HEDGING WITH FUTURES AND OPTIONS UNDER A TRUNCATED CASH PRICE DISTRIBUTION

Many agricultural producers face cash price distributions that are effectively truncated at a lower limit through participation in farm programs designed to support farm prices and incomes. For example, the 1996 Federal Agricultural Improvement Act (FAIR) makes many producers eligible to obtain marketing loans which truncate their cash price realization at the loan rate, while allowing market prices to freely equilibrate supply and demand. This paper studies the effects of truncated cash price distributions on the optimal use of futures and options. The results show that truncation in the cash price distribution facing an individual producer provides incentives to trade options as well as futures. We derive optimal futures and options trading rules under options as well as futures. We derive optimal futures and options trading rules under a range of different truncation scenarios. Empirical results highlights the impacts of basis risk and yield risk on the optimal futures and options portfolio.farm programs, futures, hedging, options, truncation, Marketing,

Slip complexity in a crustal plane model of an earthquake fault

We study numerically the behavior of a two-dimensional elastic plate (a crustal plane) that terminates along one of its edges at a fault boundary. Slip-weakening friction at the boundary, inertial dynamics in the bulk, and uniform slow loading via elastic coupling to a substrate combine to produce a complex, deterministically chaotic sequence of slipping events. We observe a power-law distribution of small events and an excess of large events. For the small events, the moments scale with rupture length in a manner that is consistent with seismological observations. For the large events, rupture occurs in the form of narrow propagating pulses

Low power pulsed MPD thruster system analysis and applications

Pulsed magnetoplasmadynamic (MPD) thruster systems were analyzed for application to solar-electric orbit transfer vehicles at power levels ranging from 10 to 40 kW. Potential system level benefits of pulsed propulsion technology include ease of power scaling without thruster performance changes, improved transportability from low power flight experiments to operational systems, and reduced ground qualification costs. Required pulsed propulsion system components include a pulsed applied-field MPD thruster, a pulse-forming network, a charge control unit, a cathode heater supply, and high speed valves. Mass estimates were obtained for each propulsion subsystem and spacecraft component using off-the-shelf technology whenever possible. Results indicate that for payloads of 1000 and 2000 kg pulsed MPD thrusters can reduce launch mass by between 1000 and 2500 kg over those achievable with hydrogen arcjets, which can be used to reduce launch vehicle class and the associated launch cost. While the achievable mass savings depends on the trip time allowed for the mission, cases are shown in which the launch vehicle required for a mission is decreased from an Atlas IIAS to an Atlas I or Delta 7920

Planetary Collisions outside the Solar System: Time Domain Characterization of Extreme Debris Disks

Luminous debris disks of warm dust in the terrestrial planet zones around solar-like stars are recently found to vary, indicative of ongoing large-scale collisions of rocky objects. We use Spitzer 3.6 and 4.5 {\mu}m time-series observations in 2012 and 2013 (extended to 2014 in one case) to monitor 5 more debris disks with unusually high fractional luminosities ("extreme debris disk"), including P1121 in the open cluster M47 (80 Myr), HD 15407A in the AB Dor moving group (80 Myr), HD 23514 in the Pleiades (120 Myr), HD 145263 in the Upper Sco Association (10 Myr), and the field star BD+20 307 (>1 Gyr). Together with the published results for ID8 in NGC 2547 (35 Myr), this makes the first systematic time-domain investigation of planetary impacts outside the solar system. Significant variations with timescales shorter than a year are detected in five out of the six extreme debris disks we have monitored. However, different systems show diverse sets of characteristics in the time domain, including long-term decay or growth, disk temperature variations, and possible periodicity.Comment: 50 pages, 14 figures, 9 tables; Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

Screening for primary aldosteronism- normal ranges for aldosterone and renin in three South African population groups

Objective. To establish normal ranges for plasma aldosterone, renin and aldosterone / renin (A/ R) ratio in South African normotensives under typical ou tpatient conditions, and to estimate the prevalence of primary aldosteronism (PA) among hypertensives in primary care settings.Design and methods. One hundred and thirty-six normotensive subjects and 154 sex- and age-matched hypertensives at three primary care clinics had measurements of blood pressure, plasma creatinine, K+, aldosterone, plasma renin activity, and spot urine for urinary Na+/ creatinine ratio. Medication was not withdrawn before testing.Results. Mean plasma renin activity in black normotensive subjects (0.95 ± 1.25 ng/ ml/ h, mean± standard deviation (SD)) was significantly lower than in white (2.09 ± 1.12 ng/ ml/ h; P < 0.0001) and coloured (1.81 ± 1.86 ng/ ml/ h, P = 0.013) normotensives. Mean plasma aldosterone in black normotensives (306 ± 147 pmol/ 1) was also significantly lower than in white (506 ± 324 pmol/1, P = 0.0002) and coloured (418 ± 304 pmol/1, P = 0.0148) normotensives. In hypertensives, there were no significant differences in renin or aldosterone levels between the three population groups. Urinary Na+ /creatinine ratios, an index of Na+ intake, were not significantly different in the three population groups. None of the normotensives had an A/R ratio ≥ 1 000 plus aldosterone ≥ 750, while 7.1% of hypertensives exceeded these levels, suggesting that they are appropriate criteria for screening for PA.Conclusions. A large fraction of black normotensive subjects had low renin and aldosterone levels compared with whites, suggesting a salt-retaining tendency in black subjects. These results have important implications for the interpretation of plasma renin and aldosterone levels in hypertensive patients. In primary care settings, 7.1% of hypertensives had biochemical results indicating the need for investigation of PA

Geographic and temporal morphological stasis in the latest Cretaceous ammonoid Discoscaphites iris from the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic Coastal Plains

We examine temporal and spatial variation in morphology of the ammonoid cephalopod Discoscaphites iris using a large dataset from multiple localities in the Late Cretaceous (Maastrichtian) of the United States Gulf and Atlantic Coastal Plains, spanning a distance of 2000 km along the paleoshoreline. Our results suggest that the fossil record of D. iris is consistent with no within species net accumulation of phyletic evolutionary change across morphological traits or the lifetime of this species. Correlations between some traits and paleoenvironmental conditions as well as changes in the coefficient of variation may support limited population-scale ecophenotypic plasticity, however where stratigraphic data are available, no directional changes in morphology occur prior to the Cretaceous/Paleogene (K/Pg) boundary. This is consistent with models of 'dynamic' evolutionary stasis. Combined with knowledge of life history traits and paleoecology of scaphitid ammonoids, specifically a short planktonic phase after hatching followed by transition to a nektobenthic adult stage, these data suggest that scaphitids had significant potential for rapid morphological change in conjunction with limited dispersal capacity. It is therefore likely that evolutionary mode in the Scaphitidae (and potentially across the broader ammonoid clade) follows a model of cladogenesis wherein a dynamic morphological stasis is periodically interrupted by more substantial evolutionary change at speciation events. Finally, the lack of temporal changes in our data suggest that global environmental changes (such as those possibly related to the emplacement of the Deccan Traps Large Igneous Province) had a limited effect on the morphology of North American ammonoid faunas during the latest Cretaceous prior to the K/Pg mass extinction event.Missing morphometric values are highlighted with NA in the dataset.Funding provided by: National Science FoundationCrossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001Award Number: 1924807Funding provided by: American Museum of Natural History and Richard Gilder Graduate School*Crossref Funder Registry ID: Award Number:We assembled a large morphometric dataset consisting of 328 individual fossil specimens of the scaphitid ammonoid cephalopod Discoscaphites iris collected from nine localities in Texas, Missouri, Mississippi, and New Jersey, representing a ~2000 km transect from SW to NE and encompassing the full geographic range of this species. Morphometric parameters were measured on well-preserved adult specimens of two dimorphs (Macroconchs - presumably the female, and microconch, presumably the male). We took up to seven morphometric measurements, and calculated ratios that captured the size, shape, and degree of compression of each of these ammonoid shells from each different locality. We evaluated the coefficient of variation (the standard deviation divided by the mean) for size and shape ratios as well as compression ratios at each locality. We used non-parametric statistical tests [Mann-Whitney U] to evaluate the significance of changes in mean morphological trait values between localities. To correct for multiple comparisons we applied a Bonferroni correction and also controlled for the false discovery rate. We also explored relationships between morphological traits and several environmental variables using linear modelling. All analyses were conducted in the R programming environment

The sloppy model universality class and the Vandermonde matrix

In a variety of contexts, physicists study complex, nonlinear models with many unknown or tunable parameters to explain experimental data. We explain why such systems so often are sloppy; the system behavior depends only on a few `stiff' combinations of the parameters and is unchanged as other `sloppy' parameter combinations vary by orders of magnitude. We contrast examples of sloppy models (from systems biology, variational quantum Monte Carlo, and common data fitting) with systems which are not sloppy (multidimensional linear regression, random matrix ensembles). We observe that the eigenvalue spectra for the sensitivity of sloppy models have a striking, characteristic form, with a density of logarithms of eigenvalues which is roughly constant over a large range. We suggest that the common features of sloppy models indicate that they may belong to a common universality class. In particular, we motivate focusing on a Vandermonde ensemble of multiparameter nonlinear models and show in one limit that they exhibit the universal features of sloppy models.Comment: New content adde

Women with a low satiety phenotype show impaired appetite control and greater resistance to weight loss.

AbstractThis trial compared weight loss outcomes over 14-weeks in women showing low or high satiety responsiveness [low or high satiety phenotype (LSP, HSP)] measured by a standardized protocol. Food preferences and energy intake after low and high energy density (LED, HED) meals were also assessed. Ninety-six women (n = 52 analysed; 41.24 ± 12.54 years; 34.02 ± 3.58 kg/m2) engaged in one of two weight loss programs underwent LED and HED laboratory-test days during weeks 3 and 12. Preferences for LED and HED-foods (Leeds Food Preference Questionnaire) and ad libitum evening meal and snack energy intake (EI) were assessed in response to equi-caloric LED- and HED-breakfasts and lunches. Weekly questionnaires assessed control over eating and ease of adherence to the program. Satiety quotients based on subjective fullness ratings post-LED and HED breakfasts determined LSP (n=26) and HSP (n=26) by tertile splits. Results showed that the LSP lost less weight and had smaller reductions in waist circumference compared to HSP. The LSP showed greater preferences for HED-foods, and under HED-conditions, consumed more snacks (kcal) compared to HSP. Snack EI did not differ under LED-conditions. LSP reported less control over eating and reported more difficulty with program adherence. In conclusion, low satiety responsiveness is detrimental for weight loss. LED meals can improve self-regulation of EI in the LSP, which may be beneficial for longer-term weight control.</jats:p

New supersymmetric solutions of N=2, D=5 gauged supergravity with hyperscalars

We construct new supersymmetric solutions, including AdS bubbles, in an N=2 truncation of five-dimensional N=8 gauged supergravity. This particular truncation is given by N=2 gauged supergravity coupled to two vector multiples and three incomplete hypermultiplets, and was originally investigated in the context of obtaining regular AdS bubble geometries with multiple active R-charges. We focus on cohomogeneity-one solutions corresponding to objects with two equal angular momenta and up to three independent R-charges. Curiously, we find a new set of zero and negative mass solitons asymptotic to AdS_5/Z_k, for k \ge 3, which are everywhere regular without closed timelike curves.Comment: Latex 3 times, 42 page