Considerations of long term enterprise selection for the water scarce Little Karoo area

Thesis (MScAgric)--Stellenbosch University, 2022.ENGLISH SUMMARY : With the current drought and predicted drier future climate conditions for the Little Karoo, it is imperative to find crops that have a high water use efficiency while providing sufficient income. Understanding the future climate and its influences on agriculture production in the Little Karoo area is an important factor to consider when discussing alternative water use efficient crops. According to models, historical and current data on climate change and excessive greenhouse gasses it is predicted that rainfall in the Little Karoo will decrease in the coming decades. This decrease in rainfall is paired with an increase in extreme weather patterns leading to more frequent droughts with higher intensity and longer duration. The different crop industries and morphologies was analysed to determine their responses to a more arid and hotter growing environment. The crops used in the study is best suited for a Mediterranean climate, dry summers and mild/wet winters, as these types of crops will be best suitable for the Little Karoo. The crops used are apricots, almonds, peaches, olives, plums and wine grapes. The morphological aspects concluded that apricots and peaches can handle water deficits for a prolonged period the best, only requiring two thirds of full irrigation water and still delivering an almost full crop load. Whereas olives can cope the best with excessive heat. To determine the best suitable crop in terms of income generation to water use ratio, enterprise budgets were set up to determine the net income generated and paired with the individual water usage of each. Enterprise budget was used to determine the net profit, income minus cost (direct and indirect), of each crop used. The different crops have aspects that either promote or hinder the suitability. These aspects include labour requirement, season length, export or local usage, fresh or processed, density planted and mechanised or not. Income was determined by the Rand per kilogram of fruit. Processed fruits received a great deal less per kilogram than that of fresh and export fruits. Almonds was the most profitable crop with that of wine grapes the least profitable. However, almonds needed the most water to produce a suitable crop load with olives requiring the least amount of irrigation. Therefore, different aspects needed to be taken into consideration when choosing the ideal crop. However not one single crop could fulfil all the aspects need to produce without any hindrance. Thus, diversification was the solution to mitigate or reduce any shortcomings of crops. Therefore this study was conducted to have a better understanding of the existing and pending problem of droughts and how certain crop combinations can be used to successfully produce in the future.AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : Met die droogte wat tans heers en voorspelde droër toekomstige klimaat toestande vir die Klein Karoo, is dit noodsaaklik om gewasse te vind met hoë water doeltreffendheid wat ook genoegsaam winsgewend is. Die begrip van die toekomstige klimaatsomstandighede en die gepaardgaande effek op landbouproduksie in die Klein Karoo is ʼn belangrike oorweging met die oorweging van alternatiewe gewasse. Bestaande modellevoorspel, op grand van historiese en hedendaagse klimaatsverandering en kweekhuisgas, dat reënval in die Klein Karoo na verwagting sal afneem oor die volgende dekades. Die afname in reënval gaan gepaard met ʼn verwagte toename in ekstreme klimaat insidente wat aanleiding kan gee tot meer langdurige en meer intense droogtes. Die verskillende gewasse en gepaardgaande morfologie was geanaliseer om verwagte reaksie te toets op warmer en droëer omstandighede. Die gewasse wat in die studie ingesluit is, is die beste aangepas my Mediterreense klimaat met droë somers en koel, natter winters, wat beter aangepas is vir die Klein Karoo. Gewasse ingesluit is: appelkose, amandels, perskes, olywe, pruime en wyndruiwe. Die morfologiese aspek wys dat appelkose en perskes water en vog beperkinge oor langer periodes die beste kan hanteer, teen twee derdes van die normale water voorsiening kan bykans vol-oes steeds afgehaal word. Olywe kan ekstreme hitte die beste hanteer. Ten einde die beste gewas te identifiseer in terme van inkomste potensiaal teenoor water behoefte is vertakkingsbegrotings opgestel om die winsgewendheid te paar met water behoefte. Vertakkingsbegrotings is gebruik om inkomste, toedeelbare koste en marges te bereken. Die gewasse het unieke eienskappe wat volhoubare produksie bevorder of beperk. Die eienskappe sluit in: arbeidsbehoefte, duur van die groeiseisoen, uitvoer doelwitte, vars teenoor inmaak of droog, plantdigtheid, en meganisasie opsies. Inkomste is bepaal in R/kg vrugte. Geprosesseerde vrugte se realiseerde prys was betekenisvol laer as die van uitvoer produkte. Amandels wys die hoogste winsgewendheid terwyl olywe en wyndruiwe die mins winsgewende gewasse is. Nietemin is amandels se water behoefte die hoogste en olywe we waterbehoeftes die laagste. Dit wys dat verskeie faktore in ag geneem behoort te word met vestigings besluite. Geen gewas kon identifiseer word wat in alle oorwegings die beste vaar nie. Diversifikasie bleik ʼn moontlike sterk oorweging te wees om tekorte van gewasse te verlig. Die studie bied ʼn beter begrip van die huidige en verwagte toekomste effek van droogte toestande en hoe gewas kombinasies wel oorweeg kan word in die toekoms.Master

UNTERSUCHUNG DES SYSTEMS ENDGULTIGER UND INSTRUMENTALER WERTE BEI ADOLESZENTEN

The aim of this study was to examine the structure of adolescents\u27 terminal and instrumental values by using modified Rokeach Value Survey. The investigation was carried out with a sample of 311 fourteen-year-old adolescents. The subjects rated the importance of each value on a seven point scale, and they also chose the first five most important values. Both techniques provided similar results in terms of ordering the relative importance of value choi ces. The ratings of 18 terminal and 18 instrumental values were subjected to factor analyses. Instrumental values reflecting morality/ self-restriction, competence, independence and benevolence were identified. Terminal values were comprised of hedonism/gratification, social/security and self-actualization value factors. Based on the factor solutions, terminal and instrumental values subscales were constructed and their correlations with measures of intelligence, school achievement and prosocial behaviour were examined. The findings suggest that value types differ in the extent to which they endorse interpersonal or other-directed focus in comparison to self-directed or achievement-oriented focus.Uradu se opisuju rezultati ispitivanja sustava vrednota adolescenata uporabom modificirane Rokeacheve ljestvice terminalnih i instrumentalnih vrednota. U ispitivanju je sudjelovalo 311 adolescenata prosječne dobi 14 godina. Uz procjenu važnosti svake vrednote na skali od sedam stupnjeva, ispitanici su birali i pet najvažnijih vrednota. Hijerarhijski sustav instrumentalnih i terminalnih vrednota, utvrđen postupkom rangiranja i procjenjivanja, nije se znatno razlikovao. Na temelju rezultata faktorske analize procjena važnosti pojedinih vrednota konstruirane su podljestvice za mjerenje različitih tipova terminalnih (\u27hedonizam\u27, \u27samoaktualizacija\u27 i \u27socijalne vrednote\u27) i instrumentalnih vrednota (\u27moralnost/ samokontrola\u27, \u27sposobnost\u27, \u27nezavisnost\u27 i \u27dobrohotnost linterpersonalni sklad\u27). Utvrđene su korelacije između pojedinih tipova vrednota te između ljestvica za mjerenje vrednota, inteligencije, školskog uspjeha i prosocijalnog ponašanja. Rezultati ukazuju na to da određeni tipovi vrednota u najširem smislu odražavaju afilijativnost i usmjerenost na druge, a za ostale je vrednote karakteristična usmjerenost na sebe i vlastiti razvoj.Yorliegende Studie bringt die Ergebnisse einer Untersuchung, die anhand der Rokeache-Skala endgOItiger (terminaler) und instrumentaler Werte das Wertesystem von Adoleszenten ermitteln sollte. An der Umfrage nahmen insgesamt 311 Jugendliche im Durchschnittsalter von 14 Jahren teil. Die Befragten mutšten mittels einer 7-stufigen Skala die einzelnen Werte einstufen und aufšerdern eine Rangliste der fOnf fur sie wichtigsten Werte aufstellen. Die hierarchische Anordnung der instrumentalen und endgOltigen Werte, die so durch Rangieren und Einschatzunq ermittelt wurde, zeigte in den einzelnen Fallen nur geringfOgige Abweichungen. Aufgrund einer Faktorenanalyse zur Einschatzung der einzelnen Werte wurden Unterskalen konstruiert, um verschiedene Typen endgOItiger Werte (\u27Hedonismus\u27, \u27Selbstverwirklichung\u27 und \u27soziale Werte\u27) sowie instrumentaler Werte (\u27Moralitat/SelbstkontrolIe\u27, \u27Fahiqkert\u27, \u27Unabhangigkeit\u27 und \u27Gutwilligkeit/zwischenmenschliche Harmonie\u27) zu messen. Man stellte fest, dar.. Korrelationen bestehen zwischen den einzelnen Wertetypen sowie zwischen den bestehenden Skalen zur Messung von Werten, Intelligenz, Schulerfolg und prosozialem Verhalten. Die ermittelten Resultate besagen, dafš bestimmte Wertetypen im weitesten Wortsinn miteinander affiliiert und aufeinander ausgerichtet sind, wanrend fur andere Werte die Ausrichtung auf sich selbst und die eigene Entwicklung charakteristisch sind

Individualizacija kažnjavanja u fazi izvršavanja kazne zatvora

Autor u članku opisuje pojedina istraživanja uspješnosti tretmanskih programa u smanjenju kriminalnog povrata zatvorenika koja su pokazala da postoji znatan postotak zatvorenika kojima je potrebno uključivanje u više različitih programa. Povećanje učinkovitosti tretmanskih i rehabilitacijskih programa u smislu smanjenja kriminalnog recidivizma postiže se i uključivanjem članova obitelji, prijatelja, kolega s posla, susjeda, poslodavaca, vjerskih organizacija i sl. Jedan od ograničavajućih čimbenika za provođenje tretmanskih programa je zatvorenost dijela kaznionica i zatvora zbog sigurnosnih razloga, a tome valja svakako pridružiti i često veliku geografsku udaljenost kaznionice u kojoj se provodi program od mjesta prebivanja zatvorenika. Sukladno odredbama Zakona o izvršavanju kazne zatvora, u Odjel za dijagnostiku i programiranje interdisciplinarno se stručno i timski opserviraju i dijagnosticiraju zatvorenici s psihološkog, socijalnog, zdravstvenog, kriminalnopravnog i razvojnog aspekta, nakon čega se izrađuje prijedlog pojedinačnog programa izvršavanja kazne zatvora i praćenja ostvarivanja predloženih programa u kaznionicama i zatvorima. U istraživanju provedenom u Upravi za zatvorski sustav obuhvaćeno je 3.867 zatvorenika koji su u razdoblju od 1. siječnja 1991. do 31. prosinca 1997. prvi put došli na dijagnostiku. Rezultati istraživanja su pokazali da se tijekom izvršavanja kazne odnosno provedenog tretmana djelovalo na kriminogene varijable tako da one više značajno ne potiču na kriminalno ponašanje kao prije dolaska na izvršenje kazne te da relativno niska stopa kriminalnog povrata kod osuđenika ukazuje na tendenciju učinkovitosti provedenih tretmana u hrvatskim zatvorima tijekom izvršenja kazne

Quantitative research in practice: applying a differential scale questionnaire to literature

Literary scholarship has traditionally relied on interpretative studies. Grounded on the theoretical bases of the Empirical Study of Literature, this paper moves away from such tradition by adopting an empirical perspective. Its purpose is to report on the design of a questionnaire and how semantic differentials were created so as to elicit responses from readers from two different cultures, namely, Ukraine and Brazil. The study described in this paper enables researchers to look into readers‟ reactions to a given poem from a collective viewpoint

Control of sediment diversion in run-of-river hydropower schemes

Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Sedimentation and the effects it has on turbine blades was the primary problem identified in run-of-river (RoR) hydropower schemes. Sedimentation in RoR hydropower schemes also increases trash rack blockage and reduces energy output in the long-term. Damage occurs to all underwater parts that come into contact with sediment. The main concern is sediment passing through the hydropower intake and causing turbine damage. The reason for the abrasion and cavitation of turbine blades is increased sediment loads in river channels. This problem can be overcome in two ways. The first is the use of existing lakes or reservoir storage upstream as natural sand traps, and the second is by investigating the three features associated with river bend diversion, which are: the optimum diversion location in a river bend to minimise the abstraction of sediment, the optimum diversion structure angle to limit coarse sediment diversion, and the sediment load diverted through the intake. The first objective of the research was investigated by construction of a physical model of a curved river channel to determine the location of the deepest scour forming on the outside of the bend. The second objective was to test the diversion orientation to maximize the local scour and thereby limiting sediment diversion at the intake. A third objective was to compare mathematical 2D model simulated scour results with the findings of the laboratory tests to evaluate the reliability of the numerical model predictions. Finally different diverted discharge ratios were tested with different intake setups in the physical model, to evaluate the sediment load diverted. . The first experiment in the curved laboratory channel was to predict where the deepest scour takes place without a diversion structure. This was then followed by placing a diversion structure at the maximum scour position, retrieved from experiment one, and by angling the structure with reference to the flow direction. The flow direction vector was placed as a tangent to the bend and orientated at angles of 0⁰, 30⁰, 45⁰ and 60⁰ into the bend direction. The optimum diversion location was found to be positioned on the outside of the bend, approximately 60⁰ into the channel bend. The final position of maximum scour in a 90⁰ bend corresponds with the Sediment Committee and the Chinese Hydraulic Engineering Societies (1992) prediction of 60⁰ into the bend. The optimal diversion had a 30⁰ angle to the flow direction, as this presented the most efficient and effective scouring in front of the model intake. Numerical simulations were performed with the CCHE 2D (hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics) modelling program. The numerical results were compared to the physical results to validate CCHE as a beneficial simulation tool. It was found that the numerical model predicted the scour depths at the intakes tested with an accuracy of 43.8%, which is within the accuracy range of the sediment transport equation used by the numerical model. The final experiment was the diversion of sediment with different intake level heights and discharges. It was evident from the results that low sediment diversion ratios were achieved with a diverted discharge ratio of 50% or less. The intake elevation highest above the channel bed diverted the least sediment. The interrelationship between Diverted Discharge Ratio (DDR), Diverted Froude number Ratio (DFrR) and Diverted Sediment load Ratio (SDR) was established in the study. It is recommended that RoR schemes have sand traps downstream of the diversion structures and that turbines are coated with HVOF to overcome the power loss arising due to the excessive erosion of hydro turbines.AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Sedimentasie en die invloed wat dit het op turbines was die primêre probleem geïdentifiseer in “run-of-river” (RoR) hidrokrag-skemas. Die sediment wat saam met die water uit ‟n rivier uitgekeer word beskadig die inlaatrooster en verlaag kragopwekking in die langtermyn. Skade word aangerig aan alle onderwatertoerusting en masjinerie wat aan sediment blootgestel word. Die grootste probleem tydens die uitkering van water is die growwe sediment wat daarmee deur die onttrekking inlaat gaan en turbineskade veroorsaak. Soos wat die sedimentlading in die rivier drasties toeneem, sal afslyting en kavitasie van turbinelemme meer gereeld voorkom. Dié probleem kan op twee maniere beperk word. Die een is die gebruik van bestaande opgaardamme stroomop, en die tweede is deur die ondersoek van drie kenmerke van rivierdraaie en uitkeringstrukture, bv. die optimale uitskurings posisie in 'n rivierdraai (sonder ʼn struktuur) om die diepste uitskuringposisie op die buitekant van die draai te bepaal, die optimale uitkeringsstruktuuroriëntasie wat maksimum uitskuring verseker en die sediment uitkering beperk, en die lading van sedimentonttrekking deur die inlaat. Die eerste doelwit van die navorsing is ondersoek deur ʼn fisiese model te bou van ʼn kronkelkanaal en te bepaal waar die diepste uitskring plaasvind op die buitekant van die draai. Die tweede doelwit van die studie was om die optimale uitkeringshoek te bepaal vir 'n uitkeringstruktuur sodat die uitskuring by die inlaat ʼn maksimum is om die uitkering van sediment te beperk. ʼn Derde doelwit was om die akkuraatheid van ʼn wiskundige model se uitskuring voorspelling te toets teen die waargenome laboratorium resultate. Die finale doelwit was om vir verskillende inlaatontwerpe, rivier- en uitkeervloeie die sedimentladings wat uitgekeer word te ondersoek. Die eerste eksperiment in die kronkelende kanaal was voorberei om die optimale uitskuring in die draai te bepaal. Dit is gevolg deur toetse met uitkeerstrukture by die maksimum uitskurings posisie te plaas en die hoek van die struktuur dan te verander met verwysing na die vloeirigting. Die vloeirigting vektor was as 'n raaklyn geplaas op die kanaal draai en georiënteer met hoeke: 0⁰, 30⁰, 45⁰ en 60⁰, in die rigting van die draai. Die optimale uitskurings posisie was aan die buiterand van die kanaal draai gevind, ongeveer 60⁰ in die draai in. Die maksimum uitskuur posisie van 'n 90⁰ kanaal draai stem ooreen met SC en CHES (1992) se resultaat van 60⁰ in die draai in. Daar was ook genoegsame bewyse dat 'n optimale uitkeerwerke oriëntasie van 30⁰ die doeltreffendste en effektiefste uitskuring sal gee. Numeriese simulasies is deur middel van 'n twee dimensionele wiskundige model CCHE 2D (hidro- en sedimentdinamika) uitgevoer. Die numeriese resultate was vergelyk met die laboratoriumresultate om die CCHE program te verifieer as 'n voordelige simulasie program. Daar is gevind dat die wiskundige model die uitskuurdieptes by die inlate met ʼn akkuraatheid van 43.8 % voorspel, wat binne die akkuraatheid is van die sedimentvervoervergelyking wat deur die numeriese model gebruik word. Die finale eksperiment was die uitkering van sediment met verskillende inlaathoogtes en uitkerings sedimentladings. Uit die toetse was dit duidelik dat 'n lae sediment uitkeerverhouding behaal kan word met 'n uitkeerverhouding van 50% en minder. Verdere waarnemings het ook gewys dat die inlaathoogte van die uitkeerstruktuur met die optimale resultate die hoogste bokant die rivierbedding was. Die verwantskap tussen die uitgekeerde deurstromingverhouding, die uitgekeerde Froude getal verhouding en die uitgekeerde sedimentlading is bepaal in die navorsing. Dit word aanbeveel dat sandvangkanale stroomaf van uitkeerwerke geplaas word en dat turbines met HVOF as bedekkingsmateriaal beskerm word om kragverliese as gevolg van buitensporige erosie van die turbines te voorkom

Drogenmissbrauch und kriminelles Verhalten

Cilj istraživanja bio je utvrditi kakav je odnos između zlouporabe droge i uključivanja u kriminalno ponašanje. Ispitivanje je provedeno s 1102 osobe koje su se prvi put javile na liječenje u Centar za izvanbolničko liječenje ovisnosti pri KB \u27\u27Sestre milosrdnice\u27\u27. Primijenjen je, u obliku intervjua, Upitnik s osnovnim podacima o ovisnicima u programu liječenja kojim su prikupljeni podaci o zlouporabi droge, kriminalnom ponašanju te o sociodemografskim obilježjima ispitanika i obilježjima njihovih obitelji. Rezultati su posebno obrađeni za ispitanike muškoga i ženskoga spola. U uzorku muških ispitanika dobivene su statistički značajne razlike s obzirom na zlouporabu droge i uključenost u kriminalno ponašanje: veći broj osoba počini prvo kazneno djelo tek nakon što počne konzumirati drogu; ispitanici koji konzumiraju teže droge (opijate i stimulanse) čine teža kaznena djela, a osobe koje duže vremena konzumiraju drogu čine i teža kaznena djela i češće se bave kriminalnom djelatnošću. U žena nisu dobivene značajne razlike s obzirom na zlouporabu droge i uključenost u kriminalno ponašanje. Provedenom stupnjevitom regresijskom analizom dobiveno je šest značajnih prediktora kriminalnoga ponašanja muškaraca: naobrazba ispitanika, duljina konzumiranja droge, imovinske prilike obitelji, uzima li laku ili tešku drogu, dob ispitanika i naobrazba majke. Nijedna varijabla nije se pokazala statistički značajnom u objašnjavanju kriminalnoga ponašanja žena. Rezultati istraživanja pridonose razumijevanju prirode odnosa između kriminalnog ponašanja i zlouporabe droge te mogu predstavljati pomoć za izradu i provedbu programa u suzbijanju ovisnosti o drogama i smanjenju kriminalne aktivnosti.The aim of the research was to determine the relationship between the abuse of drugs and involvement in criminal behaviour. The research was conducted on 1102 persons who registered for treatment for the first time at the Centre for Outpatient Treatment of Addictions in the Sisters of Mercy University Hospital. A questionnaire in the form of an interview was applied with the basic information on the addicts in the treatment programme including data on drug abuse, criminal behaviour and sociodemographic characteristics of the examinees and their families. The results were separately analysed for the men and women examinees. In the sample of men statistically significant differences were obtained with regard to drug abuse and involvement in criminal behaviour: more persons commit their first criminal act after having started taking drugs; examinees consuming heavier drugs (opiates and stimulants) commit more serious criminal acts, while persons consuming drugs for longer periods of time commit more serious criminal acts and more often engage in criminal activity. In women examinees significant differences regarding drug abuse and involvement in criminal behaviour were not obtained. Stepwise regression analysis uncovered six important predictors of criminal behaviour in men: the examinee\u27s level of education, length of drug consumption, family\u27s financial status, consumption of light or heavy drugs, examinee\u27s age and mother\u27s level of education. None of the variables proved statistically significant in explaining the criminal behaviour of women. The results of research contribute to the understanding of the relationship between criminal behaviour and drug abuse and can be of assistance in creating and implementing the programme for the prevention of drug addiction and criminal activity.Mit der vorliegenden Untersuchung sollte festgestellt werden, in welchem Bezug der Drogenmissbrauch und kriminelles Verhalten zueinander stehen. Die Untersuchung umfasste 1102 Personen, die sich zum ersten Mal unter Aufsicht des Zentrums für ambulante Behandlung von Suchtkrankheiten befanden, das dem Klinikum "Sestre milosrdnice" in Zagreb angeschlossen ist. Im Rahmen eines Gesprächs wurden die Befragten aufgefordert, Aussagen über den Drogenmissbrauch, kriminelles Verhalten und soziodemografische Merkmale der eigenen Person sowie der Familienangehörigen zu machen. Die Umfragen wurden gesondert für Männer und Frauen ausgewertet. Die Angaben der befragten Männer ergaben statistisch relevante Unterschiede bezüglich Drogenmissbrauch und kriminelles Verhalten: Die meisten begehen ihre erste Straftat erst nach Beginn des Drogenkonsums; Personen, die härtere Drogen nehmen (Opiate und Stimulanzien), begehen schwerere Straftaten; Personen, die über längere Zeit Drogen nehmen, neigen zu schwereren Straftaten und wiederholtem kriminellem Verhalten. Unter den Frauen ergaben sich keine relevanten Unterschiede dieser Art. Mittels einer graduellen Regressionsanalyse konnten sechs wichtige Prädiktoren für kriminelles Verhalten unter Männern ermittelt werden: Bildungsgrad, Dauer des Drogenkonsums, Vermögensverhältnisse der Familie, Art der konsumierten Drogen (leichte oder schwere), Alter des Befragten und Bildungsgrad der Mutter. Jedoch keine dieser Variablen erwies sich als statistisch relevant, um kriminelles Verhalten unter Frauen zu erklären. Die Ergebnisse dieser Untersuchung tragen dazu bei, den Bezug zwischen kriminellem Verhalten und Drogenmissbrauch besser zu verstehen, und helfen uns bei der Anfertigung und Durchführung von Programmen zur Bekämpfung des Drogenmissbrauchs und zur Eindämmung von Kriminalverhalten

Predição de ocupação de leitos hospitalares de terapia intensiva no curto prazo utilizando redes neurais artificiais

TCC (graduação) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro Tecnológico, Ciências da Computação.Prever com eficácia a demanda por atendimentos é importante em praticamente todos os tipos de serviços ofertados ao público, pois alocar menos recursos do que o necessário pode levar a perda da qualidade do atendimento ao consumidor e alocar recursos a mais pode significar desperdício de tais recursos. No caso específico de hospitais, a espera demasiada por atendimento pode levar ao óbito de pacientes e a alta demanda por serviços hospitalares públicos obriga um uso ótimo de recursos, evitando desperdício. Este trabalho dá uma breve visão sobre o problema de predição de ocupação de leitos hospitalares, e usando os dados disponíveis pelo DATASUS dos hospitais do estado de Santa Catarina, faz uma decomposição da série temporal da ocupação de leitos, buscando explicar comportamento das mesmas, os dados obtidos e tratados foram usados para treinamento de diversas redes LSTM, com o objetivo de prever a ocupação de leitos de UTI no estado de Santa Catarina. Finalmente, o trabalho faz uma comparação entre os modelos desenvolvidos, concluindo que a rede que apresentou os melhores resultados foram obtidos com o modelo do terceiro governo do período estudado, utilizando apenas 4 neurônios na camada oculta, e considerando 3 semanas anteriores para a predição.Effectively predicting demand for healthcare services is important in virtually all types of public services, as allocating fewer resources than necessary can result in a loss of quality in consumer care, while allocating excessive resources can lead to wastage. In the specific case of hospitals, excessive waiting times for care can lead to patient mortality, and the high demand for public hospital services necessitates optimal resource utilization to avoid waste. This study provides a brief overview of the problem of predicting hospital bed occupancy and, using the available data from DATASUS on hospitals in the state of Santa Catarina, decomposes the time series of bed occupancy to explain its behavior. The obtained and processed data were used to train various LSTM networks with the aim of predicting ICU bed occupancy in the state of Santa Catarina. Finally, the study compares the developed models, concluding that the best results were achieved with the model from the third government of the period studied, using only 4 neurons in the hidden layer and considering the previous 3 weeks for prediction

Leadership behaviour that facilitates shared leadership emergence in internationally dispersed non-formal teams

PURPOSE: Globalisation and the increased complexity of organisations create the need for alternative leadership approaches that can harness the collective intellectual capital that exists within the dispersed employees of organisations. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH : This qualitative study explored how shared leadership can be facilitated in internationally dispersed non-formal teams through increased team connectedness, leader humility, empowering leadership, participative leadership and quality leader-member exchanges. The study explored the perspectives of 12 purposively sampled internationally dispersed team members, who represented three different functional non-formal teams. FINDINGS/RESULTS : : As dispersion of teams increases, some traditional leadership approaches become less effective. Shared leadership, however, has greater effects on team performance when team dispersion increases. Practical implications: The study offers a theoretical framework of leadership in internationally dispersed non-formal teams, which serves as a basis for future empirical research. It provides leaders of teams and organisations, as well as human resource practitioners with guidance on how to achieve the benefits of shared leadership of teams in this context. Participants represented nine nationalities, dispersed across eight countries, on four continents. ORIGINALITY/VALUE : Studies into shared leadership have increased over the past decade; however, the antecedents that facilitate shared leadership are still not exhaustive, and the majority of studies have been in co-located and formal teams. This study provides insight into how non-formal leaders can facilitate the emergence of shared leadership in the context of dispersed, non-formal teams.http://www.sajbm.orgGordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS