The geographic distribution of onchocerciasis in the 20 participating countries of the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control:(2) pre-control endemicity levels and estimated number infected

BACKGROUND: The original aim of the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) was to control onchocerciasis as a public health problem in 20 African countries. In order to identify all high risk areas where ivermectin treatment was needed to achieve control, APOC used Rapid Epidemiological Mapping of Onchocerciasis (REMO). REMO involved spatial sampling of villages to be surveyed, and examination of 30 to 50 adults per village for palpable onchocercal nodules. REMO has now been virtually completed and we report the results in two articles. A companion article reports the delineation of high risk areas based on expert analysis. The present article reports the results of a geostatistical analysis of the REMO data to map endemicity levels and estimate the number infected. METHODS: A model-based geostatistical analysis of the REMO data was undertaken to generate high-resolution maps of the predicted prevalence of nodules and of the probability that the true nodule prevalence exceeds the high risk threshold of 20%. The number infected was estimated by converting nodule prevalence to microfilaria prevalence, and multiplying the predicted prevalence for each location with local data on population density. The geostatistical analysis included the nodule palpation data for 14,473 surveyed villages. RESULTS: The generated map of onchocerciasis endemicity levels, as reflected in the prevalence of nodules, is a significant advance with many new endemic areas identified. The prevalence of nodules was > 20% over an area of 2.5 million km2 with an estimated population of 62 million people. The results were consistent with the delineation of high risk areas of the expert analysis except for borderline areas where the prevalence fluctuated around 20%. It is estimated that 36 million people would have been infected in the APOC countries by 2011 if there had been no ivermectin treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The map of onchocerciasis endemicity levels has proven very valuable for onchocerciasis control in the APOC countries. Following the recent shift to onchocerciasis elimination, the map continues to play an important role in planning treatment, evaluating impact and predicting treatment end dates in relation to local endemicity levels

Feasibility of Onchocerciasis Elimination with Ivermectin Treatment in Endemic Foci in Africa: First Evidence from Studies in Mali and Senegal

The control of onchocerciasis, or river blindness, is based on annual or six-monthly ivermectin treatment of populations at risk. This has been effective in controlling the disease as a public health problem, but it is not known whether it can also eliminate infection and transmission to the extent that treatment can be safely stopped. Many doubt that this is feasible in Africa. A study was undertaken in three hyperendemic onchocerciasis foci in Mali and Senegal where treatment has been given for 15 to 17 years. The results showed that only few infections remained in the human population and that transmission levels were everywhere below postulated thresholds for elimination. Treatment was subsequently stopped in test areas in each focus, and follow-up evaluations did not detect any recrudescence of infection or transmission. Hence, the study has provided the first evidence that onchocerciasis elimination is feasible with ivermectin treatment in some endemic foci in Africa. Although further studies are needed to determine to what extent these findings can be extrapolated to other areas in Africa, the principle of onchocerciasis elimination with ivermectin treatment has been established

Macrofilaricides and onchocerciasis control, mathematical modelling of the prospects for elimination

BACKGROUND: In most endemic parts of the world, onchocerciasis (river blindness) control relies, or will soon rely, exclusively on mass treatment with the microfilaricide ivermectin. Worldwide eradication of the parasite by means of this drug is unlikely. Macrofilaricidal drugs are currently being developed for human use. METHODS: We used ONCHOSIM, a microsimulation mathematical model of the dynamics of onchocerciasis transmission, to explore the potentials of a hypothetical macrofilaricidal drug for the elimination of onchocerciasis under different epidemiological conditions, as characterized by previous intervention strategies, vectorial capacity and levels of coverage. RESULTS: With a high vector biting rate and poor coverage, a very effective macrofilaricide would appear to have a substantially higher potential for achieving elimination of the parasite than does ivermectin. CONCLUSIONS: Macrofilaricides have a substantially higher potential for achieving onchocerciasis elimination than ivermectin, but high coverage levels are still key. When these drugs become available, onchocerciasis elimination strategies should be reconsidered. In view of the impact of control efforts preceding the introduction of macrofilaricides on the success of elimination, it is important to sustain current control efforts

Defining Research to Improve Health Systems

Robert Terry and colleagues present working definitions of operational research, implementation research, and health systems research within the context of research to strengthen health systems

Onchocerciasis: The Pre-control Association between Prevalence of Palpable Nodules and Skin Microfilariae

*Background*: The prospect of eliminating onchocerciasis from Africa by mass treatment with ivermectin has been rejuvenated following recent successes in foci in Mali, Nigeria and Senegal. Elimination prospects depend strongly on local transmission conditions and therefore on pre-control infection levels. Pre-control infection levels in Africa have been mapped largely by means of nodule palpation of adult males, a relatively crude method for detecting infection. We investigated how informative pre-control nodule prevalence data are for estimating the pre-control prevalence of

Genome-wide association analyses identify new Brugada syndrome risk loci and highlight a new mechanism of sodium channel regulation in disease susceptibility.

Brugada syndrome (BrS) is a cardiac arrhythmia disorder associated with sudden death in young adults. With the exception of SCN5A, encoding the cardiac sodium channel Na1.5, susceptibility genes remain largely unknown. Here we performed a genome-wide association meta-analysis comprising 2,820 unrelated cases with BrS and 10,001 controls, and identified 21 association signals at 12 loci (10 new). Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-heritability estimates indicate a strong polygenic influence. Polygenic risk score analyses based on the 21 susceptibility variants demonstrate varying cumulative contribution of common risk alleles among different patient subgroups, as well as genetic associations with cardiac electrical traits and disorders in the general population. The predominance of cardiac transcription factor loci indicates that transcriptional regulation is a key feature of BrS pathogenesis. Furthermore, functional studies conducted on MAPRE2, encoding the microtubule plus-end binding protein EB2, point to microtubule-related trafficking effects on Na1.5 expression as a new underlying molecular mechanism. Taken together, these findings broaden our understanding of the genetic architecture of BrS and provide new insights into its molecular underpinnings

Control, elimination, and eradication of river blindness: scenarios, timelines, and ivermectin treatment needs in Africa

River blindness (onchocerciasis) causes severe itching, skin lesions, and vision impairment including blindness. More than 99% of all current cases are found in sub-Saharan Africa. Fortunately, vector control and community-directed treatment with ivermectin have significantly reduced morbidity. Studies in Mali and Senegal proved the feasibility of elimination with ivermectin administration. The treatment goal is shifting from control to elimination in endemic African regions. Given limited resources, national and global policymakers need a rigorous analysis comparing investment options. For this, we developed scenarios for alternative treatment goals and compared treatment timelines and drug needs between the scenarios. Control, elimination, and eradication scenarios were developed with reference to current standard practices, large-scale studies, and historical data. For each scenario, the timeline when treatment is expected to stop at country level was predicted using a dynamical transmission model, and ivermectin treatment needs were predicted based on population in endemic areas, treatment coverage data, and the frequency of community-directed treatment. The control scenario requires community-directed treatment with ivermectin beyond 2045 with around 2.63 billion treatments over 2013-2045; the elimination scenario, until 2028 in areas where feasible, but beyond 2045 in countries with operational challenges, around 1.15 billion treatments; and the eradication scenario, lasting until 2040, around 1.30 billion treatments. The eradication scenario is the most favorable in terms of the timeline of the intervention phase and treatment needs. For its realization, strong health systems and political will are required to overcome epidemiological and political challenges

Correction to: Control, Elimination, and Eradication of River Blindness: Scenarios, Timelines, and Ivermectin Treatment Needs in Africa (PLoS Negl Trop Dis, 9, 5)

Correcito

The geographic distribution of loa loa in Africa:results of large-scale implementation of the Rapid Assessment Procedure for Loiasis (RAPLOA)

Background: Loiasis is a major obstacle to ivermectin treatment for onchocerciasis control and lymphatic filariasis elimination in central Africa. In communities with a high level of loiasis endemicity, there is a significant risk of severe adverse reactions to ivermectin treatment. Information on the geographic distribution of loiasis in Africa is urgently needed but available information is limited. The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) undertook large scale mapping of loiasis in 11 potentially endemic countries using a rapid assessment procedure for loiasis (RAPLOA) that uses a simple questionnaire on the history of eye worm. Methodology/Principal Findings: RAPLOA surveys were done in a spatial sample of 4798 villages covering an area of 250063000 km centred on the heartland of loiasis in Africa. The surveys showed high risk levels of loiasis in 10 countries where an estimated 14.4 million people live in high risk areas. There was a strong spatial correlation among RAPLOA data, and kriging was used to produce spatially smoothed contour maps of the interpolated prevalence of eye worm and the predictive probability that the prevalence exceeds 40%. Conclusion/Significance: The contour map of eye worm prevalence provides the first global map of loiasis based on actual survey data. It shows a clear distribution with two zones of hyper endemicity, large areas that are free of loiasis and several borderline or intermediate zones. The surveys detected several previously unknown hyperendemic foci, clarified the distribution of loiasis in the Central African Republic and large parts of the Republic of Congo and the Democratic Republic of Congo for which hardly any information was available, and confirmed known loiasis foci. The new maps of the prevalence of eye worm and the probability that the prevalence exceeds the risk threshold of 40% provide critical information for ivermectin treatment programs among millions of people in Africa