Urban air quality estimation study, phase 1

Possibilities are explored for applying estimation theory to the analysis, interpretation, and use of air quality measurements in conjunction with simulation models to provide a cost effective method of obtaining reliable air quality estimates for wide urban areas. The physical phenomenology of real atmospheric plumes from elevated localized sources is discussed. A fluctuating plume dispersion model is derived. Individual plume parameter formulations are developed along with associated a priori information. Individual measurement models are developed

Real-time information processing of environmental sensor network data using Bayesian Gaussian processes

In this article, we consider the problem faced by a sensor network operator who must infer, in real time, the value of some environmental parameter that is being monitored at discrete points in space and time by a sensor network. We describe a powerful and generic approach built upon an efficient multi-output Gaussian process that facilitates this information acquisition and processing. Our algorithm allows effective inference even with minimal domain knowledge, and we further introduce a formulation of Bayesian Monte Carlo to permit the principled management of the hyperparameters introduced by our flexible models. We demonstrate how our methods can be applied in cases where the data is delayed, intermittently missing, censored, and/or correlated. We validate our approach using data collected from three networks of weather sensors and show that it yields better inference performance than both conventional independent Gaussian processes and the Kalman filter. Finally, we show that our formalism efficiently reuses previous computations by following an online update procedure as new data sequentially arrives, and that this results in a four-fold increase in computational speed in the largest cases considered

Population Dynamics in the Penna Model

We build upon the recent steady-state Penna model solution, Phys.Rev.Lett. 89, 288103 (2002), to study the population dynamics within the Penna model. We show, that any perturbation to the population can be broken into a collection of modes each of which decay exponentially with its respective time constant. The long time behaviour of population is therefore likely to be dominated by the modes with the largest time constants. We confirm our analytical approach with simulation data.Comment: 6 figure

Time-Symmetric Quantum Theory of Smoothing

Smoothing is an estimation technique that takes into account both past and future observations, and can be more accurate than filtering alone. In this Letter, a quantum theory of smoothing is constructed using a time-symmetric formalism, thereby generalizing prior work on classical and quantum filtering, retrodiction, and smoothing. The proposed theory solves the important problem of optimally estimating classical Markov processes coupled to a quantum system under continuous measurements, and is thus expected to find major applications in future quantum sensing systems, such as gravitational wave detectors and atomic magnetometers.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure, v2: accepted by PR

Optimal waveform estimation for classical and quantum systems via time-symmetric smoothing

Classical and quantum theories of time-symmetric smoothing, which can be used to optimally estimate waveforms in classical and quantum systems, are derived using a discrete-time approach, and the similarities between the two theories are emphasized. Application of the quantum theory to homodyne phase-locked loop design for phase estimation with narrowband squeezed optical beams is studied. The relation between the proposed theory and Aharonov et al.'s weak value theory is also explored.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, v2: changed the title to a more descriptive one, corrected a minor mistake in Sec. IV, accepted by Physical Review

Variational assimilation of Lagrangian data in oceanography

We consider the assimilation of Lagrangian data into a primitive equations circulation model of the ocean at basin scale. The Lagrangian data are positions of floats drifting at fixed depth. We aim at reconstructing the four-dimensional space-time circulation of the ocean. This problem is solved using the four-dimensional variational technique and the adjoint method. In this problem the control vector is chosen as being the initial state of the dynamical system. The observed variables, namely the positions of the floats, are expressed as a function of the control vector via a nonlinear observation operator. This method has been implemented and has the ability to reconstruct the main patterns of the oceanic circulation. Moreover it is very robust with respect to increase of time-sampling period of observations. We have run many twin experiments in order to analyze the sensitivity of our method to the number of floats, the time-sampling period and the vertical drift level. We compare also the performances of the Lagrangian method to that of the classical Eulerian one. Finally we study the impact of errors on observations.Comment: 31 page

Correlation regimes in fluctuations of fatigue crack growth

This paper investigates correlation properties of fluctuations in fatigue crack growth of polycrystalline materials, such as ductile alloys, that are commonly encountered in structures and machinery components of complex electromechanical systems. The model of crack damage measure indicates that the fluctuations of fatigue crack growth are characterized by strong correlation patterns within short time scales and are uncorrelated for larger time scales. The two correlation regimes suggest that the 7075-T6 aluminum alloy, analyzed in this paper, is characterized by a micro-structure which is responsible for an intermittent correlated dynamics of fatigue crack growth within a certain scale. The constitutive equations of the damage measure are built upon the physics of fracture mechanics and are substantiated by Karhunen-Lo\`{e}ve decomposition of fatigue test data. Statistical orthogonality of the estimated damage measure and the resulting estimation error is demonstrated in a Hilbert space setting.Comment: 30 pages, 8 figures, to appear in Physica

A random map implementation of implicit filters

Implicit particle filters for data assimilation generate high-probability samples by representing each particle location as a separate function of a common reference variable. This representation requires that a certain underdetermined equation be solved for each particle and at each time an observation becomes available. We present a new implementation of implicit filters in which we find the solution of the equation via a random map. As examples, we assimilate data for a stochastically driven Lorenz system with sparse observations and for a stochastic Kuramoto-Sivashinski equation with observations that are sparse in both space and time

BLUE, BLUP and the Kalman filter: some new results

In this contribution, we extend ‘Kalman-filter’ theory by introducing a new BLUE–BLUP recursion of the partitioned measurement and dynamic models. Instead of working with known state-vector means, we relax the model and assume these means to be unknown. The recursive BLUP is derived from first principles, in which a prominent role is played by the model’s misclosures. As a consequence of the mean state-vector relaxing assumption, the recursion does away with the usual need of having to specify the initial state-vector variance matrix. Next to the recursive BLUP, we introduce, for the same model, the recursive BLUE. This extension is another consequence of assuming the state-vector means unknown. In the standard Kalman filter set-up with known state-vector means, such difference between estimation and prediction does not occur. It is shown how the two intertwined recursions can be combined into one general BLUE–BLUP recursion, the outputs of which produce for every epoch, in parallel, the BLUP for the random state-vector and the BLUE for the mean of the state-vector