The benefits of increasing resolution in global and regional climate simulations for European climate extremes

Many climate extremes, including heatwaves and heavy precipitation events, are projected to worsen under climate change, with important impacts for society. Future projections required for adaptation are often based on climate model simulations. Given finite resources, trade-offs must be made concerning model resolution, ensemble size, and level of model complexity. Here we focus on the resolution component. A given resolution can be achieved over a region using either global climate models (GCMs) or at lower cost using regional climate models (RCMs) that dynamically downscale coarser GCMs. Both approaches to increasing resolution may better capture small-scale processes and features (downscaling effect), but increased GCM resolution may also improve the representation of the large-scale atmospheric circulation (upscaling effect). The size of this upscaling effect is therefore important for deciding modelling strategies. Here we evaluate the benefits of increased model resolution for both global and regional climate models for simulating temperature, precipitation, and wind extremes over Europe at resolutions that could currently be realistically used for coordinated sets of climate projections at the pan-European scale. First we examine the benefits of regional downscaling by comparing EURO-CORDEX simulations at 12.5 and 50 km resolution to their coarser CMIP5 driving simulations. Secondly, we compare global-scale HadGEM3-A simulations at three resolutions (130, 60, and 25 km). Finally, we separate out resolution-dependent differences for HadGEM3-A into downscaling and upscaling components using a circulation analogue technique. Results suggest limited benefits of increased resolution for heatwaves, except in reducing hot biases over mountainous regions. Precipitation extremes are sensitive to resolution, particularly over complex orography, with larger totals and heavier tails of the distribution at higher resolution, particularly in the CORDEX vs. CMIP5 analysis. CMIP5 models underestimate precipitation extremes, whilst CORDEX simulations overestimate compared to E-OBS, particularly at 12.5 km, but results are sensitive to the observational dataset used, with the MESAN reanalysis giving higher totals and heavier tails than E-OBS. Wind extremes are somewhat stronger and heavier tailed at higher resolution, except in coastal regions where large coastal grid boxes spread strong ocean winds further over land. The circulation analogue analysis suggests that differences with resolution for the HadGEM3-A GCM are primarily due to downscaling effects

C-STICH2: emergency cervical cerclage to prevent miscarriage and preterm birth—study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Abstract Background Cervical cerclage is a recognised treatment to prevent late miscarriage and pre-term birth (PTB). Emergency cervical cerclage (ECC) for cervical dilatation with exposed unruptured membranes is less common and the potential benefits of cerclage are less certain. A randomised control trial is needed to accurately assess the effectiveness of ECC in preventing pregnancy loss compared to an expectant approach. Methods C-STICH2 is a multicentre randomised controlled trial in which women presenting with cervical dilatation and unruptured exposed membranes at 16 + 0 to 27 + 6 weeks gestation are randomised to ECC or expectant management. Trial design includes 18 month internal pilot with embedded qualitative process evaluation, minimal data set and a within-trial health economic analysis. Inclusion criteria are ≥16 years, singleton pregnancy, exposed membranes at the external os, gestation 16 + 0–27 + 6 weeks, and informed consent. Exclusion criteria are contraindication to cerclage, cerclage in situ or previous cerclage in this pregnancy. Randomisation occurs via an online service in a 1:1 ratio, using a minimisation algorithm to reduce chance imbalances in key prognostic variables (site, gestation and dilatation). Primary outcome is pregnancy loss; a composite including miscarriage, termination of pregnancy and perinatal mortality defined as stillbirth and neonatal death in the first week of life. Secondary outcomes include all core outcomes for PTB. Two-year development outcomes will be assessed using general health and Parent Report of Children’s Abilities-Revised (PARCA-R) questionnaires. Intended sample size is 260 participants (130 each arm) based on 60% rate of pregnancy loss in the expectant management arm and 40% in the ECC arm, with 90% power and alpha 0.05. Analysis will be by intention-to-treat. Discussion To date there has been one small trial of ECC in 23 participants which included twin and singleton pregnancies. This small trial along with the largest observational study (n = 161) found ECC to prolong pregnancy duration and reduce deliveries before 34 weeks gestation. It is important to generate high quality evidence on the effectiveness of ECC in preventing pregnancy loss, and improve understanding of the prevalence of the condition and frequency of complications associated with ECC. An adequately powered RCT will provide the highest quality evidence regarding optimum care for these women and their babies. Trial registration ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN12981869 . Registered on 13th June 2018

New horizons in the role of digital data in the healthcare of older people

There are national and global moves to improve effective digital data design and application in healthcare. This New Horizons commentary describes the role of digital data in healthcare of the ageing population. We outline how health and social care professionals can engage in the proactive design of digital systems that appropriately serve people as they age, carers and the workforce that supports them.// Key Points: //Healthcare improvements have resulted in increased population longevity and hence multimorbidity.// //Shared care records to improve communication and information continuity across care settings hold potential for older people.// Data structure and coding are key considerations.// A workforce with expertise in caring for older people with relevant knowledge and skills in digital healthcare is important./

Staff training to improve participant recruitment into surgical randomised controlled trials : A feasibility study within a trial (SWAT) across four host trials simultaneously

The PROMoting THE Use of SWATs (PROMETHEUS) programme was funded by the Medical Research Council (MRC) [grant number MR/R013748/1]. The DISC host trial is funded by the Health Technology Assessment Programme (Grant Ref: 15/102/04). IntAct is funded by the Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation (EME) Programme, an MRC and NIHR partnership (Grant Ref: 14/150/62). The EME Programme is funded by the MRC and NIHR, with contributions from the CSO in Scotland and Health and Care Research Wales and the HSC R&D Division, Public Health Agency in Northern Ireland. PROFHER-2 is funded by the Health Technology Assessment Programme (Grant Ref: 16/73/03). START: REACTS is funded by the NIHR Evaluation, Trials and Studies Co-ordinating Centre (NETSCC); Grant Codes: 16/61/18. The development of the training intervention was funded by the MRC Network of Hubs for Trials Methodology Research (MR/L004933/1- R53) and supported by the MRC ConDuCT-II Hub (Collaboration and innovation for Difficult and Complex randomized controlled Trials In Invasive procedures - MR/K025643/1). The online version of the training intervention was funded by the NIHR and is hosted on the NIHR Learn platform (https://learn.nihr.ac.uk/course/view.php?id=385). It is based on the face-to face GRANULE training course funded by the Bowel Disease Research Foundation in collaboration with the University of Birmingham, University of Bristol and former MRC ConDuCT-II Hub. This work was part-funded by the Wellcome Trust [ref: 204829] through the Centre for Future Health (CFH) at the University of York. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, the MRC or the Department of Health and Social Care. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the article.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

Intragenic deletion in the LARGE gene causes Walker-Warburg syndrome

Intragenic homozygous deletions in the Large gene are associated with a severe neuromuscular phenotype in the myodystrophy (myd) mouse. These mutations result in a virtual lack of glycosylation of α-dystroglycan. Compound heterozygous LARGE mutations have been reported in a single human patient, manifesting with mild congenital muscular dystrophy (CMD) and severe mental retardation. These mutations are likely to retain some residual LARGE glycosyltransferase activity as indicated by residual α-dystroglycan glycosylation in patient cells. We hypothesized that more severe LARGE mutations are associated with a more severe CMD phenotype in humans. Here we report a 63-kb intragenic LARGE deletion in a family with Walker-Warburg syndrome (WWS), which is characterized by CMD, and severe structural brain and eye malformations. This finding demonstrates that LARGE gene mutations can give rise to a wide clinical spectrum, similar as for other genes that have a role in the post-translational modification of the α-dystroglycan protein

Bordetella pertussis Autotransporter Vag8 Binds Human C1 Esterase Inhibitor and Confers Serum Resistance

Bordetella pertussis employs numerous strategies to evade the immune system, including the ability to resist killing via complement. Previously we have shown that B. pertussis binds a complement regulatory protein, C1 esterase inhibitor (C1inh) to its surface in a Bvg-regulated manner (i.e. during its virulence phase), but the B. pertussis factor was not identified. Here we set out to identify the B. pertussis C1inh-binding factor. Using a serum overlay assay, we found that this factor migrates at approximately 100 kDa on an SDS-PAGE gel. To identify this factor, we isolated proteins of approximately 100 kDa from wild type strain BP338 and from BP347, an isogenic Bvg mutant that does not bind C1inh. Using mass spectrometry and bioinformatics, we identified the autotransporter protein Vag8 as the putative C1inh binding protein. To prove that Vag8 binds C1inh, vag8 was disrupted in two different B. pertussis strains, namely BP338 and 18–323, and the mutants were tested for their ability to bind C1inh in a surface-binding assay. Neither mutant strain was capable of binding C1inh, whereas a complemented strain successfully bound C1inh. In addition, the passenger domain of Vag8 was expressed and purified as a histidine-tagged fusion protein and tested for C1inh-binding in an ELISA assay. Whereas the purified Vag8 passenger bound C1inh, the passenger domain of BrkA (a related autotransporter protein) failed to do so. Finally, serum assays were conducted to compare wild type and vag8 mutants. We determined that vag8 mutants from both strains were more susceptible to killing compared to their isogenic wild type counterparts. In conclusion, we have discovered a novel role for the previously uncharacterized protein Vag8 in the immune evasion of B. pertussis. Vag8 binds C1inh to the surface of the bacterium and confers serum resistance

Glacial Refugia in Pathogens: European Genetic Structure of Anther Smut Pathogens on Silene latifolia and Silene dioica

Climate warming is predicted to increase the frequency of invasions by pathogens and to cause the large-scale redistribution of native host species, with dramatic consequences on the health of domesticated and wild populations of plants and animals. The study of historic range shifts in response to climate change, such as during interglacial cycles, can help in the prediction of the routes and dynamics of infectious diseases during the impending ecosystem changes. Here we studied the population structure in Europe of two Microbotryum species causing anther smut disease on the plants Silene latifolia and Silene dioica. Clustering analyses revealed the existence of genetically distinct groups for the pathogen on S. latifolia, providing a clear-cut example of European phylogeography reflecting recolonization from southern refugia after glaciation. The pathogen genetic structure was congruent with the genetic structure of its host species S. latifolia, suggesting dependence of the migration pathway of the anther smut fungus on its host. The fungus, however, appeared to have persisted in more numerous and smaller refugia than its host and to have experienced fewer events of large-scale dispersal. The anther smut pathogen on S. dioica also showed a strong phylogeographic structure that might be related to more northern glacial refugia. Differences in host ecology probably played a role in these differences in the pathogen population structure. Very high selfing rates were inferred in both fungal species, explaining the low levels of admixture between the genetic clusters. The systems studied here indicate that migration patterns caused by climate change can be expected to include pathogen invasions that follow the redistribution of their host species at continental scales, but also that the recolonization by pathogens is not simply a mirror of their hosts, even for obligate biotrophs, and that the ecology of hosts and pathogen mating systems likely affects recolonization patterns