguish between specimens at the subspecies level, as demonstrated for An gambiae M and S, but this method cannot yet be considered a reliable tool for the phylogenetic study of mosquito species. CONCLUSIONS: We confirmed that even without any specific expertise, MALDI-TOF-MS profiling of mosquito leg protein extracts can be used for the rapid identification of mosquito vectors. Therefore, MALDI-TOF-MS is an alternative, efficient and inexpensive tool that can accurately identify mosquitoes collected in the field during entomological surveys

Generation of provably correct high-order meshes

peer reviewe

Geometrical accuracy and numerical properties of high-order meshes

International audienc

Optimizing the Geometrical Accuracy of 2D Curvilinear Meshes

This paper presents a method to generate valid 2D high order meshes with optimized geometrical accuracy. The high order meshing procedure starts with a straight sided mesh. High order points are initially snapped to the real geometry without taking care of the validity of the high order elements. An optimization procedure that both allow to untangle invalid elements and to optimize the geometrical accuracy of the mesh is presented. An area based distance is proposed to compute the geometrical discrepancy between the mesh and its underlying geometry. This area based distance is shown to be strongly related to standard distance measures such as the Hausdorff distance, while being largely faster to compute. The new distance is minimized through an unconstrained optimization procedure, allowing significant improvements of the geometrical accuracy of high order meshes. A simple computational example shows that geometrically optimized meshes allow smooth CFD solutions

The generation of valid curvilinear meshes

It is now well-known that a curvilinear discretization of the geometry is most often required to benefit from the computational efficiency of high-order numerical schemes in simulations. In this article, we explain how appropriate curvilinear meshes can be generated. We pay particular attention to the problem of invalid (tangled) mesh parts created by curving the domain boundaries. An efficient technique that computes provable bounds on the element Jacobian determinant is used to characterize the mesh validity, and we describe fast and robust techniques to regularize the mesh. The methods presented in this article are thoroughly discussed in Ref. [1, 2], and implemented in the free mesh generation software Gmsh [4, 12]