Defining the frame of minimum nonlinear Hubble expansion variation

We characterize a cosmic rest frame in which the monopole variation of the spherically averaged nonlinear Hubble expansion is most uniform, under arbitrary local Lorentz boosts of the central observer. Using the COMPOSITE sample of 4534 galaxies, we identify a degenerate set of candidate minimum nonlinear variation frames, which includes the rest frame of the Local Group (LG) of galaxies, but excludes the standard Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) frame. Candidate rest frames defined by a boost from the LG frame close to the plane of the galaxy have a statistical likelihood similar to the LG frame. This may result from a lack of constraining data in the Zone of Avoidance. We extend our analysis to the Cosmicflows-2 (CF2) sample of 8162 galaxies. While the signature of a systematic boost offset between the CMB and LG frame averages is still detected, the spherically averaged nonlinear expansion variation in all rest frames is significantly larger in the CF2 sample than would be reasonably expected. We trace this to the CF2 distances being reported without a correction for inhomogeneous distribution Malmquist bias. Systematic differences in the inclusion of the large SFI++ subsample into the COMPOSITE and CF2 catalogues are analysed. Our results highlight the importance of a careful treatment of Malmquist biases for future peculiar velocities studies, including tests of the hypothesis of Wiltshire et al [Phys. Rev. D 88 (2013) 083529; arXiv:1201.5371] that a significant fraction of the CMB temperature dipole may be nonkinematic in origin.Comment: 25 pages, 19 figures; v4 erratum added: small corrections, no change in conclusion

Distribution-Valued Solution Concepts

Under its conventional positive interpretation, game theory predicts that the mixed strategy pro?le of players in a noncooperative game will satisfy some setvalued solution concept. Relative probabilities of pro?les in that set are unspeci?ed, and all pro?les not satisfying it are implicitly assigned probability zero. However the axioms underlying Bayesian rationality say that we should reason about player behavior using a probability density over all mixed strategy pro?les, not using a subset of all such pro?les. Such a density over pro?les can be viewed as a solution concept that is distribution-valued rather than set-valued. A distribution-valued concept provides a best single prediction for any noncooperative game, i.e., a universal re?nement. In addition, regulators can use a distribution-valued solution concept to make Bayes optimal choices of a mechanism, as required by Savage's axioms. In particular, they can do this in strategic situations where conventional mechanism design cannot provide advice. We illustrate all of this on a Cournot duopoly game.Quantal Response Equilibrium, Bayesian Statistics, Entropic prior, Maximum entropy JEL Codes: C02, C11, C70, C72

A theory of unstructured bargaining using distribution-valued solution concepts

In experiments it is typically found that many joint utility outcomes arise in any given unstructured bargaining game. This suggests using a positive unstructured bargaining concept that maps a bargaining game to a probability distribution over outcomes rather than to a single outcome. We show how to "translate" Nash's bargaining axioms to apply to such distributional bargaining concepts. We then prove that a subset of those axioms forces the distribution over outcomes to be a power-law. Unlike Nash's original result, our result holds even if the feasible set is finite. When the feasible set is convex and comprehensive, the mode of the power law distribution is the Harsanyi bargaining solution, and if we require symmetry it is the Nash bargaining solution. However in general these modes of the joint utility distribution are not Bayes-optimal predictions for the joint uitlity, nor are the bargains corresponding to those outcomes the most likely bargains. We then show how an external regulator can use distributional solution concepts to optimally design an unstructured bargaining scenario. Throughout we demonstrate our analysis in computational experiments involving flight rerouting negotiations in the National Airspace System.JEL Codes:

Tectonic setting of Martian volcanoes and deep-seated intrusives

More than 50 volcanoes have been mapped on Mars, and recent geologic studies indicate structural evidence of deep seated intrusive bodies. Most volcanoes in the Tharsis region are volcanotectonic features; they have been associated with large scale tectonic and volcanic processes. They occur along complex systems of faults and grabens having a dominant northwest to southwest trend closely coincident with a great circle, which extends along 90 deg of arc from Tempe Patera to probable volcanic mountains near lat. 40 deg S, long. 150 deg. Deep seated intrusive bodies are also concentrated in the Tharsis region and are recognized mostly where faults have been deflected around their cores. The Elysium Mons-Amphitrites Patera volcanic alignment is subparallel to that of Tharsis but is longer, extending through about 120 deg of arc; it transects the dichotomy boundary and is radial to the Hellas basin. Volcanoes in the Tharsis region have the widest age range of all volcanoes on Mars, as determined by the size-frequency distribution of their craters having diameters of 2, 5, and 16 km

The Pension Inducement to Retire: An Option Value Analysis

The option value model developed in an earlier paper is used to simulate the effect on retirement of changes in a firm's pension plan compared to the effect of changes in Social Security provisions. The provisions of the firm's pension plan have a much greater effect than Social Security regulations on the retirement decisions of the firm's employees. The analysis supports the following conclusions: (1) Increasing the firm's early retirement age from 55 to 60, for example, would reduce by almost 40 percent, from .48 to .30, the fraction of employees that is retired by age 60. (2) The effect of changes in Social Security rules, on the other hand, would be small. Raising the Social Security retirement ages by one year, for example, has very little effect on employee retirement rates. The proportion retired by age 62 is reduced by only about 4 percent. (3) Changes in Social Security provisions that would otherwise encourage workers to continue working can easily be offset by countervailing changes in the provisions of the firm's pension plan. Firm responses, like delaying the Social Security offset to correspond to m later Social Security retirement age, may simply be m logical revision of current firm plan provisions.

Analyzing Policy Risk and Accounting for Strategy: Auctions in the National Airspace System

We examine the potential for simple auction mechanisms to efficiently allocate arrival and departure slots during Ground Delay Programs (GDPs). The analysis is conducted using a new approach to predicting strategic behavior called Predictive Game Theory (PGT). The difference between PGT and the familiar Equilibrium Concept Approach (ECA) is that PGT models produce distribution-valued solut tion concepts rather than set-valued ones. The advantages of PGT over ECA in policy analysis and design are that PGT allows for decision-theoretic prediction and policy evaluation. Furthermore, PGT allows for a comprehensive account of risk, including two types of risk, systematic and modeling, that cannot be considered with the ECA. The results show that the second price auction dominates the first price auction in many decision-relevant categories, including higher expected efficiency, lower variance in efficiency, lower probability of significant efficiency loss and higher probability of significant efficiency gain. These findings are despite the fact that there is no a priori reason to expect the second price auction to be more efficient because none of the conventional reasons for preferring second price over first price auctions, i.e. dominant strategy implementability, apply to the GDP slot auction setting.auction, ground delay program, entropy, predictive game theory, strategic risk

Pensions, The Option Value of Work, and Retirement

The paper develops a model of retirement based on the option value of continuing to work. Continuing to work maintains the option of retiring on more advantageous terms later. The model is used to estimate the effects on retirement of firm pension plan provisions. Typical defined benefit pension plans in the United States provide very substantial incentives to remain with the firm until some age, often the early retirement age, and then a strong incentive to leave the firm thereafter. (This may be a major reason for the rapidly declining labor force participation rates of older workers in the United States.) The model fits firm retirement data very well; it captures very closely the sharp discontinuous jumps in retirement rates at specific ages. The model is used to simulate the effect on retirement of potential changes in pension plan provisions. Increasing the age of early retirement from 55 to 60, for example, would reduce firm departure rates between ages 50 and 59 by almost forty percent.

Cruise noise of the 2/9th scale model of the Large-scale Advanced Propfan (LAP) propeller, SR-7A

Noise data on the Large-scale Advanced Propfan (LAP) propeller model SR-7A were taken in the NASA Lewis Research Center 8 x 6 foot Wind Tunnel. The maximum blade passing tone noise first rises with increasing helical tip Mach number to a peak level, then remains the same or decreases from its peak level when going to higher helical tip Mach numbers. This trend was observed for operation at both constant advance ratio and approximately equal thrust. This noise reduction or, leveling out at high helical tip Mach numbers, points to the use of higher propeller tip speeds as a possible method to limit airplane cabin noise while maintaining high flight speed and efficiency. Projections of the tunnel model data are made to the full scale LAP propeller mounted on the test bed aircraft and compared with predictions. The prediction method is found to be somewhat conservative in that it slightly overpredicts the projected model data at the peak

The effect of swirl recovery vanes on the cruise noise of an advanced propeller

The SR-7A propeller was acoustically tested with and without downstream swirl recovery vanes to determine if any extra noise was caused by the interaction of the propeller wakes and vortices with these vanes. No additional noise was observed at the cruise condition over the angular range tested. The presence of the swirl recovery vanes did unload the propeller and some small peak noise reductions were observed from lower propeller loading noise. The propeller was also tested alone to investigate the behavior of the peak propeller noise with helical tip Mach number. As observed before on other propellers, the peak noise first rose with helical tip Mach number and then leveled off or decreased at higher helical tip Mach numbers. Detailed pressure-time histories indicate that a portion of the primary pressure pulse is progressively cancelled by a secondary pulse as the helical tip Mach number is increased. This cancellation appears to be responsible for the peak noise behavior at high helical tip Mach numbers