Reinforcement learning in ophthalmology: potential applications and challenges to implementation

Reinforcement learning is a subtype of machine learning in which a virtual agent, functioning within a set of predefined rules, aims to maximise a specified outcome or reward. This agent can consider multiple variables and many parallel actions at once to optimise its reward, thereby solving complex, sequential problems. Clinical decision making requires physicians to optimise patient outcomes within a set practice framework and, thus, presents considerable opportunity for the implementation of reinforcement learning-driven solutions. We provide an overview of reinforcement learning, and focus on potential applications within ophthalmology. We also explore the challenges associated with development and implementation of reinforcement learning solutions and discuss possible approaches to address them

Evaluating an automated machine learning model that predicts visual acuity outcomes in patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration

PURPOSE: Neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) is a major global cause of blindness. Whilst anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) treatment is effective, response varies considerably between individuals. Thus, patients face substantial uncertainty regarding their future ability to perform daily tasks. In this study, we evaluate the performance of an automated machine learning (AutoML) model which predicts visual acuity (VA) outcomes in patients receiving treatment for nAMD, in comparison to a manually coded model built using the same dataset. Furthermore, we evaluate model performance across ethnic groups and analyse how the models reach their predictions. METHODS: Binary classification models were trained to predict whether patients' VA would be 'Above' or 'Below' a score of 70 one year after initiating treatment, measured using the Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) chart. The AutoML model was built using the Google Cloud Platform, whilst the bespoke model was trained using an XGBoost framework. Models were compared and analysed using the What-if Tool (WIT), a novel model-agnostic interpretability tool. RESULTS: Our study included 1631 eyes from patients attending Moorfields Eye Hospital. The AutoML model (area under the curve [AUC], 0.849) achieved a highly similar performance to the XGBoost model (AUC, 0.847). Using the WIT, we found that the models over-predicted negative outcomes in Asian patients and performed worse in those with an ethnic category of Other. Baseline VA, age and ethnicity were the most important determinants of model predictions. Partial dependence plot analysis revealed a sigmoidal relationship between baseline VA and the probability of an outcome of 'Above'. CONCLUSION: We have described and validated an AutoML-WIT pipeline which enables clinicians with minimal coding skills to match the performance of a state-of-the-art algorithm and obtain explainable predictions

Deep-learning automated quantification of longitudinal OCT scans demonstrates reduced RPE loss rate, preservation of intact macular area and predictive value of isolated photoreceptor degeneration in geographic atrophy patients receiving C3 inhibition treatment

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the role of automated optical coherence tomography (OCT) segmentation, using a validated deep-learning model, for assessing the effect of C3 inhibition on the area of geographic atrophy (GA); the constituent features of GA on OCT (photoreceptor degeneration (PRD), retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) loss and hypertransmission); and the area of unaffected healthy macula.To identify OCT predictive biomarkers for GA growth. METHODS: Post hoc analysis of the FILLY trial using a deep-learning model for spectral domain OCT (SD-OCT) autosegmentation. 246 patients were randomised 1:1:1 into pegcetacoplan monthly (PM), pegcetacoplan every other month (PEOM) and sham treatment (pooled) for 12 months of treatment and 6 months of therapy-free monitoring. Only participants with Heidelberg SD-OCT were included (n=197, single eye per participant).The primary efficacy endpoint was the square root transformed change in area of GA as complete RPE and outer retinal atrophy (cRORA) in each treatment arm at 12 months, with secondary endpoints including RPE loss, hypertransmission, PRD and intact macular area. RESULTS: Eyes treated PM showed significantly slower mean change of cRORA progression at 12 and 18 months (0.151 and 0.277 mm, p=0.0039; 0.251 and 0.396 mm, p=0.039, respectively) and RPE loss (0.147 and 0.287 mm, p=0.0008; 0.242 and 0.410 mm, p=0.00809). PEOM showed significantly slower mean change of RPE loss compared with sham at 12 months (p=0.0313). Intact macular areas were preserved in PM compared with sham at 12 and 18 months (p=0.0095 and p=0.044). PRD in isolation and intact macula areas was predictive of reduced cRORA growth at 12 months (coefficient 0.0195, p=0.01 and 0.00752, p=0.02, respectively) CONCLUSION: The OCT evidence suggests that pegcetacoplan slows progression of cRORA overall and RPE loss specifically while protecting the remaining photoreceptors and slowing the progression of healthy retina to iRORA

Evaluating the Effects of C3 Inhibition on Geographic Atrophy Progression from Deep-Learning OCT Quantification:A Split-Person Study

Introduction: To evaluate the effect pegcetacoplan, a C3 and C3b inhibitor, on the rate of progression of geographic atrophy (GA) as assessed by spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) using a split-person study design and deep-learning quantification. Methods: A post hoc analysis of phase 2 FILLY trial data comparing study (treated monthly, treated every other month and sham-treated) and fellow (untreated) eyes in a split-person study design was performed. This analysis included 288 eyes from 144 patients with bilateral GA from the FILLY phase 2 trial (Clinical Trials identifier: NCT02503332). Only patients with bilateral GA and without evidence of choroidal neovascularisation in either eye were included. Patient study eyes were treated with sham injections or with pegcetacoplan monthly (PM) or every other month (PEOM) for 12 months. SD-OCT scans of study and fellow eyes taken at baseline and 12 months were used for the analysis. The main outcomes were the annual change in the area of retinal pigment epithelial and outer retinal atrophy (RORA), its constituent features (photoreceptor degeneration [PRD], retinal pigment epithelium [RPE] loss, hypertransmission) and intact macula as compared to the untreated fellow eye. Results: Annual GA growth was reduced in eyes treated with PM versus untreated fellow eyes for OCT features, including RORA (study eye 0.792 vs. fellow eye 1.13 mm2; P = 0.003), PRD (0.739 vs. 1.23 mm2; P = 0.015), RPE-loss (0.789 vs. 1.17 mm2; P = 0.007) and intact macula (− 0.735 vs. − 1.29 mm2; P = 0.011). Similar (but not statistically significant) trends were observed with the PEOM treatment or when GA was quantified with fundus autofluorescence (FAF). The sham treatment demonstrated no effect. Pearson correlation coefficients showed concordance in the enlargement rate of GA between the study and fellow eyes in the sham (R = 0.64) and PEOM (R = 0.68) groups, but not in the PM group (R = 0.21). Conclusions: Pegcetacoplan-treated eyes demonstrated a reduction in spatial GA progression compared to their untreated counterparts. This effect was more evident on OCT than with FAF. Trial Registration: Clinical Trials identifier: NCT02503332.</p

Evaluating the Effects of C3 Inhibition on Geographic Atrophy Progression from Deep-Learning OCT Quantification: A Split-Person Study

INTRODUCTION: To evaluate the effect pegcetacoplan, a C3 and C3b inhibitor, on the rate of progression of geographic atrophy (GA) as assessed by spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) using a split-person study design and deep-learning quantification. METHODS: A post hoc analysis of phase 2 FILLY trial data comparing study (treated monthly, treated every other month and sham-treated) and fellow (untreated) eyes in a split-person study design was performed. This analysis included 288 eyes from 144 patients with bilateral GA from the FILLY phase 2 trial (Clinical Trials identifier: NCT02503332). Only patients with bilateral GA and without evidence of choroidal neovascularisation in either eye were included. Patient study eyes were treated with sham injections or with pegcetacoplan monthly (PM) or every other month (PEOM) for 12 months. SD-OCT scans of study and fellow eyes taken at baseline and 12 months were used for the analysis. The main outcomes were the annual change in the area of retinal pigment epithelial and outer retinal atrophy (RORA), its constituent features (photoreceptor degeneration [PRD], retinal pigment epithelium [RPE] loss, hypertransmission) and intact macula as compared to the untreated fellow eye. RESULTS: Annual GA growth was reduced in eyes treated with PM versus untreated fellow eyes for OCT features, including RORA (study eye 0.792 vs. fellow eye 1.13 mm2; P = 0.003), PRD (0.739 vs. 1.23 mm2; P = 0.015), RPE-loss (0.789 vs. 1.17 mm2; P = 0.007) and intact macula (- 0.735 vs. - 1.29 mm2; P = 0.011). Similar (but not statistically significant) trends were observed with the PEOM treatment or when GA was quantified with fundus autofluorescence (FAF). The sham treatment demonstrated no effect. Pearson correlation coefficients showed concordance in the enlargement rate of GA between the study and fellow eyes in the sham (R = 0.64) and PEOM (R = 0.68) groups, but not in the PM group (R = 0.21). CONCLUSIONS: Pegcetacoplan-treated eyes demonstrated a reduction in spatial GA progression compared to their untreated counterparts. This effect was more evident on OCT than with FAF. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical Trials identifier: NCT02503332

Predicting the immediate impact of national lockdown on neovascular age-related macular degeneration and associated visual morbidity: an INSIGHT Health Data Research Hub for Eye Health report

OBJECTIVE: Predicting the impact of neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) service disruption on visual outcomes following national lockdown in the UK to contain SARS-CoV-2. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This retrospective cohort study includes deidentified data from 2229 UK patients from the INSIGHT Health Data Research digital hub. We forecasted the number of treatment-naïve nAMD patients requiring anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) initiation during UK lockdown (16 March 2020 through 31 July 2020) at Moorfields Eye Hospital (MEH) and University Hospitals Birmingham (UHB). Best-measured visual acuity (VA) changes without anti-VEGF therapy were predicted using post hoc analysis of Minimally Classic/Occult Trial of the Anti-VEGF Antibody Ranibizumab in the Treatment of Neovascular AMD trial sham-control arm data (n=238). RESULTS: At our centres, 376 patients were predicted to require anti-VEGF initiation during lockdown (MEH: 325; UHB: 51). Without treatment, mean VA was projected to decline after 12 months. The proportion of eyes in the MEH cohort predicted to maintain the key positive visual outcome of ≥70 ETDRS letters (Snellen equivalent 6/12) fell from 25.5% at baseline to 5.8% at 12 months (UHB: 9.8%-7.8%). Similarly, eyes with VA <25 ETDRS letters (6/96) were predicted to increase from 4.3% to 14.2% at MEH (UHB: 5.9%-7.8%) after 12 months without treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Here, we demonstrate how combining data from a recently founded national digital health data repository with historical industry-funded clinical trial data can enhance predictive modelling in nAMD. The demonstrated detrimental effects of prolonged treatment delay should incentivise healthcare providers to support nAMD patients accessing care in safe environments. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00056836

Acute Putrescine Supplementation with Schwann Cell Implantation Improves Sensory and Serotonergic Axon Growth and Functional Recovery in Spinal Cord Injured Rats

Schwann cell (SC) transplantation exhibits significant potential for spinal cord injury (SCI) repair and its use as a therapeutic modality has now progressed to clinical trials for subacute and chronic human SCI. Although SC implants provide a receptive environment for axonal regrowth and support functional recovery in a number of experimental SCI models, axonal regeneration is largely limited to local systems and the behavioral improvements are modest without additional combinatory approaches. In the current study we investigated whether the concurrent delivery of the polyamine putrescine, started either 30 min or 1 week after SCI, could enhance the efficacy of SCs when implanted subacutely (1 week after injury) into the contused rat spinal cord. Polyamines are ubiquitous organic cations that play an important role in the regulation of the cell cycle, cell division, cytoskeletal organization, and cell differentiation. We show that the combination of putrescine with SCs provides a significant increase in implant size, an enhancement in axonal (sensory and serotonergic) sparing and/or growth, and improved open field locomotion after SCI, as compared to SC implantation alone. These findings demonstrate that polyamine supplementation can augment the effectiveness of SCs when used as a therapeutic approach for subacute SCI repair

AlzEye: longitudinal record-level linkage of ophthalmic imaging and hospital admissions of 353 157 patients in London, UK

PURPOSE: Retinal signatures of systemic disease ('oculomics') are increasingly being revealed through a combination of high-resolution ophthalmic imaging and sophisticated modelling strategies. Progress is currently limited not mainly by technical issues, but by the lack of large labelled datasets, a sine qua non for deep learning. Such data are derived from prospective epidemiological studies, in which retinal imaging is typically unimodal, cross-sectional, of modest number and relates to cohorts, which are not enriched with subpopulations of interest, such as those with systemic disease. We thus linked longitudinal multimodal retinal imaging from routinely collected National Health Service (NHS) data with systemic disease data from hospital admissions using a privacy-by-design third-party linkage approach. PARTICIPANTS: Between 1 January 2008 and 1 April 2018, 353 157 participants aged 40 years or older, who attended Moorfields Eye Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, a tertiary ophthalmic institution incorporating a principal central site, four district hubs and five satellite clinics in and around London, UK serving a catchment population of approximately six million people. FINDINGS TO DATE: Among the 353 157 individuals, 186 651 had a total of 1 337 711 Hospital Episode Statistics admitted patient care episodes. Systemic diagnoses recorded at these episodes include 12 022 patients with myocardial infarction, 11 735 with all-cause stroke and 13 363 with all-cause dementia. A total of 6 261 931 retinal images of seven different modalities and across three manufacturers were acquired from 1 54 830 patients. The majority of retinal images were retinal photographs (n=1 874 175) followed by optical coherence tomography (n=1 567 358). FUTURE PLANS: AlzEye combines the world's largest single institution retinal imaging database with nationally collected systemic data to create an exceptional large-scale, enriched cohort that reflects the diversity of the population served. First analyses will address cardiovascular diseases and dementia, with a view to identifying hidden retinal signatures that may lead to earlier detection and risk management of these life-threatening conditions

Polytene chromosome squash methods for studying transcription and epigenetic chromatin modification in Drosophila using antibodies

The giant polytene chromosomes from Drosophila third instar larval salivary glands provide an important model system for studying the architectural changes in chromatin morphology associated with the process of transcription initiation and elongation. Especially, analysis of the heat shock response has proved useful in correlating chromatin structure remodeling with transcriptional activity. An important tool for such studies is the labeling of polytene chromosome squash preparations with antibodies to the enzymes, transcription factors, or histone modifications of interest. However, in any immunohistochemical experiment there will be advantages and disadvantages to different methods of fixation and sample preparation, the relative merits of which must be balanced. Here we provide detailed protocols for polytene chromosome squash preparation and discuss their relative pros and cons in terms of suitability for reliable antibody labeling and preservation of high resolution chromatin structure